$580 WSOPC event at Harrahs Cherokee. Starting stack was 12k.

Hero (~10.5k): My image is a young white guy wearing a hoody with the hood up. I have opened an above average amount of pots and I'm fairly certain I've cbet 100% if not very close to 100% of flops. I haven't played any big pots prior to this and am unsure if I even showed anything down.

Raymer (covers barely, maybe by 1k): Hes opened a decent amount of pots as well and has been betting often but keeping the pots small.

Random lady: Not really relevant to the hand but she doesn't have much of a clue what shes doing.

Suits are irrelevant for the hand. The board was rainbow.

100/200 Full 9 handed table

I open UTG to 500 with 99. Raymer calls from UTG+2 and the random lady calls next seat over. Flop 3 ways.

Flop (1800) 346. I cbet 800, Raymer makes it 2k, lady folds, Hero???

I want some comments then I'll post what happened.

Does random lady call a lot?

Shes probably been playing an average VPIP but has been calling in spots postflop where it doesn't really make sense to. Ex. she called a river bet with A7 on a 5798x board. She hasn't played any pots yet where shes put a lot of chips in though.

I dont know how is his range to play this spot, some as these live players have some different ranges and plays, but I don't think you should fold there. I put in a range of 77-33,A9o,A6o-A5o,76o,65o,54o,A9s,A6s-A3s,KQs,87s,76s,65s,54s,[35]AA-88,75s,64s[/35], which includes overpairs 50%, as I dont know if he flats those pre or if re raises it otf, some connectors as semi-bluffs, tptk, sets and a few random bluffs w/ A9 and KQs and our equity is still 57% vs that range.

One thing is that you should make a decision otf, in my opinion this decision should be either gii otf or call down. Being oop makes our life much more difficult and given SPR we wont be able to not gii to the river if V wishes, and as most turn and rivers will be pretty scary for our hand, I would prefer to gii otf, but I see no problems w/ close your eyes and call down turn and river.

Of course if you think his range is much tighter than this one I used you may use an argument to fold, but I don't think so...

Def think he's going to play draws and value hands like this - also think this is a good spot for him to slow play big overpair pre. I don't like it but gonna fold flop and wait for the softer spots to give me chips

I think that range is too wide. Full handed, UTG+2 facing a raise UTG raise with 6 players still left to act. Is he really going to have crappy aces and raggy low connector type hands in his range here?

I put that range because I see much of these live mtt players call w/ those type of hands pre 50BB deep. Anyway, if we use a narrower pre flop range, it changes his value hands as well, so our equity would continue good. Vs a range of 77-33,A9o,KQo,A9s,A6s-A5s,KQs,87s,76s,65s,[40]AA-88[/40] we still have 55% equity. Notice that I used A9 and KQ as random bluffs, it doesn't mean that those are the hands, and I still think we could consider his range more weighted w/ bluffs.

I've played with Raymer a few hours over a couple of WSOPc events. I seriously doubt he's bluffing or raising worse here often. This early, he likely has an overpair (we do beat 2 of them) or better. I like the bet OTF, but I think I reluctantly fold now. 1,200 is too much to call oop vs. a solid player.

99 is just such a nightmare hand to achieve full value with this deep. Pretty easy b/f on this flop as you can't handle any more heat on the turn/riv and by the time you get to the river your range is absolutely crushed by his

Yea easy bf especially with the weaker player involved

Hand is too strong to fold right now. I would all and reeval turn.

Prolly folding. He seems kinda on the nittiet side and can find a better spot against random live muppets

He's so obviously FOS.

SHIP IT!!!!!

I call and evaluate turn or 3 bet ....calling is weak since your out of position and probably check folding many turns

So my thought process was that since I was cbetting so much, somebody was eventually going to play back at me. I wouldn't expect him to raise an overpair here, and although he could raise a set, he may elect to just call with it to keep the lady behind in. This may be a spot where I level myself but I gotta give Raymer credit as a thinking opponent who realizes I'm cbetting so much.

So I elected to call and reevalute on the turn but probably not fold.

Turn was a 6 and put a backdoor flush out.

Pot is 5.8k. Hero checks, Raymer bets 3k.

Hero ???
Fold, call and reevaluate river, shove for ~5k more?

otf:
shipping QQ+
folding TT-

ott:
you called flop based on a ~100cbet image. V 3k is entirely predictable. so is the jam that's coming otr. shoving just folds out worse and is called by all better, so c/c c/c all the way home. hope he has A5s or 77 not TT+.

Snap fold. You were the UTG raiser, he has a rec lady behind that's going to continue pretty wide (probably), and he still raises? 99 beats like 10% of his range and you can't get value from those hands since you're OOP. All other hands crush you. Find a better spot imo.

fossilman doesn't care about your cbet percentage or position of your hoody... fold is a fold

Your beat. He has JJ or QQ..

Easy fold to the flop raise when he has a player behind...don't think we are getting exploited much here when the lady has a wide range preflop and could easily smash this flop.

Also we have about 50% equity against most of his semibluffs...60% against some bad semi bluffs...and <20% against made hands... would be a different story on a two-tone board

This depends on the image of the rest of the table. Is UTG+2 gonna flat with a better pair with the rest of the table left to act?

not really

I think he likely has 10s or JJ here as this is a raise to gain more information, not build a pot. I doubt he's calling an all in ever if you want to steal this pot though

you serious man he probably has 9 combos of sets and 12 combos of TT-JJ the latter of which are slightly more likely to flat on this texture. Fossilman plays old school sneaky set mine/raise flop style so all those sets are in there