Doubt rdcrsn shows up with 5x here hardly ever and I guess TT or 22 is probable but continuing with TT on the flop is maybe not something he does 100%. It is weird because Brian could have some 5x too. Hard to put rdcrsn on a hand cuz idk if QQ should even bet turn unless it is a weird elaborate bluff to get higher pairs of Brian to fold bc of Jaka but he can't expect AA KK to fold.
Seems kinda bad...if BH thinks rdcrsn is tight, he won't have 5x and won't have 22 either. so his value range is exactly {TT,55} OTT? and if thats what BH thinks...thats the nut worst play to check fold, since we somewhat attempt to underrep our hand to induce some sort of action. Also can't see how rdcsn would flat the flop with TT after Jaka calls if he is "this tight"...
That being said, lets assume he overcalls with TT 20-30% of the time...OTT his polarized value range is like 1.7 combos on average...
But why does rdcrsn have to be polarized? I'd bet QQ there for value all day.
I honestly think he made an "in the moment, instinct based decision" and later realized that it may not be optimal and posts it to either look super sick while getting peoples opinions...
the comments bother me so much - all the people have this mentality "if a beast does it, it must be genius"...but everyone makes mistakes...i bet if a random did that we'd call him a nitbox
dont think he will have 22 in his range or 5x (1% of the time A5s but we block 2 combo) so its either 55 or TT and thats 5 combos total. I think he will overcall the flop w 99 TT JJ QQ and x% of the time KK that doesnt 3b pre. He will bet the turn w 5 combos that beats us and pbb bet JJ QQ KK for protection/value.
Im calling turn and deciding river.
It's obviously a super exploitable fold, I'm betting that he's not exploiting me. I actually think the most logical hands for him to bet that I'm beating are A4s/A3s, but I do block those heavily. I'm honestly torn on whether KK-JJ are in the range, but I think I underweighted that possibility in the moment. I don't think having a read that a player is on the tighter side means he can't have 22 given stack depths, but I could be wrong on that. I dunno, I think it's close and interesting.
The more I think about it his line looks a lot like KK or QQ b/f turn (maybe b/c) but most importantly trying to value bet and possibly get to showdown cheap being in position because BH range is pretty much capped at big 2 pair hands and some small combos of trips, but just about no full house+
not sure why you guys put QQ/KK into his range - hes prob 3 betting those at a very high rate......Id also imagine rdcrsn overcalls alot more suited 5x once Faraz comes into the pot.....even if rdcrsn had QQ him vbetting this turn isnt too good - brians value range crushes QQ and faraz lurking in the background isnt fun....think if we check the turn its a definite fold
Very close spot. I don't think his range is 22-55, although he may flat with faraz in. I think I like a b/f on turn or even c/c, re-evaluate river. A2ss should be a fold pre and I he should be 3b QQ 100% of time against faraz. Nitty fold but it's early I don't mind it
A decent amount of the A5/22/55/other 5x combos are mucked at one of the two decision points pf, and he might fold TT OTF some of the time as well.
OTOH he probably also realizes that valuebetting KK- OTT is really thin vs two top players and it's very unlikely for him to get here with a hand that he should bluff.
So I think we're looking at <10 or even <5 combos in his betting range, and it's hard to find a realistically weighted combination of AA/KK/A5s/TT/others where we don't have the required 22% equity. OTR I expect him to check behind the combos <= our hand, so the potodds OTT are all that matter.
KK surely would have raised Jaka's opening raise pre-flop
QQ would have likely raised prefrop as well, but not always
JJ,TT,99,88 might've just called Jaka's preflop raise and then flatted the AA preflop reraise.
On the turn, you need to ask how many hands is rdcrsn bluffing (AK, AQ or less), how many hands is he betting for value thinking he is best (JJ, 99, 88, etc.), and how many hands he is betting that has AA smoked (TT, 22, and 5x).
I think you have to call the turn, there just aren't that many hands that beat you and there are way more hands you beat that he could be betting for value or as a bluff. I think it is way to specific to think just because he bets turn, he must have spiked a T on turn for his TT hand. Very surprised to see this fold. I think it's far too easy to fall into the trap of always thinking your opponent must've hit a set against you. I think you have to play this hand as though you are still best, and if he does have a set, oh well. But I think you are giving up way too much value by check/folding the turn in this spot, after it went bet/call/call on flop.