Payjumps:
3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 9%, 12.15%, 16%, 23%

shove? range?

PP % equals less than 100% so didnt put it in HRC but looks like a fistpump jam

Actually its marginal. However counterintuitive that sounds given the small stack and that the blinds+antes are 2.5bb or 45% of your stack anyway!

More likely you need a range 19.5%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ JTs T9s with 6 left to act because they will call you wide around the blinds and you are still not doing great vs that wide range and of course the ones before with some 7-10% hand that adds up to a lot of chance to be called by the end.

Yes your stack is small but its funny that in reality even a 22bb stack has just double your equity. Imagine that!!!


http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web...=22.2&s9=&s10=

Basically the chance someone else gets eliminated before you are blinded out is so significant that you can afford to be tight.

Think it like that. The BB alone will have no problem calling you very wide possibly even 30% even if 25% is the right. SB maybe 15-20%, the others avg 10% each. Thats because they see you as so small and the pot big enough. That then looks like the chance they all folded to your push is only 35-40%.

Notice that the chance to land a quality hand before the blinds is significant by the way (next 2 hands for the first blind case,next 10 for the second big blind case). A 10% hand will happen 20% of the time anyway before the blinds hit you the first time and 65% before they hit you a second time. And by then the chance 1-2 are eliminated is not unimportant.

Consider this;

(with significant room for error ie easily 2x error up or down , i am doing this next only to illustrate the nontrivial nature of the benefit of waiting and having patience even at 5.6bb)

Lets say each opener in EP on avg has a ~15% chance to push a hand dealt (ie 15% push range) and some 10% calls him. If they folded later positions open wider say 20-25% etc and get called appropriately adjusted for their ranges also wider than 10% etc. And so forth all the way to the button and blinds. What is the chance an all in happens each hand then and gets called?

Well its like this; Imagine each guy opens with a 15% to 50% hand and gets called by 10% to 50% on avg which opens up as you go down the table for both push and call % (so i gave only ranges, adjust for each position with charts like above link). And in each all in imagine a chance of 50% one is eliminated (rather than crippled or reduced ie the smaller stack loses).

For example the first guy say 15% has a chance to be called about 1-0.9^7~52%. The second guy if the first folded opens also 15% and called eg 1-0.89^6~50%. Third guy is other 2 folded say opens 20% and gets called about 1-0.88^5~47%. The 4th guy say 25% called 1-0.87^4 ~43%. The 5th guy 30% called 1-0.85^3~39%. The 6th guy 35% called 1-0.8^2~36%. The 7th guy probably opening over 50% getting called some 30% etc.

See what i mean? Basically it would crudely look like each one of them gets called near 50% of the time and there is a 50% risk one is eliminated then. So looks like the chance one is eliminated per hand is like; 0.5^2*(chance someone opens)= 0.5^2* something like (0.15+0.85*0.15+0.85^2*0.2+0.85*0.8*0.25+0.85^2*0. 8*0.75*0.3+0.85^2*0.8*0.75*0.7*0.35+0.85^2*0.8*0.7 5*0.7*0.65*0.5) that is very close to 1 anyway (the chance all fold and BB survives is so tiny and the above that is roughly near 1 if you do it proves the crude math case ie 90-95% someone opens). Overall therefore ~25% chance someone is eliminated each hand!!!

That is remarkable! Basically by the time you are at blinds ie ~5.4bb left the first time and 3bb the second time, either you have had a big hand to push or someone is eliminated already (way over 90% that is true, something "good" happens before you see 3bb and over 50% before you see 5bb). So you improve even by waiting a bit and selecting hands carefully, simply because the others will have a big chance to get the proper top hands to duel it out at such small stacks case anyway if you stay out.

love masque's replys

ignore masque. not marginal.

