Shut it Eddy. No jinxing.

So Maia is only -130 against Masvidal, anyone else think that's crazy? I'm one of the people who think Maia is pretty overrated and I still think that's crazy. Maybe Masvidals TDD is way better than I realize?

Masvidal is going to light him up, said it when the fight was announced.

got any analysis that led you to that conclusion? Or just a feeling?

Jorge's chinstrap game stronger than a mother****er.

You said it when you replied to my initial post:

Masvidal is the best boxer he's ever faced, he's going to keep range and keep the jab in his face. Masvidal has no problem fighting for a decision win either, his tempered aggression plays to his advantage in this fight.

He could end up finishing him but Maia actually has a solid chin, and with Masvidal playing it smart I see 29-28 Masvidal where Maia gets him down once with 2 or 3 minutes to go in a round but Masvidal survives.

eta: Oh, 5 rounds. Hmmm, well obv that lends itself more likely to a finish. I think that helps Maia also. I still like Masvidal as a dog but I'm more conflicted overall now.

etax2: It's on 211 instead of headlining a Fight Night. Back to liking Jorge more.

Well those were my reasons for Jorge being a live underdog, not so much a flip.

As I said it's hard to judge as Jorge hasn't really fought anyone with a great ability to get it to the ground. Only people I can think of are Bendo & Rustam, both of whom beat him. Though he did stop the vast majority of their takedowns, but they were also both LWs who aren't anywhere near as good as Maia at getting people to the ground and dominating them.

I'd think Maia should be like -200 to -230ish.

All that said I'd be pretty stoked if Jorge does win. I don't really like Maia's super one dimensional approach and his backpacking. I think he'd get wrecked by the top wrestlers in the division anyways, but Jorges boxing could give those guys trouble if his TDD is good enough to stop Maia.

I think 5 rounds actually helps Jorge. If he can survive the first 3 rounds, Maia gasses pretty bad by the 3rd unless he's able to easily get takedowns and rest on your back the whole time. If you make him work though he's gonna be gassed.

He was pretty energetic in the 4th and 5th against Silva after the first 3 rounds were on the feet.

Only other 5 round fights were a decision win over LaFlare and a split decision loss to Shields. All of these data points (in regards to 5 round fights) on both sides are old and infrequent, I don't put much stock in them.

Seems like Maia's style of takedown is really the key here, a violent double leg shot is an attempt that either succeeds or fails - we both know that's not what Maia does, he wants to get his hands and body on you. Very few fighters are really masters of distance and invite getting in close the bulk of their fights so when they try to fight Maia, they're trying to fight a completely diff style. That won't be the case for Masvidal who's totally comfortable bouncing around cutting angles and throwing punches.

Doesn't mean Maia can't get him down, fading it for 3 rounds is easier than 5 is my thought process. The default scenario is Masvidal winning on the feet, Maia has to get him down to change that.

Also, I think Masvidal's heart is off the charts. That matters when someone like Condit (who was already thinking retirement) tapped over risking breaking his jaw.

I think it played an even larger role in his seeming indifference to let the fight get to that position. Masvidal will have urgency to avoid bad position and always shows a very high fight IQ. Only demerit has many times been his lack of aggression, as I've said I think that actually plays as a strength specific to the matchup.

I think much of Masvidal's record is a result of bad luck (split decisions) and in an alternate multiverse he's already considered elite. He's 2-4 in split decisions and 0-3 in the UFC, I remember him beating Benson and would have to rewatch the other two.

Ok,

Everyone had him winning over Iaquinta: 13-2

I'm in the minority on Benson: 3-11

and most everyone had Larken: 2-17

*Meant to link mmadecisions.com to each one.

He gassed horribly in the LaFlare fight. LaFlare was destroying him in the 5th round and possibly the only reason Maia survived is because he kept flopping to the ground and taking forever to get up, to the point where Big John actually took a point away from him. He was barely able to stand up.

