9 handed
Blinds - 2500/5000 (500)

63 remain, 51 paid.

UTG - Hero (41bb) 55 raise 10500
UTG+2 - Villain1 (52bb) calls
BB - Villain2 (36bb) calls

Flop (38,500): KT5

V2 checks, Hero bets 14k, V1 calls, V2 calls

Turn (80,500): Q

V2 checks, Hero checks, V1 bets 40k, V2 folds, Hero calls

River (160,500): J

Hero???


Already have my thoughts written.. will post after a few replies. TIA

fwiw Villain1 is 27, 150k earnings in over 26 cashes on hendon since 2015

Check and hope it checks behind.

You have less than a psb left and any bet from V will be for half your stack or more.

You open UTG and this board hits your perceived range but also theirs when they call and then lead out on the turn when it is checked to them.

If they bet on the river they have it imo.

Thoughts.. Preflop 40bb eff I think raising 55 here is borderline approaching the money bubble, however the table has been very 3bet shy and CL has not putting any stacks under pressure without showing down strong hands, so I think raise/folding depending on 3b sizing is fine.

Flop.. Pretty gin. We flop bottom set multiway. It's checked to us and we cbet pretty small (36%). In hindsight I like a bigger bet here to extract value from drawing hands like AJ, AQ, QJ and possibly induce raises from made hands like KQ, KTss, KJ, and a slow played AK... Both players call.

Turn.. The Q brings a possible straight holding from V1 w/AJ and a gutshot from V2 w/J9.. I decided to check for these reasons and I'm not sure if this is correct, thoughts? Bet or check? And if betting, what size? I have 180k, pot is 80,500.

When V2(bb) folds I narrow V1's range to

Hands that I'm behind: AJ, TT

Hands I'm ahead: AK, KQ, KJ

River.. Based on range I've given villain, I believe merging my 55s is something to consider here - hoping to fold out better and sometimes called by worse, though I never think villain can call me without the nut straight. The river J blocks combos of AJ which I was behind on the turn. I never think V1 calls w/o Ax in his hand which makes me question what Ax hands he is betting 1/2 pot on the turn. The only two which can make sense are AJ which is now blocked with the turn J and a slow played AK preflop which I'm unsure how likely that is. Really need insight on this street.

Is turning bottom set into a bluff suicidal here 12 away from the money? Or an obvious check and hope he checks back?

Thanks for your input. I definitely agree with what you've said here. I did end up checking this OOP and hoping for showdown.

how does 55 become a bluff? wtf?

Otherwise agree w/ your own analysis mostly...I pbb fold pre and if I do open I definitely do NOT make it 2.05x....50-60% otf....yes I would xc turn

Sorry, mentioning turning 55 into a bluff is results oriented on my part (river went ch/ch and villain showed down TT).

What size is better pre being 41bb effective? 2.5-3x?

check river and fold to any kind of a bet, simple spot not worth discussing. Would c-bet bigger this texture multiway given that we are c-betting from our utg range.

ya anywhere between 2.4-2.7 I think is good depending on the table. You have a strong range from UTG and it benefits from getting more money in pre and getting into more HU pots. Going MW a lot for cheap is the last thing you want. And especially with this hand which loses so much of its value on average otf, minraising it is pretty bad. I don't think 22-66 make much money as a minraise from UTG at any stack depth <75bbs on most tables. 2.5x makes it a different ballgame.

Think turn is a clear bet, maybe 1/3ish, as played..after checking, would call, and xf otr.

Guess OP lacks description to make it interesting and/or threadworthy but it's a tough spot postflop bc our range construction on all streets prior to river is very assumptive.
So yeah let's just discuss preflop sizing.

You should be betting the turn or you should be crai. If you were c/c because you thought he might have a straight then you are playing scared. If the river were a brick and he shoves what are you going to do? If he has a straight on the turn, oh well GG. You will get called by much worse. Two pair, maybe Ak, maybe even KJ.

given the way the hand was played, I think the river is a definite check because the only better hand that you will fold out is a 9. You have showdown value.

umadbro?

I don't get the c/c on the turn.

I personally barrel and expect to get value from a ton of holdings (2 pair, OESD, combo draws, etc).

This is not a 3-bet pot and we figure to have the best hand OTT still. Straights pretty unlikely as need AJ/J9 to call EP raise and call turn multiway with gutshots.

If you check turn it should certainly be to c/r.

Yea I don't get the check on the turn. I also don't get the flop sizing. I think poor flop sizing screwed ya here. Why not make it at least half pot on the flop? I'd have made it 20-25k.

I'm not great but things I would do differently:
-Not play 5s UTG? I'm not a fan of low pairs in early position and only play them table-dependent.
-Bet big on the flop so gutshot hands aren't calling you (25k+).
-Bet the turn? I'd fire 50k at it.
-As played, raise the turn? I'm fine getting it in here. He has 2-pair or KJ/AK so much here and would play it the same way. And even if he somehow floated AJ against multiple players... you're far from drawing dead. He never has a higher set here. Ks or 10s would never play that passive both preflop and on the flop. Biggest mistake as played is definitely not raising turn.
-Obviously checking river and probably puke/folding to a shove. So many A/x hands that could have stayed ...

I think you created half of your problems with checking the turn...


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imo you have to check... if villain bets he has isolated his range down to nuts or a bluff.. He shouldn't be turning to many two pair type hands into bluffs in this spot very often. i think you have the best hand a lot of the time here and it will go check, check most of the time but like i said if he best hes only representing better.

What? So you think a standard villain isn't betting KQ/KT on the turn there? If they do, you think they are turning their hand into a bluff?

Turn is a bet/call or check/raise, if villain has aj,j9, or tt, can't really get away.. villain really shouldn't have any of those hands often though..

River is ugly but I think xf is ok, even if villain bluffs us a lot our hand should look like it has a lot of ax from our turn line, I think he takes showdown with a lot of hands we beat

He will literally just always have it if he bets on the river. What can he flat pre, bet turn and show up to river with that wants to bluff?

Fold pre

Size 1/2 pot atleast into TWO players on that type of board on flop.
V2 most likely is completing his BB with ATC, Might have a hand similar to 2nd, 3rd pair w/ backdoor fd. hard to say anyways.

But V1 who flats your raise UTG+2, must have a hand like A10-AJs, but more suitable is AQ+ or pairs.
I could imagine he flatted with AK or Big PP here to disguise as well and is a more likely scenario, given how you explained the hand its AK or 10s+ is what V1's hand range is.

Should've bombed the turn when he bet 40k, C/R to 100k to find out if your good.

Turn play is just fine..... Now you need to check - fold the river.

seems like after turn action we have a lot more Ax than our villain does.

i agree bigger pre.

i agree bigger on the flop.

would be nice to know V1's timing preflop and general preflop tendencies. by the river his line and sizings are so super consistent with TT it would be hard not to bluff imo