Ok prove it then that its not marginal. But dont use stupid chip EV, use instead ICM or better logic. They call you 55-60% of the time if they are good and 60-65% if they fail to understand icm and see it as chip EV lucrative spot due to hero having small stack. So lets call it for safety 55% with some avg 13% hand so you are eliminated 34.5% of the time. You go to 13.5bb 20.5% of the time and 8.1bb 45% of the time. Now you have equity 7.7% as you are. If you pick the blinds you go to 9%. If you win the all in you go to 11.3% (get that from icm calculators). Notice you more than double when you win and you cant even rally equity more than 47%. Pitiful. If you lose the all in you go to 3.8% (eliminated).

So there you have it ; 11.3*0.205+9*0.45+0.345*3.8=7.67% worse or same as folding. Hence i called it marginal. Let the blinds that are big fat stacks call you wide because they can and tend to see it as chip EV problem and it gets worse real fast because you are eliminated more often now.

Now feel free to make them even tighter to elevate that result and its still submarginal, precisely more now because they are playing sub-optimally too which means icm is underestimating your true equity in a weak table. So loose table you win by folding. Tight table, you win by avoiding a marginal choice on a table people make errors.

You can ignore me but you cannot ignore what you learn if you dont ignore me and what it forces you to think about the game even when i am wrong which i doubt i am here and this is why i tried to estimate the chance one is eliminated per hand at 20-25% for the hell of it to make the point that chip and a chair matters at this spot.

Surprisingly Nash says the shove is just +0,02% so I guess folding is OK.

Good stuff indeed, don't like the Ax with x<8 hands in that spot myself.

this and not even close

yeah sure fold +ev situations where your inherently losing chips each hand dealt after seems super ****ing smart.........................................


would be much more interesting if someone was arguing for a slightly -ev shove............

Very interesting post from Masque and indeed ICM calculator says its marginal.

However I am not sure I followed you regarding the calculation of 25% chance that someone busts every hand.
Have you assumed push/fold for everyone ? 5/8 players have above 18bb I doubt they'd always open jam
Secondly if a 20bb stack open jams there is no way he is called 10% of the time by the other big stacks for ICM reasons.
The ICM equilibrium is that if mp2 pushes the other ~20bb stacks can only call JJ+ ie 1.8%

Yes absolutely jungix that was only a very crude estimate that i believe i said can be off by 50% or something either direction.

Certainly 20bb guy wont be pushing 10% , he would be raising most of the time instead. But there are 2 other small stacks that would be playing this way and the bigger ones are still most under 20 or a bit above 20. Now i simplified with a push/call example but in general even if this is not a push but a raise and a call or a 3bet, you still have the duel taking place with pretty much these ranges and the reality of the matter is that once a flop is seen their stacks are just 2-3 times the flop size often so if there is any flop betting and they see turn, they are already at SPR 1 at turn and they may indeed get it in or one of them loses 50% of their stack making it a push/fold next hand. There are also cold deck situations that start without a lot of preflop action, only some raise and call but then at flop both have something or maybe even 3 arrive at flop etc.

I will try to study it in more detail to be even more accurate if possible but i do think it wont prove dramatically different. There will be some 75% chance a flop is seen if its not a push/call case that then may get there in later streets as each person have some 30% or more chance to have something at flop worth continuing given how decent their preflop ranges would have to be to get involved.

So for 30-40% of the players at the table the risk will be similar to what i described and for the others it will be less with each other but still significant that within 1 move or 2 someone that had 20, now has 15 or 10bb and is back to push fold mode real fast or they find a reason to go all in post flop, Those things do happen with 20bb and less very often when eg the flop pot is often at 2.5+2.5+2.5=7.5bb and they will have 15-20 back at such flop with significant chance to have a made hand preflop or by flop due to the quality of their ranges for them t get involved.

Was thinking this, pretty sure we can take some -EV spots here to avoid the even greater -EV ass ripping spot we will have to pucker up and take soon. The interesting thing is how much do we have to get packed into our trunk before it is more enjoyable than the John Holmes MF we get stuffed in our back door soon.

In fact I know it to be true as I have done some stuff on this before.

#oldskoolslanskystuff

1 we are last in chips
2 the next pay jumps are 1% more and 2% more
3 everybody will wait for us to bust
4 if we go through the blinds in the hope of getting a good hand, we'll have 3bb and will with luck double up to ~ 7.

