We are playing 5-handed as seats are still getting filled in the Millionaire Maker. Hero has opened first 2 hands with a small raise (125) and villain has come along for both hands. Both hero & villain have taken down a small pot. Hand #3:

7,500 starting stack
Blinds: 25/50

Folds to hero who raises to 125 on the button with 103

SB folds, BB (villain) calls

Flop: 7 8x Jx

BB checks, hero bets 250, BB calls

Turn: K

BB checks, hero bets 375, BB calls

River: 6

BB checks, hero bets 2,150, BB raises to 5,000

Hero's first instinct is to just call but shoving and folding are both considerations in this spot. Thoughts?

I think you are good 1/4 of the time here to warrant the call. Do not shove this so early readless. Can't fold it either getting 3:1. Obv we can fold pre and when we do open, it's fine to check flop too on that board given you are rarely getting folds on that texture. rest looks fine.

I'd size the turn a bit bigger. Why did you decide for an overbet OTR? What bluffs can Villain have when he raises your overbet(Or should I say, is villain even capable of something like this)? The only bluffs I can find are Ad,8-Jx(Ad8x, Ad9x... AdJx). I doubt villain has worse value hands that do this.

So early in a tournament without reads I don't think I'm overbetting river here. If I thought my opponent was capable of hero calling a lot with straights and worse, then an overbet may be pretty sweet since we have a disguised hand. I think in this spot I'm maybe betting 1/2-2/3 pot intending to call most raises.

As played, ugh, I'm probably just calling. Rarely getting worse to fold to a shove, and a fold means I'm likely to be overfolding.

weird spot. I would probably just call. I am thinking about shoving here because the villain can and will call with worse. Does he have T9 and think its still good? Or something like KK? Maybe shoving is optimal.

Why did you decide to overbet the river here?

The short history I had with this guy set it up perfectly IMO. He was defending everything against me and I had the perfect young/aggro image. He thinks I am taking this same line with complete air. With the way the hand plays out, doesn't the over bet look like a bluff?

I have him calling any 2 pair in this spot against me, maybe even some 1 pair hands and of course (ideally!) he could have a straight.

your replies sound reasonable lately and what a contrast.....
"just calling" meh, its snap fckn fold after you overbet river vs random in ****ty millionmaker.
I mean hey we supposed to become millionaires when we reg it right so what the hell? ))
shoving wat?

I agree tho its not great hand to overbet river.


@OP
you`ve taken weird line man, let me guess you don`t understand very well what you`re doing right?

You opened T3s OTB and I`m like " well its kinda for the big dogs but ok lets see" and then to my satisfaction you cbet close to pot on J87r ... wow.... kudos to you -- nice play really both w/ specific hand and whole betting range.

Furthermore OTT you bet less than half pot (!?) when your hand gained equity and possesses all positive and negative qualities to keep firing large.

River overbet is ok exploitatively bc you bet turn small and he will have wider range of 1p+blockers (but you already block JxTd, Td[8,7]x), few 2ps but all these hands woulda been much more interested to call std large bet (understanding you rep flushes w/ an overbet).
Then he won`t have straights by the river vs your line and still would have bunch of flushes himself (you beat none of which but maybe 98dd and maybe 95dd).
Guess you can expo overbluff with this line but that`s another glorious story.

Generally Im fine with having river overbet range but w/ nut flushes only on specific runout.

Fold pre.

River fold >>>>>>>>>> call, shove

Don't think you can have 10 '>' worth of conviction 3 hands in when getting 3:1 with 4th nut, and no preflop 3bet from BB (discounting to some small degree, AdXx). Arguing a fold is fine, but this is close giving the pot odds and lack of villain reads

How often do people c/r 3 street river overbets in the first level with air or a worse hand into a bluff?

This is true. It's pretty rare. That said, I'm constantly surprised how often (in live events) people misjudge the value of their hand...as well as how often people lack bet sizing awareness... I just feel there are way more people than you think there are that value Q8dd the same as 98dd here and would play them the same way. If he's opened every hand, even on a 3 hand sample size, minds start playing tricks.. We just need to be right here 25% of time.

Thanks for the compliment?

