Originally Posted by Sly Caveat
We need more than 25%. Not sure where you got that number. Plus that is not counting ICM. Plus none of that shows how it's better than calling anyway.
assume we ALWAYS get one caller, then we are shoving 9.6BB to win 0.5+1+2.2*3+0.1*9+9.6+8.4=27BB, that gives 2.81 to 1 pot odds, which means we need 26.2% equity to BE.
and LOL@ concerning about ICM here ,we are the shortest stack with 2nd shortest having 50% more chips than us(15BB),it's not like he's gonna bust any time soon.also, having a 27BB stack in a 20 dollar tournament(w/e it is, 20c,20fo,20r,20q) for busto soon means there will be bunch of good spots coming rather than have to wait for open shove spots with 8.6BB if we flat and lose the hand(c/f flop)
plus, flatting pre simply give ourselves room to make mistakes on the flop(not shoving correct flops) while shoving pre is pretty simple mistake free move.
And for pre FE part,yes we are very likely to get called. but there has to be even a little bit of FE. both MP1 and CO can be reasonablely light there cos of their stack sizes . BTN almost always has a hand(most likely pairs up to TT,AQ-,suited broadways ) but he's clearly scared to get in pre otherwise he should/would have just shoved pre.