I dont have much history with villian but we just recognize each other from live/online tournaments, I think he is solid and maybe slightly on the tighter side but nothing outrageous by any means. Thoughts on shoving the river here?

MP2: 2,988 (5 bb)
MP3: 26,860 (44.8 bb)
CO: 27,484 (45.8 bb)
BTN: 11,174 (18.6 bb)
SB: 9,381 (15.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 25,426 (42.4 bb)
UTG+2: 32,660 (54.4 bb)
MP1: 36,732 (61.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q J
4 folds, CO raises to 1,200, 2 folds, Hero calls 600

Flop: (3,180) 9 J T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (3,180) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets 1,325, CO calls 1,325

River: (5,830) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets 3,111, CO raises to 9,844, Hero really wants to shove...

If he has 9x he block many combos of hands we want to rep (also we prob 3bet 99+), personally I wouldnt shove, prob just think it is not worth it

+ I think you bet more with straights/2 pairs on the turn

I think he is vulnerable to it, given his range and your read. But you're only repping T9/J9/55 and your turn bet is really small for those hands. If he has one of the 9s in his hand, he's probably going to be suspicious. Did you think about another option on the river, like c/c or b/c? He probably has a lot of air in his range.

i think calling is better than shove

doubt hes ever bluffing with that sizing in this spot vs mement with this line

River bet is too thin IMO.

yeah I think the river bet is pretty bad, not sure why I did it.

I dont think he is bluffing very often either, I just think his range is a lot more capped than mine is.


I dont think there is any reason I cant shove the river with a straight given how hard it is for him to have a boat but I do agree that the nine blocker is a pretty big problem.

Nits are gonna nit

I think it's fine as long as you're jamming 78 too. Think river is close between a bet and a check but think you should be going either smaller with your whole range and betting this hand, or bigger with your whole range and checking it.

Why do you guys think he isn't bluffing a lot here? I think he floats that small turn bet with a ton of stuff. The 9 is a decent card to rep and we could easily have less than a 9 ourselves.

i think the river is a clear valuebet.. regs look up this river all the time(but probaly just vs me)

What's he supposed to have here? I think he's bluffing.

I think you dug yourself a hole with this one...

First, I would have lead out on the flop. The reason for this is b/c you have top pair with OE straight draw and you don't want to let him peel the turn cheaply. If you bet here and he calls or raises, this only helps you as it gives you more information. If he has a hand like AJ or a set, he will surely almost surely raise the flop, letting you know that if you call you need to make your straight to win.

Secondly, your turn bet was way too small. You need to be betting close to 70% of the pot here. You already let him peel the turn for free. It's time to make him pay something for the river. Your weak turn bet screamed I have some pair and a draw or a combination, if I don't hit please take the pot from me!

I agree with Sly about the river. With the route you took, your best options are c-b or c-c on the river. This keeps the pot small and gives him an opportunity to bluff his missed draws and you can call down.

turn bets too small, on a checked back board hes either folding to a 33-100% pot bet or hes not, very few hands of his are going to be deciding the turn based on your sizing, and if anything should look valuey to him. Granted you probably use this sizing to bluff too but you'd use it as a bluff because his check back range is either a give up unimproved or its planning to call a turn unimproved and sizings not going to change that so you might as well save chips, conversely here our hand is way ahead of his check back flop range so we should want to bet bigger to get more chips in the middle and allow us to make a bigger river bet.

As for the river I dont think we're deep enough to shove, hes gonna sigh call alot of those value hands you want him to fold bc he'll be getting 3 to 1 and **** it theorem. I would probably want to call before Id shove, though if you had like 33k effective or something then I think its viable to shove. Call and fold seem close and just depends on what you think his tendencies are likely to be riverwise

he can def. check back the flop with a 9. I agree with kleath for a bigger turn sizing and the river I need to know he can actually fold big hands there like 9x. because that's the only hand he's got/reps.

However, looking at our range I think he will assume that with a flopped straight we always bet bigger on the turn to get more money in the pot and therefor never have a straight. The same goes for flopped 2pair hands.

So, if villain reads hands and sizings at all he'll realize this and that makes shoving bad and we should decide to call or fold rather then shove imo.

He could def turn AQ AK into a bluff on the river (12 + 16 = 28 combos) some % off the time and value raise the river with a 9 (89 A9 K9 Q9 79 = 5 * 8 = 40 combos) given we never have a fh or straight here.
I don't see him showing up with random hands here often given flop check, turn call. So we can exclude that most % of the time.

Looking at the number of combo's that we beat vs the combos that he checks back and might turn into a bluff (assume its ~60% time he'll turn AQ AK into a bluff, that only leaves 16,8 combo's), I think we should fold here simply based on combo's..

Here we are good 29.5% of the time and we need 35.8% to break-even.

If we could add AJ KJ in his bluff range as well (and he wont always bluff them, so I assume 60% again) we can add another 14,4 combo's into his range. That makes a total of 31,2.

That means calling would win the pot ~43.8% of the time. And we need only 35.8%.


*** All % you have to fill in yourself and change the outcome, so feel free to play with them ***