If I'm folding the fourth nut flush on this runout, I'm doing it for exploitative reasons based on a generalization of the player pool or just due to a live read. In general, if I'm folding this hand getting 3-1 on a call when my opponent can possibly have worse hands they're raising for value, I need a pretty damn good reason to do so.

I don't mind having a river overbet range here, but I'd much rather have a much more polarized range with nut flushes plus a few bluffs with flush/straight blockers like AdTx or Ad9x.

Yeah I was talking about value range, we can have bluffs ofc.

Prefer overbet around 125-150% pot OTT comparing to overbet river(we hv a lot more sets in our range, and T3 blocks JT 9T). As played, ppl just tend to underbluff these spots vs an overbet. ad8x Ad7x may fold turn. AdTx possible but limited combos, but at the same time I'm not sure if QXdd raises the river, so only a8dd A9dd for value (may raise turn sometimes). Just a sick spot

Fold pre, way smaller or check flop, fold river

Congrats

Flop is a bad one to cbet bluff, so check back. I don't like 1.6xpot bet with rivered flush, as the flush is sort of obvious, and hard to get called by worse. Easy fold to c/r, as he should never have worse.

This is an interesting point. A river bluff would be closer to 75% of the pot.

I think there are worse hands that the BB will raise this river with. This is one of the softest live tournaments of the year and I could see someone taking a slow-play line with a flopped set or straight. They may have also gotten there with a smaller flush or bottom straight. He would check the river if he expects me to 3-barrel and hang myself.

Disagree strongly. Continuation betting with a gut shot straight draw and backdoor flush draw in position allows us to maintain control of the hand, likely get a free card if we don't improve OTT and gives us a shot to take down this pot on the flop.

It's really neat that we are having a conversation about something that should never be. For heaven's sake, fold pre. The adage that you can't win the tournament in level one but you can lose it in level one certainly applies here.

20 posts and nobody mentioned reverse implied odds. Your reverse implied odds should be apparent on this flop, turn, river.

You start with 150 bbs and levels are an hour long. There are no antes to steal. If you can't control yourself and avoid disastrous situations like this, you need to be late-regging. The reason to play 150 bbs deep, without antes, five handed, is to take massive amounts of chips from other players willing (or stupid enough) to make a colossal mistake. It looks like villain here is the beneficiary of that thinking.

I'm reminded of Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh in Bull Durham:

Crash Davis: Why are you shaking me off?
Ebby Calvin LaLoosh: [Gets in Crash's face] I want to give him the heat and announce my presence with authority!
Crash Davis: Announce your ****ing presence with authority? This guy is a first ball, fast ball hitter!
Ebby Calvin LaLoosh: Well he hasn't seen my heat!
Crash Davis: [pauses] Allright meat, show him your heat.
[Walks back towards the batter's box]
Crash Davis: [to the batter] Fast ball.

We all remember what happened next.

Obviously we should be folding T3s pre, strongly consider checking back at least one street and sizing our river bet considerably smaller, but we are where we are.

Sure.

Then it seems relatively simple, no?

We fold to the raise and we have 94 bbs left, which is not a crisis. But playing better on earlier streets means we are not faced with conundrums like this. The best advice to offer a player in this position is to say, "Don't put yourself in this position," and to explain why.

Calling seems bad because it means that when we lose (and we lose often enough here) we are left with a 40 bb stack and a 250+ bb stack on our immediate left and at a table that won't break for hours. So much for being able to play loose aggressive poker and see multiple streets going forward.

Shoving is obviously worse because we block a number of his better flush combos that he might consider folding, assuming for the sake of the argument that he would check/raise those anyway (doubtful IMHO that he raises with QJdd, J9dd, J8dd), so we're likely getting called only by better.

Did not expect to get so much hate on the river over bet! I have villain calling high and low straights, sets, most 2 pairs and some 1 pair hands here in this spot (bluff catchers).

It's definitely in his range to value raise straights, sets and smaller flushes in this spot.

In a Wednesday nightly, maybe.

On the third hand of a tournament that pays a million for first? You would need far more information about him that you have. He's a random at the WSOP as far as you know and you need to treat him as such.

Not a hater but you're leveling yourself here.