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| High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of high stakes MTT hands and techniques |
08-03-2012, 11:50 PM
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#91
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: yo no soy por aqui
Posts: 15,802
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kleath
10. They see lines; and they say, ‘Why?' But We dream of lines that never were; and We say, ‘Why not’?
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I feel unrealzeal for this one.
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08-04-2012, 12:45 AM
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#92
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formerly youcanhaveitall
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Team Online
Posts: 9,453
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
lol thread was already amazing but thats one of my favorite posts in a while.
Last edited by mement_mori; 08-04-2012 at 12:46 AM.
Reason: kleath you are percsssss
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08-04-2012, 05:22 AM
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#93
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old hand
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: augie's No. 1 Student
Posts: 1,237
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Thread delivers. A+
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08-04-2012, 08:26 AM
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#94
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,825
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Nice one, and your avatar is the perfect mascot for the club.
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08-04-2012, 04:03 PM
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#95
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Stanford, CA USA
Posts: 3,311
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Kleath pick up your toys and come eat your lunch. Your mom is screaming in the neighborhood to get home. Did you finish your homework for summer school? You think you pass for a successful comedian yet? Or just the Fox news variety of character assassination and distortion of the truth? Really pathetictic how simplistic you are.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"
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08-04-2012, 04:43 PM
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#96
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old hand
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: PHILTHadelphia, PA, USA
Posts: 1,504
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Congrats on your shortest post ever, but youre still trying too hard
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08-04-2012, 08:28 PM
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#97
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2006
Location: trees
Posts: 8,711
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
You are a dolt
It is not debatable
blue text is not percs
Last edited by kleath; 08-04-2012 at 08:29 PM.
Reason: haiku'd your asssss SLAMMMM!!!
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08-04-2012, 09:00 PM
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#98
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: yo no soy por aqui
Posts: 15,802
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
challenge him to song pop kenny
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08-05-2012, 01:59 PM
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#99
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centurion
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: in makeup
Posts: 135
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
so whats the bottom of our 3b shoving range if hes opening around 25% but for the sake of an argument, just believe me that hes only r/c'ing top 3%-4%? i get that its going to be +ev to 3b shove like atc but does it do enough to our stack and really put me in a position to get top 2 or 3 in this tourney if im 3b shoving 50% here? even wider?
i really wanna reiterate that ive prolly taken this spot 100 out of 100 times and have obv lost with it before. im not questioning it b/c i lost. i thought it was a std shove and when i was talking about this spot with a well established pro, we got into an argument (and i was saying its a shove for all of the same reasons most of you pointed out) b/c he was saying its just a fold in this particular spot on a ft with this field. his main point was that i probably missed a spot when this villain opened and i had 68o but now i take AJo b/c it 'looks good' when in reality they play the same vs his calling range. <-- something thats debatable but trust me its top 3%.
what do we do if hes opening a more standard 2.5x? am i still shoving over a 2.5x open with 2 behind me when hes never calling with worse? if ppl wanna call me an idiot for debating a spot than thats fine. in my honest opinion i just dont think its as cut and dry as i always thought it was. live final tables are harder to come by obv b/c of volume so dont we really wanna maximize every dollar when were there. were not looking for small edges in EV imo. doesnt icm become more important on live ft's? not tryin to beat a dead horse here but if this thread is getting highjacked by trolls than i might as well ask some questions pertaining to the original post. thanks.
Last edited by wantCLEANmoney; 08-05-2012 at 02:05 PM.
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08-05-2012, 10:41 PM
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#100
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Stanford, CA USA
Posts: 3,311
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Can you explain how you have established that player is only calling with 3-4%?
Its not enough to see him call with JJ-AA,AK say 4 times. He can still be calling wider but it never happened with you looking plus every spot is different, your stack is not very deep for him. What if effective stack when you saw him JJ-AA,aK was 30bb or 40bb?
By the way 3% is ridiculous and 4% is also stupid. The guy must definitely call here with anything that has >38% vs your range. And if that range then has AJo in it try also 77-AA,AK,AQ,AJs,KQs for you if not wider given how he plays.
