like 20 left in the 100€ cubed on fr, 13.7k ftw

hero got crippled by loosing a std flip

villain is a reg on the loose side, running 21/17

how wide do we get it in?

something like 44+ a7s ato kjs kqo i think

I agree with above, but I would add 22+. I don't really see a point in distinguishing 22 from 44 here.

seems close! i'd probably make my decision based off whether the players to my left and right are active or not. that or just fold. or pokerstove.

obv 22 and 44 are different

the range is just an example and his true opening range is obv gonna vary a LOT (depending on the player) but use any realistic range and 44 will be slightly better, since most ppl are opening pairs/axs.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,907,492,192 games 0.001 secs 2,907,492,192,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.510% 45.92% 00.59% 1335039384 17244684.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 53.490% 52.90% 00.59% 1537963440 17244684.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }


---

2,907,492,192 games 0.037 secs 78,580,870,054 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.348% 41.66% 00.69% 1211324100 19933812.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 57.652% 56.97% 00.69% 1656300468 19933812.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }


---

Easy fold (at first sight that gets a bit less easy later) and the fact is you have no fold equity. Without fold equity 44 is worthless(= no edge) facing MP2 open (clearly 15-20%or better depending on style and table tightness). Why? Well because you need to get real lucky he has A2s,A3s,A4s here all else is coin flip or 19-81 and you also have 2 left to act to worry about that will not at all be afraid of 7.2bb if they have like 88-AA,AK,AQ depending on the stacks of all involved.

So you are entering a clear sub 50% all in with 2 left to act as well and no fold equity.

Even if blinds folded (say 88% of the time they fold) you have 45% eq. in 7.2*2+2.4=16.8bb which is only +0.15bb EV. The fact the others get involved 12% of the time and you lose then even if original guy folded (much worse if he didnt and had 2 against), makes the hand neutral to negative in chip EV which is easily negative ICM wise.

Just find a better spot its negative to 0 EV basically. But in a tough field of all higher stacks its not a mistake to feel sorry about either.

Original guy cannot ever fold here because he needs 5.2 to see 16.8 or just 31% vs your range and he has it with everything.


Basically what you need here is a real 48%+ hand vs his range. If his range is 20% (reasonable with 5 left to act) then you need 55+,ATo+,A9s+,KQs only

44 drops out most of the time even if you go from 20% to 25% for him which with 5 left to act isnt exactly wise (to go over 25%) for such a stupid low size raise that has probably less than 20% fold equity for him anyway and significant push chance by one of the 5left (easily 25-30% chance for a push/reraise meaning his hand needs to not fold so often ie be worthless) .

Dont feel bad for pushing it though because your stack is smaller than all and they may wait for you to get eliminated to start making mistakes with each other so its tough. Its no big deal if you pushed, the situation is tough as it is anyway so if folding is better its not by any big size. Its 22 and 33 that are the clear folds.

I'm folding.

I fold 44 and maybe 55 but i think i get in 66+ a8+ kj+

55 > a8 and kj.

also masque why do you always write so many essays, do you enjoy writing those posts? no offence but everytime i browse hsmtt there's some massive wall of random txt

Lol yeh i feel like he posts in every thread but i dont think ive read a full response of his in full even once

I write a lot because i prove what i say, i am not making bs claims and passing it as fact. I offer details so that if you want to argue against me you have all the chance to use my own numbers. I allow maximum exposure for what i say and offer details and examples to be more convincing and accurate. And because in doing so i also study situations and gain perspective that might correct my already established intuition about a spot. For example here my intuition made 44 easy fold the numbers made it a slight negative as push but not a big error. The work i did allowed me also to give you all the other hands that are push and which i couldn't have provided without explaining how i get them.

Also dont forget the sticky of this forum;

" Welcome to High Stakes MTT!
This forum will evolve as we go. But the hard and fast rules will be that this is for high stakes and deep stacked tournament hands. As a general rule please consider high stakes to be:

Online - $100+ (Rebuys $50+)
Live - $500+

There will be exceptions and I will leave that to the poster's discretion. Enjoy!
~J

Many of the things that are allowed in LSMTTs aren't going to be allowed here in HSMTTs. Please refrain from using short answers or saying call/fold/raise. Also, avoid saying things like "I agree with XXXXX". Put down your reasons for agreeing or disagreeing and try to add something.

~B "

check out the science/math/philosophy subforum. dude goes hard, don't hate

but yea there's something to be said about how he shouldn't have high expectations for people to read his entire posts

Gambling is fine. You are seriously running out of spots, and you have a pair when the next shortest stack is twice yours.

not relevant, 55+ for me.