http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1793004

Reads: The guy on the btn is a hyper aggro spew tard
not sure how much of a diff that makes, but i do feel it makes the hand slightly more interesting. Original opener is 19/15/11 over 72 hands, from sweden. no real reads, 19 or 20 left in the big 109, so small pay jump considerations i guess?

Have heard good players say call and some say fold. So pretty unsure about it tbh

wugwug

ithink that if MP is a fish he can easily have KK AA here, dont think he is shoving like a flush draw or smth.. i think its a fold..

dont consider the payjump as it really doesnt matter imo.

I dont see how we can call.. only hands we beat are TJdd (unlikely as he would likely bet flop) JQdd (same..) KQdd and AKdd.

IR could easily have KK+, flopped or turned set. Thats about it though.. I just dont really see him bluff shoving light here in this spot after SB donks turn and you call (your range here is never really strong imo, mostly A9 K9 9T TJ) which would make it nice to semiblfuf jamm here.. But most hands that check flop here that will semi-bluff jamm bet flop as well...

Any advocates for a squeeze pre? Lots of dead money in the pot, and seems if we get past original raiser we'll win 70k without a struggle. Plus, K 9 isn't without value if we get called. Also, as stated, we're not really worried about pay jumps (i.e. not as scary a play).

yeah, i dont mind sqeeuzing PF with the dead money. Depends on IR though and flatter its tendencies in big pots/vs squeezes

Although i feel like he calls alot of his draws on the turn, I think he could also have a shoving range of 45dd, a3dd, a5dd, q10dd, 56o, etc. Also, squeeze is possible ,but i think i prefer a flat, my image was super spazzy at this point so I felt i was going to get 4b/back-raised a decent amount here. Kinda feel like its a call since most hands that have some kind of value bet the flop, but hard to give him an accurate range that I beat.

ir MP a reg?

supernova, but dont recognize as a tourny reg, only had 72 hands on him at the time

yeah, i agree that most hands will valuebet the flop. but he might have some % of check-back with those type of hands. If he holds 99 or 88 for example. he's only afraid of 8 outs vs TJ and 4 vs JQ and further doesnt get a lot of action from other hands since he crushes the boards and 33 would give him value on later streets anyway.. He also might check-back 33 but there are a few (3) more outs hes afraid of, not knowing what they are.

Let's say he'll check back KK+ 50% of the time (almost same reasoning as checking back 88 or 99) and a sets on the flop like 75% of the time. And top 2 pair maybe 25% of the time (assuming he'll bet those most of the time). You are beat by 18 combo's.

The hands you'll draw against that might play like this would be KQdd AKdd TJdd QJdd 45dd A3dd A5dd QTdd. I dont think he'll spazz here with 56o to be honset. just not enough equity imo. But who knows.

Assuming this semi-bluff range. You say it yourself he'll over call most often. But lets say he's 50/50 calling/shoving.. that would make only 4 combo's in total in his range.

So we are beat by 18combo's and we are drawing with 46.3% equity vs 4 combo's.

So I think we should fold here unless we expect villain to have different tendencies that what I assigned (more-less random since I have no clue about his tendencies and the gameflow etc).

Play with those % and get an idea..

if he's opening this wide you should just jam pre

besides the 56o i dont see why most of these hand are not in a lag plyr his openings range this deep in a tournament with a decent % of weak players

edit:
hmm not sure if hes really a lag player. although we dont have many hands, his stands don't really look lag-ish...

On my previous post, if he's a tagish player some % fill change and it will increase his value range in proportion to his semi-bluff range. Question is however, what type of post flop player this guy is.

The type of player that semi bluffs his hands here on the turn will also bet the overcard+backdoor draw hands on this type of flop. So its not going in line with each-other all that much for him to be semi-bluffing a huge % of the time.

And shove pre is terrible obviously.

call, fade draw, profit

i think that if he is not a reg i am folding like almost always

I think he cbets value hands on the flop a lot more than people are suggesting, especially with the hyper aggro guy OTB who he can just get it in with. The only exception is maybe 88/99 but thats slightly more unlikely given your blocker.

SBs turn leading range is wide enough to make a jam with a bare fd good in his eyes, and the fact that you flatted makes it even better as it makes his jam look super strong + he gets a better price on his bluffs.

So yeah I'd call just because I think his value range is very small (44, 88/99 sometimes), and its such a good spot for him to semi-bluff.