Really not happy about it, but I fold. BTW, I think AQ (except ss) is more unlikely to call the flop bet. KK isn't a good bluff catcher here.

Thanks for all the comments guys, I ended up folding and he did not show. Guess we'll never know.

Must say I do not see this as a decision, very clear fold. Turn is interesting though, I like your check considering how deep you are.

easy fold otr given your stack(you still have a monster 77bb stack broseph). Wet board vs. your hand-dont need to play hero here. The only hand we beat is a busted flush draw. I doubt he is shoving j10, qj, q10, AQ, KQ here as he prob. makes crying call with these unless he is a spew and just trying to blow you off AA, KK(i doubt it because he prob. put AK in your range and has to know you are never folding AK here) and just think he has it more than vs. times he is bluffing. Also, I think your sizing on the flop is WAY too big; 9-10kish should get the same result. Might also go with smaller 3bet pf. like 7500.

Im no pro...

Surely by not firing on the turn you have shown weakness and the villian can exploit that on the river if you bet? by not firing on the turn you have said im not sure about my hand.

I would fire 30k on the turn and if villain re raises then I fold, if he flats the turn and then checks into me on the river I can check also, if he bets into me on the river i can fold.

I lose the same amount as chips as you if we're no good but atleast i know where I am, checking the turn imo leaves you in a situation where you dont know where you are.

The villain cant think the river 3 has helped you, so when you bet 30k on the river after checking the turn villian knows your not 100% happy with your hand

Trying to be constructive, please feel free to pick these theories to pieces as im no pro!

I dunno, I don't think this is that easy a fold. I think Hero looks weak when he checks on this turn and villain takes advantage on the river. Villain knows the best you can have on the turn is a 1 pair hand, because you will be betting anything else with a flush draw there.

Theres a reason you are "no pro" imo. You are recommending, while he has draws to the nuts. To bet himself out of his draw on the turn when checking back allowed him to see another card. The check back on the turn was fabulous. Lead riiver for less so it looks like value? maybe he thinks 30k is a bluff and you induced a rebluff or, the more likely situation he has 1010, jj, qq, ak, a3 or kitcccheeeennnssss 10-3. ;p. As played fold comfortably dont try to hero call

On the turn when i have been the aggressor/lead better all hand, I dont like taking a free card making me look weak & hoping to hit a 20% draw and i dont like giving villian a free card either. Villian could be drawing at least 50% of the time so it wouldnt be hard to get him of his draw with one card to come.
4 out of 5 times I dont hit my draw. If you then river bet it has no believability inducing a bluff from the villian.

According to your likely situation above you think your losing on the turn, so checks ok, but then why bet river at all? just check it the 3 hasnt helped you.

I don't agree that we would automatically double-barrel anything better than one pair simply because there is a flush draw on the board. Chances the villain 1) has exactly two spades in his hand and 2) then hits a spade on the river are quite low... this is the sort of (IMO faulty) reasoning I see when somebody raises pre w KK, gets one caller, flops K72 with two of a suit and piles before flipping the KK and saying how they had to bet big because of the flush draw. Running some math with possible ranges for villains in these sorts of spots + chances of draws coming in (and how much you'll think you will win/lose vs. those ranges on different river cards, etc., etc.) reveals that the concept of "protecting your hand" is pretty overrated in most spots.

Checking the turn also widens our range and allows us to get paid off lighter on the river. River check-raise bluffs (at least from randoms in $400 tourneys) don't happen often enough to really make it worth taking lines specifically to prevent them. Our turn check pot controls/widens our range and makes river value bet much more profitable. IMO line until the river is fine.

On the river, a random in a $400 tournament just river-check-raised us on a wet board when we are the only other player with a big enough stack to hurt him. He will almost always have it. We should fold our overpair, lose the minimum, and move on to the next hand.

Checking turn accomplishes a few things. 1 pot control, we are usually not in great shape playing for stacks, and we cant get bluffed on the turn. 2 it allows opponent to bluff river. 3 it may get a river bet paid off that opponent would not call on turn for fear of facing a river bet with a marginal holding.

Obv this all depends on our opponent. If theyre stationy and straight forward, then by all means b/f turn and probably size it on the small side.

I am thinking about it and I do think checking the turn is best in this spot. But I think it does make the hero's range narrowed (not wider as some of you are suggesting). How often do you see someone in the hero's spot check TTT, JJJ, QQQ, or a straight in this spot? Practically never, because people almost always try to play for stacks. Bet 25 - 30K and then all-in on the river. Especially on this type of board.

When I say narrowed (I mean that the hero is not going to have a monster, much more likely a hand that has some showdown value)

Completely agree. But a huge % of opponents aren't going to adjust by c/r bluffing river, so it's a moot point. It's especially unlikely since there aren't many hand combos that villain will get to river with, and most of them are pairs he will would have to turn into a bluff. Like I said in my first response it's a sweet check/shove bluff spot if I were villain in this hand.

Yeah for the above reasons if villain leads river we prob have to call IMO. But very very few villains will put us on this hand then try to blow us off of it after we make a big river bet.

If he's bluffing you, you salute the guy! Oh Mike Sextonisms.