if you fold there are 3 people with ~equal stacks, so you will be at worst 66% to win a seat (round up to at least 70% because there's another guy with 16k and people are awful at sats). Using 70%, if he jams any 2 then call at widest 99+ (I would fold 99 and likely TT). Calling AKs is always bad.
wauw. surprised by that tbh. We are nowhere near a seat. Its far from being a lock and two players need to bust still.. I might agree that AJ AQ is a fold. But AK as well? 99 and TT folding?
next pay jump is $300.. we aren't that far from a seat either.. obviously it's not a lock.
99 is usually a call before ak (more equity vs super wide range) but dunno if a reg "bothers" to jam atc with his stack in to 12/16bb stacks
so how would that affect our range in your opinion?
the one you gave sounds reasonable to me, though I'd weight it more towards pairs. If he's shoving any 2 then >65% hands are 77,AJs,AKo so something like that I guess.
We can obviously ICM this, but at the table I would calculate like this: if we fold we got 4 equal stacks, one twice as big and one a lock for a seat.
Compared to winning a seat, place 6th 'loses' 670$ and 5th 'loses' 380$ for a total 'loss' of 1050$.
Estimating the 'loss' over the stacks quickly it would like something like; 230, 230, 230, 230, 110, 20
So our stack should be worth around 470$ now. Doubling will make it worth ~630$. So we need 470$/630$ = 75% equity to call, making TT a close call.
In reality we would fold TT and debate about JJ (77% equity), because we can assume we got a fairly big edge here.
Two Plus Two
X
to call.
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