I would bet/call river... all flush and straight draws missed... he's repping really narrow here and I would have to see it (unless history leads me to believe villain wouldn't bluff here).

Also, I have no real problem with sizing... I think more on the turn would be ok, too, but you keep in a lot of weaker hands this way and it really seems fine to me. After checking flop and betting 40% pot on turn, I definitely value bet river here. And (vs. most villains) I look up the raise that basically reps 9x (or approx. 147 missed draws).

Which combos are you talking about? Remember he checks flop, calls turn.. I dont think there are that many draws in his range that play this way.

Looked over the hand again... I agree that he's unlikely to play big draws this way. I probably got a little too cute at the end of my post and tossed that last part in as a quick half-joke without thinking it through thoroughly enough.

I do think he could definitely be pot controlling some draws (non-monsters) and then bluff-raising the river. However, my "147 missed draws" comment sounds like I'm including every possible draw, which -- you're right -- doesn't really fit.

I think Shove> Fold > Call,
I think you have close to the bare minimum to bluff, and with 20k I just bet/ fold...

What do you try to represent by shoving?

So in retrospect, you guys like checking/calling > bet/whatever?

It seems once we get to the river, we have to decide if he is more likely to take the check back flop/call turn line with one pair type hands or draws. Obviously check/calling river is better when we think he is taking this line with draws. But his line, up to the river, just seems like a really weird line to take with a draw, which makes me think bet/folding river has to be best.

I'm just trying to figure out a range of hands that take this line on the flop and turn, and then versus that range, it is best to check/call, and I'm having trouble doing so...But I'm willing to hear other arguments to change my mind.

bet/shove river is best

Love these comments in HS MTT posts where people just make bolt statements without any thoughts. What makes you believe bet/shove is best?

Calling something out of nowhere is easy.

I think we are folding to 2 combos of A9s because that's the only 9x hands that check back the flop...every other hand that beats us bets the flop IMO or raises turn...agree with kleath that we aren't deep enough to jam as a bluff therefore call

fwiw I like every street to this point and I assume we were planning to c/r flop and check all turned straights?

Its possible he plays KQ this way but if he flops a straight when you hold a blocker congrats

-ToddTerry

Isn't Tx so much of his range as played

Don't like a shove here, like others have said, you're likely repping too thin to get him to fold anything good.
Don't like calling because his line isn't exactly bluffy and if he's tricky/has the right image he could be doing this as thin as AJ or even a strangely played KK/AA.

Also I disagree with Todd that river bet is too thin, esp after turn sizing, I don't see why you can't get called by plenty of Tx, occasional worse Qx, or something like 88.

Seems like a pretty clear bet/fold to me!

So I was villain in this hand...

agree with this to a certain extent, tho there are hands here that Id check back and call this size bet with but not like 75% pot.

This is pretty spot on, esp the bolded.

When I raise this river after taking a pot control line im aware that an elite player such as mickey is going to realise my range is fairly capped in terms of value as most generic regs are going to bet flop with big hands here close to 100% of the time and there are very few bluffs in this range as played.

Couple this with the turn sizing, Im going to be raise/calling pretty thin in this spot, as thin even as dfish highlighted above, making shoving a mistake.

I hate my river sizing though, think i should def make it smaller if calling off, got caught between two minds of trying to get calls or trying to get shoves and i think mickeys too good to bet/call here so should aim solely at getting shoves.

Think mickey played the hand close to perfectly, with turn sizing maybe a little small (imo)

I feel like I am sounding like a broken record with my HSMTT posts lately, but bet way bigger on turn, much closer to full pot. People's elasticity just goes way down in position, and even if they should people don't check back a 9 or T here and then fold to a turn lead very often.

As played, I'd bet river smaller, especially if you are gonna bet/jam. Consider a 38% pot bet and jam over a raise vs a 53% pot bet.

If he has a missed draw, I think it's better to bet 38% because he's more likely to try to bluff you, so you win more chips.

If he has KT or AT, he's gonna sometimes call, sometimes fold and sometimes raise vs 53%. Against 38%, he will call more, and raise more and fold less, I think, so 38% is better here too.

Against 88 or 56 or something, idk it depends on how often he turns these into bluffs as well, how often he calls, etc. I get called in this spot all the F time, but maybe that's just me. But I'd wager he calls or raises more, and folds much less. I DO think that this is a spot where he's highly sensitive to bet size.

Against AJ/89/AA/KK, I feel like he just calls bigger bets more frequently or raise/sigh calls, and against a smaller bet, he raise/folds with a really huge frequency, and calls less. And he's not folding, so if he just calls against 38% then he would have just called against 53% too, so you lose less there as well.

Against [he has it], you lose all your chips bet/jamming regardless of size, and lose fewer chips bet/folding or bet/calling 58% vs 38%.... but if you are gonna bet/jam 53% then you might as well bet/jam 38% because I think it works way better against the rest of his range.

So anyway, some of these assumptions are kind of haphazard, but I think if you are gonna bet/jam, then 38% is a better size to lead than 53%

Hmm, reread OP, didn't realize how shallow you are by the river. Makes me like a smaller bet even more if you are gonna bet/jam, but makes betting 53% and folding to a riase much more viable as well, especially with blocker considerations blah blah blah.

Main reasons I don't like bet/jam as played is cuz it just feels like one of those hands where in theory Villain SHOULD fold a lot but in practice he goes "whatever, pot oddz lol" and presses call b/c if he's wrong he has an excuse/bad beat story for why he busted and has other tables to play anyway.

Seems more like 36.5 or 54.25 would be much, much more effective.



Sorry Galen, couldn't resist