I'd rather make a slightly -EV push now

Sent from my C2105 using 2+2 Forums

are you saying that you think it is correct to shove looser than nash in this spot?

i cant point out the threshold and depends on the other players ranges if you fold but inherently you're about to have a very -ev set of situations at this stack size, you should definitely be shoving hands that are, in a vacuum, slightly losing (static)equity a non zero % of the time

of course you should deviate from Nash in this spot

This depends completely on hero's image + recent history as well as who the other players are, esp SB (the big stack) and BB.

I'll get torched for this by the maths guys but, on a typical final table of a reasonably large field Stars tourney at this buy-in level: A2+, 22+, KQ, KJs, + some mid/high SCs like 78s+

I'm assuming btw hero doesn't have a lag image since he's asking the question.

The more regs and lags you see between you and BB, the more you have to tighten this up.

I don't disrespect the Nash/ICM numbers, or what Masque says. But both of those are based on assumptions about the behaviour of other players which I believe don't hold in this scenario. If you changed OP to say "109 sit & go" instead of "109t FT" I'd see the decision as much closer.

i cant really see how K9 KT QJ being a fold here

Along with calculations it's table dependant. I wouldn't lean too much on calculations. Some people like to call 40% of their hands when someone goes all in. Sometimes the entire table is only waiting for top 10%. Use your reads at the table to help your decision. Live poker is great, sometimes I'm in MP on a similar spot and look around before I act and can see two people ready to muck behind me. That alone moves you up to hijack from mp.
Lol at masque who plugs in random numbers in an icm calculator and thinks he's 100% right.

lol at boxcheck that thinks my numbers are random. Your myopia is random buddy. What i present here is an effort always to see what is proper less or completely unexploitable type of poker. If you have information use it. You do not have it so play as if you dont care for it. GET IT? When you do not care for it you cannot be exploited but you can still use extra info to improve on it. How hard is it to get me? A lot apparently. And that is exactly how it should remain if poker remains an interest of mine.

Keep chasing luck guys all your lives by giving other guys easy presents and bad beats.

The objective isn't to be unexploitable, it's to win as much money as possible (subject to variance trade-offs which can be ignored here).

Obv we should use whatever info we have. The argument here is primarily about what info we have, i.e. what assumptions we should make in the calculations.

By shoving exploitably wide we are offering an "easy present" to the other players but if, in practice, they don't take such presents as often as they should then it's still correct to offer them.

Which (winning more money) will happen only if in the absence of information we are not exploitable so that we survive longer to exploit them from better understood spots!

You still dont get it guys that if others play bad and we play GTO we win anyway because we collect information by observing without making a starting error and make it less easy for them to get rid of us by the wrong way they play.

Here it is a mistake for them to call wide but it is a mistake they will gladly make because we are small and they think chip EV very often in calling especially from the blinds if they are bigger stacks and not afraid. So with a sub optimal hand you make it easy for their errors to actually hurt us (almost all their wrong calling hands are better essentially) instead of benefiting us. If they are tight on the other hand they will be stealing less often or push more predictably and if we get lucky and double/triple up we can use that advantage. We do not gain value from that prospect only by risking here but by risking better later also. I mean our equity derives value from that potential future branch when we get lucky on another play. Surviving allows us to see them do many more errors also.

As always if you multitable as i have explained before i can see why even slightly negative plays may be ok. If you respect the individual event ROI though it undermines it to play so loose. The thing is that even if they are tight its hard for them to be afraid of 5.6bb because they know that we are desperate and push wide and if they cant adjust icm wise properly they will call us strictly on chip EV angle and do it with wide enough hands that still are better than A7o.

In any case its not a big mistake to push here but its still suboptimal and has to depend on them being real nitty.

If others play bad and we play GTO we win anyway, period. But that's not the point.

It's pretty obvious that besides the fact there are future hands in poker which Masque and Holdem resources disregard, Masque is also downplaying the fact that we can type "sweet, finally!!!" In the chatbox prior to shoving.