Villain: big stack (3x max buy in), . he's at a board where basically everyone else is tight as hell; I've got maybe 150-300 hands on each of these guys so they seem pretty steady there.
Me: Just entered the game maybe 20 hands ago

recent history: played one hand; I had done a sort of fishy mind raise from UTG2 against this guys UTG1 open with JA. A hit flop and we both checked down until I half bet the river. He ended up calling with qk high or something, but yeah; interesting side point.

so we get to the hand; my question is, what the hell is this (seemingly) standard reg, firing the turn like this with? I mean, is a bet this size on a line like this standard for sets, or a turned set? If he's KK+ I can't see this, if he flopped a set would he wait til turn and then fire this big, or go for two streets (which I'd assume would be standard) - the only thing that made sense was 5's or bluffs: fair call?


BB: $3.40
UTG: $2.00
UTG+1: $1.98
UTG+2: $2.03
MP1: $2.00
MP2: $6.58
Hero (CO): $2.42
BTN: $1.95
SB: $2.13

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with Q Q
4 folds, MP2 raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.20, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.14

Flop: ($0.43) 8 J T (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.34, MP2 calls $0.34

Turn: ($1.11) 5 (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.04, Hero raises to $1.88 all in, MP2 calls $0.84

River: ($4.87) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

but 5's folding flop....
God so set made on flop; js,ts,8s, Tj, maybe qkh,
- this is actually good ammo for another question I've had: what of about bet sizes? is this guy in this situation betting that big and expecting to get called by worse hands I he's hit a set on the flop, or if he's got KK+ and smooth called my pre 4bet>

what is the villains PF fold to 3bet%?

don't have that information I'm afraid

I mean the only thing I could think of is he has me as a total fish, and in that cause would bet JA or better or T plus an outer that draws the board or something like that.

if he is a regular, then i would assume that his call 3bet is on te tight side.
his call of 80% pot on the flop is strong. i agree that his turn line is a bit odd, but would think that it represents a lot of sets.

I do not like the your raise on the turn. He is bluffing or he has a made hand (which beats your QQ). In both cases a raise is not the best move.
Calling the turn depends on his stats and your reads, but it looks like you are beat there.

Fwiw, I think this flop smacks a 3B calling range.

?

When he calls your 3bet his range for a large part consists of medium pocket pairs 77-JJ. A lot of these now beat you. Also, he has some strong draws that could call preflop (KhQh, AhKh, AhQh come to mind).

But with this line I'm leaning more towards sets.

is that how you narrow it down ronin: a call from my 3bet pre is usually med pocket pairs/boardwalk suited cards?

So I'm guessing you combine that fact with the fact that he called my large bet on the turn as an indicator that he's now either set strong or semi bluffing a strong draw?