https://www.boomplayer.com/21711847_1C30399075

Hi guys, guy in bb is supernova from Ukraine. I don't know much about him but he seemed competent and his hud stats pretty standard reg ish.

I felt like he really only plays AA KK QQ and maybe JJ this way. Really don't think I will be having many bluffs here aside from 99 and I will have tonnes of value combos. (Qx full houses flushes). My question would be is his call reasonable on river? And is my bluff unreasonable (considering he snapped river). Any alternate lines that I could take other than showing down? Thanks!

I don't like his call at all. He is almost never going to see bluffs on that river. That is despite you repping very thin (basically boats/flushes). Pretty sure you are going to play Qx differently at least on one street.

As for your play, I don't blame you, but I kinda question your turn bet. Is it for value or as a bluff? Also, if it's for value, then why are you betting river again? You have one street of value here max, you should check back with enough showdown equity (not much, but still something).

If you are betting turn as a bluff it means you are overbluffing as you are going to have worse hands to bluff with, and 99 is way too strong to turn into a bluff on this board.

I would stab flop and showdown or stab turn (smaller sizing tho) and showdown. You can choose KJs/JTs/AJs/ATs as your bluff combos, at least it's going to make some sense in terms of blocking Qx combos and/or his overpairs.

You don't have to win every pot, you have to play your ranges correctly. I understand that you had a read on his hand but you just chose wrong part of your range to make this play.

EDIT: Also, I would probably underbluff this spot because it's super unlikely that an mtter is folding KK-AA to two streets of action in a spot like this. I think most regs will just station here and find all reasons to call off.

which flushes should you have here?

@madilee on the turn i bet with that sizing and this hand 1) it folds out hands that have equity against me 2) my objective was to jam rivers and fold out better hands than me.

i really dont think 99 is a strong hand here tbh and doesnt have much SD value vs BB squeeze range (perhaps AK)...unless my interpretation of his squeeze range is entirely wrong and he has lots of bluffs as well.

just really seemed like his hand was so face up and i could make him fold it..tbh i think he probably should be folding here as he doesnt beat much?

@randomkid: presumably all of the heart combos in my button calling range in a multi way pot. ie J10 K10 A10 KJ 79 etc

That button calling range was what I wanted to know.

There you go: you have plenty of potential better bluffs with all those hands in diamonds clubs and spades that have absolutly zero showdown (eg dont beat A high). You probably allready have enough bluffs with all those 9T TJ J9 gutshots which have more outs than bluffed pocket pairs on the turn, if you bluff 99 here (which still has at least some showdownvalue, other than all these other hands) you are way overbluffing, thus him folding KK would be a mistake.

Even though his hand is face up: If you overbluff that hard, he should just always call.

yeah that is a good point. definitely if im taking every hand in my range that isnt a boat/Qx/flush and turning it into a bluff here he has an easy call as i have a heavy weighting towards bluffs.

i really just don't think I'm bluffing with 100% of my non value hands in this spot tho and 99 feels the same as air really based on my assumption of his range. (When he calls turn i don't think I ever have the best hand). so yeah might just be better to cut losses here and hope to showdown vs AK or something.

that being said i still cant tell myself his call is good. i actually think its a disaster imo vs the population in MTTs.

anyways thx very much for thoughts guys much appreciated.

I don't want to be hard on you, but again:

Why wouldn't you bluff JTcc rather than 99? You say you wouldn't bluff 100% of your non value hands, but what makes 99 a particulary good candidate? you don't even have 1 heart in your hand, and every once in a while you might actually win a showdown with this hand. That just doesn't make any sense from a theory point of few.
You are takeing a way to high up in your range hand with no blocker benefits and 2 outs while you have a bunch of air which is somewhat likely to have 4/3outs (gutters and Ax vs KK) if it doesn't run into QQ. And you are trying to make him fold his entire transparent preflop value now bluffcatching range.
He actually calls with the best bluffcatcher he has (KhKx) blocking a bunch of possible flushes and Qx, while unblocking all said gutshots.
And yet you blame him because you think it's bad vs population? Maybe he has a read on you? maybe not, but decided to just not fold the very best bluffcatchers (KK and AA with one heart) to at least somewhat defand his range. Your suggestion would be he should simply fold everything but the one combination of QQ he has?

It's obviously conveniant to say "well, I just don't bluff 100%, and 99 has 0 showdown after beeing called on the turn, so all those bluffs are of equal value and he was just fortunate to run into a bluff and not a value hand" while in reallity to me it seams like you just tried to attack a capped range not looking at your own range and overbluffing heavily.

Also... if we talk population, you are not repping Qx too well as most of the people just start betting the flop, especially in a Prog KO, so even though I might be somewhat biased now, your hand looks somewhat bluffy (also a lot of people would fold TJs type hands to this squeeze size pre, which would leave you with a very limited number of flushes if villain has the Kh)

Blocker effects come to mind

Even though I do think 99 is too strong to start bluffing, would try to get to sd and win somehow vs ak and whatever other hand.

Why would 99 have better blockers than JTcc?

E: Because of BBs presumed range I also think blockers can really be kind of ignored in this spot, I just think the factors to decide whether to bluff/not bluff should just be the absence showdown value and equity

I would snap you off here for sure, don't think it's very credible at all and pretty FPS. Mainly repping 88 and occasionally a flush. You have a queen or 55-66 like 0% of the time. Also when people check-call turn with their obvious overpair they don't fold river because they know that you know that they have an overpair and don't want to get exploited.

turn bet is ok
I'd bet maybe a touch smaller for value protection. River is just an easy x imo

Seems like a fold pre to the 3b, check the turn or size way smaller, and check otr.

Are you calling the huge 3bet pre with any of these hands ?
In my world, you should not have any Q, almost no flush (AKhh), and not many boats (not sure calling pre with 55 is fine, maybe with a limper ?) => nice call by V.

That's why I asked for the range in the first place, you guys should not forget this is a prof KO preflop calling ranges with hands that can potentially play big pots with decent equity get wider...
Not saying it's correct to peal 97s there, just saying I see this kind of often ��

@randomkid: yeah, i was attacking a capped range exactly. perhaps, i was not considering that im way over bluffing i just find that the population will be over folding this spot. (not to mention how many value hands i will have)...i really dont think blockers are overly relevant here other than to balance my frequencies, as im attacking the narrow/vulnerable range? and yes he prob does have the nut bluff catcher with the K of hearts... really doubt most guys in my shoes with ABI 16$ arent honest in this spot and only showing up with a nutted range on the river (i guess i sort of prove that theory wrong tho)

ty for thoughts guys will reconsider this next time before blasting off here

i think my pre flop defense ranges are way higher than most of the above guys are suggesting (FWIW i dont know if thats good or bad in a prog KO), i think suited/connected/set mines etc have way more value here because of the bounty factor, maybe its spew.)

Pf is fine and std w a hand like this and one other caller already in. Think you are over estimating the value combos you can rly show up with here.

what the hell is going on here? 1.4k ott and x riv. you should also just protbet flop small.

his play seems fine vs. you
yes pbb bad vs. population

^ ya pretty decent post

well what hands do you think you represent.
after him calling the turn you must give him something. woudl you bet a Q on the river after check flop, call on the turn? he coudl easily rep AK of hearts or similar.

so you either rep. a fullhouse or a flush. but which flush would call the raise but not reraise and call the 3 bet preflop?
AK he would expect to reraise, AQ might not bet the river, leaves us AJ, A10, KJ, K10 and similar. all of em questionable flat calls for 10% of your stack.

you realyl smell like a pocket pair

agree

bet flop check turn call river