Villain was 35/10 with AF = 2.5 through about 30 hands.

I think that my turn fold was weak here. If I could re-play, I could call his second barrel on the turn. It's true that another high card has fallen on the turn and may hit him, but it's also a great card for him to barrel again on.

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His preflop range is [77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo] given his stats, top 10% of hands. I'm still not sure about this, but Equilab puts 109s and J10s outside this range - is this, in practice, on point?

Since it folded to him, let's say he also opens JTs and 109s.

Your flop call is good as you are ahead of his range, having 53.97% equity (this is if he cbets his entire range which I think is reasonable given he's heads up and will feel encouraged to cbet wider).

On a queen turn, let's drop the bottom of his range from his turn barreling range (i.e. he checks the turn with 19 combinations of 77/88/99/1010, 2 of A9s that brick out.)

On the turn, his range is[ JJ+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KQo], against which you still have 30.66% equity, he actually has 36 combinations of broadway draws + overs like K10/A10/AK and 2 of 109s.

And given the pot odds, you should make the call: only 2.04/(2.04+2.04+4.09) = 24.97% equity needed to call.

If you call again, he'll often check his one-pair hands like KQ/AQ/QT/AA/KK I think as at this point he might slow down and think you might have a jack, and often take a check-call line to pot-control/bluffcatch.

If you think he will bet half-pot on river, you can call turn and call all non-A/K/10/Q rivers (all of which will give you 0% equity vs his turn barreling range since each will improve all his unpaired hands to either a straight or a pair). Those 15 cards will hit river 15/46 = 32.61% of the time, and we fold 100% of the time (unless you want to run a sick bluff.)

The other 29 cards actually give us 40% equity vs. his turn-barreling range, we can probably call any 2/3rd pot bet profitably if we think he can bluff missed draws some % of the time. If he bets pot-sized, you'd have to think a little more about how much this particular villain bluffs, what that bet-sizing means.

Hope this helps bro.

Well, there´s a helpful discussion in this COTW i think.
In general i think it´s really hard to define the raising range of a 35/10 in MP because he´ll vary his range without any reason at all. I think it´s ok to put 109s and JTs in.

The rest is very helpful imo

@WinZip and @sheos: Thank you for those remarks - definitely helpful and I appreciate it. It's hard for me to incorporate that thinking and analysis at the table in real time but, hopefully, with more repitition, it will come easier to me.

Meh, call me old school but I've become very skeptical of this kind of detailed math ev approach to poker.

Reason 1: Unless you're a savant or at least extremely gifted, you can't do these calculations in real time.

Reason 2: Sample size is often an issue. Just because this guy raised 10% over 30 hands doesn't mean he'll raise 10% over 1000 hands. And you do need at least several hundred hands to get a somewhat accurate sample.

Reason 3: You can't get that accurate an estimate of someone's range. One problem is sample size, as discussed above. Another problem is that players have their own tendencies and preferences, so one player's 10% range could look quite different from another's. Some people hate playing small pairs while others love them. Some people would rather raise 76s than KT or vice versa.

The calculations are helpful when you're learning the game for developing a general sense of how different hands stack up against different ranges and giving you some rules of thumb to follow (e.g. AT doesn't stack up well against a nit's 3-bet range but I'm happy to play it against a LAG). But getting down to detailed calculations where you're judging your play based on differences of 1% is a waste of time.

Like any activity you get better at poker through experience - encountering situations over and over again and developing instincts about those situations. There are lots and lots of people out there who make money playing poker and have no idea what an ev calculation is.

i m actually very fond of mathematical ev approach. but in this case just too many assumptions are involved to have any confidence in the analysis.

so for this hand, i m in the "this turn card sucks, i fold" camp

A lot of online players are fond of it, I just think it is of limited value. There is such a thing as too much information when it comes to decision making.

In this spot, the missing piece of information is the double barrel percentage. If you think he's tight, or don't have that information, I agree it's fine folding.

I'm just giving him a typical cbet and double barrel range. Reality is, we should know how many combos of you're still ahead of anyway. Then make the judgment re: if villain barrels AK but not A10, or neither. Yet, in my first post, the point is clear: we have 5% margin for error on the turn to call so even vs. a tight semibluffing range, it's still a call given the sizing.

And I also sympathize exactly with what OP felt, and I also think you need to scrutinize your play when you feel you made a 'weak fold'. In this case, I think La Onza sensed there was a good chance he was ahead and it's worth looking at.

We're not going to get anywhere too far if we don't work on knowing our equities in different situations. This hand is already over, but next time we'll be up against a player who we do know better. Just letting it go and not doing study of that spot is obviously not going to help anyone.

I've done this for several hands, and posted some of my own, and knowing your equity is most definitely applicable in realtime. I revisit hands after the session and compare my estimated equity at the time of play and see how close I was. I think the micros are the best place to do this and lay the groundwork for your game moving up. My 2c.

I agree with this 100% and that is the limited value I'm talking about. For example, it is very valuable to look back at a hand when you made a call, plug in a bunch of ranges for villain, and see how good or bad the call was based on different ranges. It can be very eye opening to realize that you were a 60/40 dog when you made a call thinking you were good.

But when hands involve several assumptions and small percentage differences in equity, that's where the math approach becomes pointless. Poker is a game of human beings and imperfect information so decisions can't be reduced to math.

Raise pre to control in position. Hand is pretty standard at that point.

Actually OTButton with any playable hand is a raise pre for me. Gathers more info on villian and more range camo for you.

While an AF of 2.5 is not crazy, villain is certainly barrelling wider than just set+ hands. I would probably raise the turn as there aren’t many combos in villains range that can reasonably call.

There’s a lot that beats us eg AQ, QT etc that might fold. There is no FD so Villain can’t put us on a draw. Plus his air/draw range is more likely to improve on the river than ours eg AK, AT, KT etc so we lose a check/check on the river.

Based on WinZip’s range:
• Won’t fold: QQ (3), JJ(1), AJ(8), KJs(2), QJs(1) = 15
• Might fold: KK+(12), QTs(3), AQ(12), KQ(12), TT (6) = 45
• We beat/will fold: AK(16), AT(16), A9s(2), KTs(4), 88(6), 77(6) = 50 plus 99 (1) for a draw

Approx 86% of range may fold to a turn raise.

Fire away.