Originally Posted by fslexcduck
i'm surprised anyone thinks this is close - this seems to me to be one of the easiest overpair folds i've seen posted in a while...
I'd be very surprised if we fold turn and rdrcsn doesn't jam behind, actually. Although, NSB points out a real crucial detail in that syk really doesn't fire turn without 2p+ after the overcall otf. It would seem like he is trying to protect some kind of made hand when he fires turn. But, his flop raise sizing in a 3way pot on that board texture seems small for someone trying to protect a hand. Given how deep we are and the fact that all draws are peeling, that could be the reason for the value size raise. His turn bet is pretty much committing so he really has a specific range and its definitely all the f+sd and 2p+.
The real ringer is rdrcsn still behind to act. Even if our assumptions above are correct, we have to account for what his range is here. With the stack sizes I'm not sure if he sees a brick turn ip before shipping sets. I assume he can have a number of fd combos that he would prefer to flat your pfr with ip. The range he flats hits the board pretty hard here. Given the flop action and knowledge that rdrcsn isn't an idiot overcalling wide I'm fairly comfortable folding out QQ+ here. It just looks bad in general. We don't see enough super tough spots like this later in the game that we should take a chance here.