I liked the discussion of 2008 primaries and general election here, so thought I'd get that going again for the Republican primaries. Here are some topics I find interesting or noteworthy.

The Horse Race

Even though the race seems somewhat close and he has taken some losses, Romney would need a big collapse to fail to get to 1144, the number of delegates needed to win. Even if that happens and he falls just short in votes the super delegates, or whatever they're called now, would put him over the top. Unless something drastic changes, I think it's pretty clear that he's going to be the nominee.

This aspect strikes me as similar to four years ago where Obama had a big lead if you looked at the delegate math but most people said the race was extremely close and could go either way. Here it's a little further out where Romney essentially has it locked up but the narrative is that Santorum has some chance.

Gingrich

It's not clear why he's still in, but it seems to be based on ego or other reasons like increasing future speaking fees that have nothing to do with actually thinking he has a shot. It's also unlike Ron Paul, who is trying to push his ideology and build a movement. It seems pretty clear that Gingrich is hurting Santorum. He seems to hate Romney, but is helping him by staying in the race. When will he drop out?

Negative Campaign

As I noted above, a lot of things about this race are similar to the Democratic primaries four years ago. I think it's striking how similar Romney, Santorum and Gingrich are in terms of policy they advocate. It just seems like they focus on different things; Romney talks about the economy a lot and Santorum social and religious issues. Four years ago, Obama and Hillary were very similar in proposed policy and the debate was over very small differences in their health plans and withdrawal from Iraq.

A big difference is that this campaign has been mostly negative. In 2008 the Democrats had two camps - those passionately for Clinton or Obama. The Clinton people were pissed that Hillary didn't win but they liked Obama fine. Sure, they had reservations about his experience and whether he could beat McCain, but they had a positive view. It's far less obvious to me that those voting for Santorum have a similar view of Romney. In general, there is very little enthusiasm for these candidates. You can see that in voter turnout, which is down despite the Republicans being fired up to beat Obama.

Impact on the General Election

It's hard to quantify, but I think the length of the race and lack of enthusiasm will have some impact on the general election. I think Republicans will definitely fall in line behind Romney, but there are factors such as turnout and appeal to indepedents and swing voters. Romney's favorability ratings are drastically lower than any nominee at this point since 2000, as far back as polls I could find go. They've gotten worse as time has gone on.

I think social issues combine with these factors to be a potentially big problem as well. Given his reputation as a flip-flopper and demagogue, he has to stay far to the right on issues like abortion and even contraception as long as the primary drags on. I think it's pretty clear that these are losing issues for Republicans. The more he's forced to address them, the worse it will be for his general-election campaign. People in the media have pointed out that he's delaying his "pivot to the center". I don't really think it's as much changing his views, but being able to avoid focus on those that are more extreme.