I usually just replay hands by myself to work them out, but I'm in a spot here where I don't really know what's +EV. I feel I should have check called river considering half-pot bet and villain putting me on flush draws. Villain is Tight A with low VP and PFR stats. Plays fairly standard post-flop. Should I just shove when he checks to me on the turn. Am I up against over-pair, as I feel AK would not have called big raise on flop, and none of his other ranges could stay in (maybe 77 - 99 type hands, but from UT2 I doubt it). Also, I block the nut flush draw. Yet, the turn check threw me. Any comments appreciated. Cheers.
1. Fold pre, his range UTG+2 is stronger than ATo if he's tight.
2. Don't raise flop. In fact maybe fold flop (and that's why you shouldn't call pre): He's betting into 2 people and you are blocking his best draw option. He may cbet his 77-99 here though but that's about it. Anyways, raising flop will make him call with maybe KdQd (if he has that pre), which you're not a huge fave against, and that's about the only hand that you beat. Also, because of board structure, you're never gonna make him fold his overpairs (maybe JJ) - you can't be expected to hold a 4 and the only hands that beat him are TT/44, and you might very well slowplay all of those hands.
3. As played on river I think he's feeling like it's a safe spot to vbet his overpairs and the only bluff he's MAYBE got should be KdQd. I think he would x/c with any sticky hand that you have beat that for some reason he didn't fold on flop.
I'm squeezing or folding pre-flop (depending on UTG+2's stats).
As played I'm calling flop.
After he calls your raise his range is pretty very heavy with overpairs (especially since you have the Ace of diamonds). He's probably just going to call you down. Based on that logic I fold the river.
Simple answer, don't overplay ace ten. In fact just fold it pre flop unless it's suited and then you're looking to catch something big not just top pair.