He gassed horribly in the Rory fight as well.

His takedowns get much slower and much worse later in the rounds. Too lazy to do the work but I'm pretty confident if you did Maia's TD percent per rounds it drops significantly as the rounds go on. And if he's forced to work hard for them he gasses even sooner. He was completely gassed by the 2nd in the Rory fight.

He's 39 and the cut to WW is huge. He's a pretty giant WW. I think thats a large part of why he gasses, as well as his style taking a lot of energy if people can fight off the takedowns.

I'm actually kind of thinking it being 5 rounds might be why the odds are the way they are.

It's not 5 rounds.

It's on the same card with:

Heavyweight Stipe Miocic (c) vs. Junior dos Santos
Women's Strawweight Joanna Jędrzejczyk (c) vs. Jéssica Andrade

Oh, stop confusing me bro.

Back to thinking Maia should be -200 or more

Khabib apparently out for 5 months with some kinda stomach issue he isn't giving details on.

Stolen cliffs on his appearnce on MMA hour.

Khabib is on the mma hour today. He says something is wrong and there's an issue with his body (in his stomach). They gave him the diagnosis and what to do today. He didn't want to talk about specifics now. He sounds very depressed about it. He's going to Germany to try to get "his body fixed." He doesn't have any memory of the last of the weight cut or what happened. Sounds like he had something more than just a bad weight cut.

He still wants to continue his career in the future. Says he won't fight at 170. Never. He can make 155.

I wonder who they'll have Ferg fight. No sign of Conor coming back, Khabib out, I highly doubt Diaz takes any fight other than Conor, Tony beat Barboza 1 year ago so a rematch is kinda meh.

what a *****, has to cut down to the point where he's on the brink of death just so he can fight in a weight division that he's not meant for

Cerrone-Lawler very close to happening.

Big Cormier fan but really want to see Rumble-Jones :/

Looks official on ufc 213.

Dope fight, though I would have preferred Maia vs Lawler and maybe Wonderboy vs Masvidal.

Be interesting to see how the fight plays out. I have a feeling Lawler is going to fall hard and fast. Looks like he was certainly on PEDs before USADA, an all the damage and wars he's been in lately. I thought he looked bad physically against Woodley. Getting up there in age and has just taken insane damage.

Then you got Cerrone whos been in a ton of wars too, just had a pretty gnarly one with Matt Brown then got KTFO by Masvidal. This looks like it'll be another war where he takes a ton of damage and possibly gets KTFO again. Feel he should have dropped back down to LW where he could have been a contender pretty quickly with one or two big wins and puts him in the picture for the red panty night.

Ya, I was going to suggest him as maybe a spot for Tony.

I like the fight, but you're totally right. We could be looking at names and not the actual current guys behind the names - for that reason the fight makes sense for both guys tho.

Speaking of odds, does anyone think Rumble should be favorit. To me it sounds ridicolous, or maybe there is something we dont know? If nothing surface I'm going to bet hard on DC.

I do find it kinda odd. I think DC should be the favorite.

Some things to consider though.

DC has only fought twice since then. A brutal war with Gus, and a decision with a non top 10 MW where he dominated but didn't look great. He's also had several injuries and just turned 38.

Rumble on the other hand has KO'd 3 contenders with insane ease and looked better than ever.

I think thats what the bettors see. Because DC actually opened at -140, the line just steadily moved.

I'd have to rewatch but Rumble hurt D.C. and was pretty close to winning that fight before he gassed hard.

I'm also a little surprised Rumbles a favorite, but only a little. Dudes a killer.

DC looked terrible in the Silva fight and if you look at the embedded episode he's looking in worse shape than ever. Plus he's been commentating.

Tells a story of distraction from fighting. I think DC can still do it but I get the line.

Problem with Rumble is he's a killer until he's not... and once that wall comes there's no getting over it.

I won't disparage being lackluster against Anderson Silva on 2 days notice.