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Old 06-04-2012, 08:11 PM   #16
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

Noone mentioned that BTN (and MP2) are also yet to act. There are sets in their range as well.
Looks like a crying fold to me.
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Old 06-05-2012, 07:43 AM   #17
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerZombie View Post
Hand 0: 55.965% 55.97% 00.00% 19392 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 44.035% 44.03% 00.00% 15258 0.00 { 88, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, A8s, A4s, 5h3h, 3h2h }

Without the low connectors adding in wheel draws with suited aces

Hand 0: 43.869% 43.44% 00.43% 84794775 838447.50 { 44 }
Hand 1: 56.131% 55.70% 00.43% 108730986 838447.50 { 88, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, A8s, Ah5h, A4s, Ah3h, Ah2h }


Click raise button?
He just doesn't have anything worse than AhQh in his flatting range (and even then I'm not too sure he flats this with it being early). That is my assumption based on his opr. I think it's unlikely he does this with AhQh given the 3bettor has AK a lot in his range when he bets this flop with so many people (the 3 bettor also has AA as well to consider a non zero%)

I really can't tell what he does with AK here, I don't have a sample size to provide an accurate 4bet index.

Don't think a good reg flats AK too many 3bets out of position though?
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:47 AM   #18
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

In terms of hand frequencies, it is harder to be dealt a set because you have blockers, so the chances he has 88 when an 8 hits is less than the chances he had 88 initially.

We are really deep, so I don't know what a reg would do with AKs and AQs besides cold calling the 3-bet multiway.

He could play 76hh/75hh/65hh this way postflop, but not sure he calls with them preflop. These seem more likely than 53hh and 32hh mentioned in the analysis.

Think he raises combo draws, but could flat middle set on the flop.
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Old 06-05-2012, 11:40 AM   #19
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

Shove time!

Plenty of things he could have that aren't 88.

Every single AhXh raises this spot.

Early on in a Sunday 215 there's no way I'm folding here, sorry.
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Old 06-05-2012, 11:45 AM   #20
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

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Originally Posted by chip11 View Post
Shove time!

Plenty of things he could have that aren't 88.

Every single AhXh raises this spot.

Early on in a Sunday 215 there's no way I'm folding here, sorry.
Yeh, can't be sure he doesn't flat weaker Ahxhs then AhQh this deep multiway.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:25 PM   #21
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

Shove that sh*t like a life-long convict.
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Old 06-05-2012, 02:32 PM   #22
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

shove
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Old 06-12-2012, 07:24 AM   #23
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Re: $215 my set mine didnt go to plan

prob a fold if you take OR's stackoff range into account as well.
if the hand ended with our decision i'd prolly get it in and its the worst made hand i'd do it with.
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