Been meaning to post this hand forever..

Main Event Day 1 at the Kennel Club last fall. We are at a decent table for this tournament, in a decent seat. There are like three late 50s golfer type guys directly to our right all in a row. Said it was a good seat lol

Blinds 100/200 no ante. Villain opens button to 600. No super read on the man, other than to profile his type, and that he will often overlimp and flat his button, but seems to know not to open limp. Have not seen any 3bets from him thus far. As usual I assume my image is solid.

We are in SB w/ QQ and near the starting stack of 20k. We quickly 3bet to 2200. He 4bets to 5000 and has us covered. I immediately lament my sizing and now feel compelled to setmine with my queens lol despite bad price if that's really what we're doing. But in a vacuum I just think that folding queens here is a little too weak.

I call

Flop: JJ6

I check. He checks

Turn: JJ66

I check. He checks

River: JJ666

Bet 3500. Rest of the hand is fine on your part.

EDIT: sorry I'm super tired and didn't realize at first that hands like TT and 99 don't beat the board. This makes the river decision pretty close and you have to decide whether he's more likely to bluff with AK or bluffcatch with it. In my experience, villain rarely bluffs with AK and rarely bluffraises, so let's bet like 2500 to see if he calls for the chop. Obv a raise is super weird but I'm folding and expecting him to have JJ or AJ there a ton

Bet obv.

would gii pre. would bet ~3k ott as played.

Thought about turn betting too. If you get a call, I assume we fire again on most rivers?

And i think getting in 100 BBs with QQ vs. baby boomers is a tad too light/high variance for my tastes but YMMV I suppose

I actually missed the 50 something read initially..but my experience lately with this demographic, is that looks can be deceiving, and have seen gross overvaluing of hands in their calling range...but w/e

on this exact runout, would bet otr with the same % sizing..but most other cards, esp non-Q bways, would def check otr.

Yea I'd just snap it in for 100bb Btn vs sb
Anyway as played I'd prolly just go all in otr

Based on the description, location, and a buy-in amount - demographic assumption has to be this is a successful professional who went into early retirement, moved to Florida, drives 7-series, golfs 2-3 times a week (and bets on it), and plays 2/5, 5/10 while playing cash.

This is not your OMC from a 1/2 game or $200 MTT and he is definitely aware of Button vs. Blinds dynamic. So, while he may be on the tighter side, you should still get it in pre.

Given action 3500-4500 bet on the River sounds fine. Expect to be called by his entire range that checked behind flop and turn, which includes 88-TT and AK, but also unfortunately includes KK and AA as well. If he shoves over your river lead, you will have to make a difficult read.

I do agree with a river bet, but I think before deciding on betting we need to decide if we're calling a shove. If we aren't comfortable calling a shove I think either checking is right or just shoving ourselves.

Stacks make a medium lead a little awkward because any bet essentially commits us. So a "difficult read" isn't how I'd put it. If I'm betting I'm calling.

Also, good and accurate color commentary on villain, Legend.

P.S. Any comments on sizing pre?

Yeah I'm in the bet 3000-3500 camp. Based on my limited experience of playing at the Kennel Club pre seems interesting.

i really dont understandi flatting 5k pre there will be 10 k pot with 15k behind shall ve check call one street with a or k on the flop and fold the turn or shall we immediately fold with a and k. would rather shove and pray though if op posts this hand he definitely has kk or aa maybe some jj.

he should have a better hand than us like almost never
again id just go all in otr and expect to get called by ak somewhat frequently

I also don't hate this idea, but I think that random live players are just going to have KK+ here more often that they "should". I think it's really plausible for one to not c-bet the flop with, say, aces, and then on the turn go for a tarp/buttonclicking/"I can't get two streets of value"/"I'll let him bluff the river" type of check. I'm not saying this happens often enough to not make shove > small bet, but I'm almost positive it happens way more live than it does online and I'd still be more worried about our opponent's hand here than I'd ever be online.

I feel like in this specific case live reads could come real handy even if you're not much of a live reader, I think many will give something out since they basically either have KK+ or AK here and thus are either in tarpmode or sigh call to chop mode.

yeah bet/fold the river smaller sizing is good. I see AA and KK playing the same way this early and this deep. We also run into AK here a bit.

I will add that my read was indeed that I was extremely worried that he had aces, specifically. For whatever reason, but certainly related to above comment. Once he checked the turn I started to reassess.

P.S. Preflop sizing?

So you're cool with putting over 40% in and folding when there's quite a nonzero chance that a small bet induces a fold-out-the-chop shove?

Unlikely to see him bluff jamming the river, so yes.

lacking stronger reads, jam pre
probe turn 40%