This means he can call easily with 77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+. That is easily 7% so at least 2 times bigger than your assumption.
Seriously calling 16 to see 42 who is so bad as to not call here with AQo,99,TT,88 at least and KQs,AJs looks ok too without doing the math.
So if you now put this at 25% open more like in line with what i suggested rather than somd wild 35-40% the guy if you insist at the stupid for him 4% he calls you due to removal effects only 15% of the time.
So you have a call by someone out there blinds or him about 23% of the time. You have about 30.3% vs a 4% range or 5% that the blinds use say.
This is where you friend is dead wrong. 68o is a bs hand vs 4%. It has 7% smaller equity!!! And it has no removal effects! Horrible comparison.
Even if you took the example to 3% still AJo is better by 1% and have the removal effects intact that means he calls you at least 20% more often with 68o. That 20%is substantial boost of fold equity making any comparison of AJo with whatever garbage eg K3 or 68o poor. But its still possible those hands are a push as he plays so bad.
On your 25% 4% assumption 99+,AQs+,AKo then your EV will look;
77% pick up 6bb to go to 26bb
23% get called and avg 13bb
So you have 23bb avg for +3bb result. Clear good push.
If you try my 7% suggested range for him (still more reasonable for such player to be even 10%) then you get called 35% of the time and the result is more like +1.8bb so its still ok.
On your 25-4% super wrong calling range even 68o has a result of +2.25bb.
By all means if the guy plays that bad even 23o is a push here. But really how can a table be that stupid??? If it is then pushing garbage hands is a ridiculous waste of future opportunity taking a risk of screwing up 15-20%of the time you pull that stunt.
If a 68o is a push even 23o marginally then why on earth would the guy not call with 50% of his range if not all of it?
I think AJo is a somewhat questionable push vs a proper player even at 4bb raise because its more like 20% range then and calls over 50-60% of the time taking your EV to marginal.
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08-06-2012, 12:09 AM
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#101
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2006
Location: trees
Posts: 8,711
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
well said masque
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08-06-2012, 12:43 PM
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#102
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adept
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: One day at the time
Posts: 814
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
CIA has decided to go even further on it's interrogatory methods; war prisoners who won't release information after being exposed to electroshocks, water boarding, isolation, sleep deprivation, thirst, etc, will be exposed to the ultimate torture: They will have to read all of "masque de Z" 2+2 posts and explain what the hell is he talking about.
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08-06-2012, 01:05 PM
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#103
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 24,921
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
I would push 35% of hands, like Axo, Kxs, JTo, 86s, knowing villain is opening 25% of hands for 4xBB and probably calling tight, but he opened UTG and there are 2 players to act. If I was not as sure he was calling tight, maybe push 20-25% of hands.
I don't believe he is calling 4% of hands, but the impression that he is calling tight implies no one has been pushing over his ridiculous 4x raises.
His opening large implies he does not want to face difficult preflop or postflop decision, so if the effective stacks between us later become deeper, maybe after restealing or doubling through him, I would look to flat him or 3-bet him light.
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08-06-2012, 03:02 PM
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#104
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old hand
Join Date: May 2009
Location: center of the universe
Posts: 1,797
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
Lol 5* thread and I don't believe that weeways is really a doctor at all. Maybe a witch doctor at best. On crack.
I love how people want to just use the forums to post one-way discussions and when anybody challenges them they cry. Start a blog if you don't want responses to your nonsense.
And yes this is a simple math problem and if you have to post a wall of text you are not grasping short stack poker.
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08-06-2012, 03:24 PM
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#105
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stranger
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: philippines
Posts: 13
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Re: 20bb w/ AJo on ft of an $1100 2 day event.
argument for folding: u can wait for a better spot than this. or a better hand for that matter
for calling: u have position, you're the better player, you may very well have the best hand since according to u he opens a lot; and of course you want to avoid a bingo situation even if you're ahead since villain is very aggressive and may call u anyway should u shove
for shoving: u believe u have the best hand and of course the pressure is on him
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