Originally Posted by jon_midas

Lol 5* thread and I don't believe that weeways is really a doctor at all. Maybe a witch doctor at best. On crack.

Originally Posted by Potamito

i know you have an edge over the field

Originally Posted by wantCLEANmoney

Originally Posted by andressoprano

How do you know this? How do you determine if yourself or someone else has an edge in a particular table?

Originally Posted by andressoprano

How do you determine if yourself or someone else has an edge in a particular table?

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

Yeah, can't believe all the people saying fold. We don't have enough of a stack to sit and throw away profitable spots. We're 5/6 in chips. If we get a spot, where half the time we add 35% to our stack, and half the time we flip, we TAKE IT.

Originally Posted by DudeImBetter

I'm not so hot at math, but bare with me.

Guy has been described as raising 4x pre for 2 days, and being quite aggro and clueless. With this description as raising very wide and being generally bad at the game, what percentage of the time do you expect him to call hero's 3bet shove? Personally, given description, I'm thinking he calls no more than 20% of the time. Secondly, versus a villain this clueless and poor, I think there's no way we're running only 25% vs his range. Regardless, we'll assume for argument's sake that the 28% number is accurate for the first calculation.

Dead money: 72k

Pot size when called: 500k

EV when called (50% of time w/ 28% equity):

-360k + 140k = -220k
220k * 0.5 (50% he calls the shove pre) = -110k EV

EV when folds (50% of time w/ 100% equity):

72k * 0.5 (50% of time) = 36k

EV of shoving given these numbers: -74k

I think this is interesting. Even with this VERY (IMO) villain-heavy calling range and equity, we still stand to only lose 74k which, according to other people advocating for a fold in this spot, isn't a worthwhile amount of chips to justify the risk associated with shoving.

Let me emphasize how off I think the above numbers are. No way is the aggro clueless villain, as described by OP, going to be running 72% vs. AJ and calling a shove half the time. The math just doesn't support it...he'd need to be getting extremely strong cards extremely often (over 2 days, again, as described by OP).

In contrast, I'll assign him a hand range that's more realistic, but that I think is still slanted villain-heavy. Let's say he folds 3/4 times and we run 35% vs. his 3bet shove calling range.

EV calculations:

EV when called (25% of the time with 35% equity):

-325k + 175k = -150k

150k * 0.25 (V calls our 3bet shove 25% of the time) = -37,500

EV when folds (75% of the time with 100% equity):

72k * 0.75 (folds 75% of the time) = 54k

EV = 54k - 37,500 = 16,500

That means, with this middle-ground calculation of ranges and equity, we're still averaging 8% increase in stack if we played this out indefinitely. Personally, think he folds more like 90% and we maintain 35% equity when called, given his description.


Regardless of math, there are other factors involved that lead me to being a strong shove advocate.

We're described as being above the remaining players in skill level, but that we're 5/6 in chip stack. In order to take advantage of the skill desparity we need to have more chips. Unfortunately, in one rotation (...6 hands) we're going to be with M<10, and rapidly our FE decreases and ability to be patient dissipates along with it. When we get r/f, we buy more time to find hands and opportunities, and when we double our chances to secure top 3 finish and/or win drastically increase. When we shove, he calls, and we lose, we obviously go out in 6th, but this may happen quite often if we just pass on this opportunity anyway.

This nood big stack likely never has gotten this deep in a tournament and is probably feeling the approach of top 3 money. The X% of the time we shove and he folds, the stress of approaching the big money bubble will act like salt getting poured in his 50k-chip-loss wound. He'll very likely slow down at least a little, and one more hit will likely put the breaks on his 2 day binge of frequently 4x preflop raising. Even an idiot will notice when the big stack he's become accustomed to playing with starts looking more like some other stacks at the table.

BOTTOM LINE...folding is just way too unjustifiably weak IMO. Please feel free to pick apart any/all opinions presented here.