Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinGChapman
Without any other info, expect UTG raise for 4x BB to be a vulnerable pair or big Ace like 99, 10-10, JJ, QQ, AK, AQ, AJ and almost never 66. C-bet over your check seems pretty standard with any of these, including sets since there are so many draws. Flat on flop is fine, and if you're testing to see if he's just presenting with no pair (e.g., AK, AQ, AJ) and he might just fold to pressure, no need to raise so much and get yourself so pot committed and leaving yourself less than pot-sized bet behind if he calls. Are you planning to call a re-shove?
After villain calls your huge raise, his range is pretty limited to sets and overpairs and the 9 on the turn doesn't give him much reason to fold a worse hand unless he think's you are raising to 11K with A-9 so you're turning your hand into a huge semi-bluff, which is one of your two options. The other is to check and fold to a bet. You took your shot with the big flop raise and got called. Now you have very little fold equity since villain with fewer chips than you is even more pot committed than you are. I guess you can present like you are A-9 and hope for a fold or that you catch one of your many outs on the river, but I would check and hope you can get a free river since villain probably figures that you are calling anything he could bet and so there is no point in putting all his chips in and he may well check back.
I am the effective stack villain has me covered. Once I raise this flop I am willing to get it all in as versus his overpairs (JJ through KK) we have 60 percent equity and even vs his sets we have almost 40 percent equity. My read on this guy was that he's the sort of guy who's just going to get a set in on the flop and think if he's beat that's unlucky. I thought I'd use a bigger flop raise size as that would have more fold
equity vs overpairs and it also balances with the times we flop straights and other value hands like two pairs. On the turn I jam thinking I am somewhat balanced as I would jam a lot of my flopped straights here and my 66/88 for value as there a lot of river cards that could kill the action or cause me to lose if I didn't have a flopped straight.
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