Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbb33
Care to articulate as to why?
We have figured out that he is capable of cold 4balling light in this somewhat standard spot to do it but we don't know if he can 6bet light over a 5bet over a cold 4bet. He's still just some 100ABI reg, and as long as we don't know he's graduated from ImDaNuts College we can't really assume that. I think that we are going to make a huge mistake if we get it in dominated and are wrong in the sense that he only 6bets the nuts, but if we play it the nitty way and get owned because he actually is a daize in disguise it's okay big picture-wise since we're still going to have a lot of chips, and the mistake we make there is much much smaller. Like when we jam into nizzles we light like $3k+ or whatever on fire, but when we get owned and 5b/fold we only get owned for a fraction of that.
I'm not a math guy so I didn't do the ICM math on this but my hunch says that he has to be shoving an absurd amount of worse aces and queens for a 5bet/call to be +$ev although it's obviously +cEV.
So when we 5bet/fold we might occasionally (against a random 100abi reg on ipoker this still has to be pretty rare) make a mistake when we fail to get it in against AJ or something. But what I think happens much more often IF he even wants to play back against us is that he'll just flat, often with hands that *we* dominate so he'll fold to cbets a lot and maybe sometimes stack off with worse hands on like Qxx flops etc. If he flats it's not a disaster, and if he really is oi enough to 6ball napkins there then good for him, next hand please.
I think shove is better than 5b/call for icm reasons but this could be proven wrong if someone could actually be arsed to do the math. It's obviously extremely +cEV to stick it in and even $ev-wise it doesn't feel like it's far away from 5b/fold.
I think 5b/call and flat the 4bet feel really close in value, and they both seem a notch worse than the previous two options. The downside of 5b/calling is the icm stuff and the downside of flatting the 4bet is that I don't know how we are going to own him on most flops we don't hit in some fashion since the pot is going to be slightly too big and our stacks are too short and we are OOP (if we were OTB I think calling would be way better).
Folding sucks because we have an ace and a queen against a guy who can cold 4b light.
I still think that it's all so close that even if we were a) suited or b) on the button calling would become the best option.
The above is just the way I see it but I'm eagerly awaiting for someone smarter than me to break this down since that's why I posted the hand anyway. Happy new year ****s!
Last edited by Chuck Bass; 12-31-2012 at 06:53 PM.