I played a hand at 10NL which I was unsure about. Please give help me by evaluating my thought process and decision on the river. Thanks



I make a standard steal raise from the BU hoping to pick up the blinds. I get a call from the small blind. I have only played 13 hands against villain but it seems like he is a passive player as he limped with KK in MP. I think his range is pretty wide here. I flop a flush draw on a paired board so elect to check back the flop in case villain had Ax and check raised me, also I think he is calling all GSBW + Qx combos so I wanted to actualize my equity without bloating the pot unnecessarily. I make my flush on the turn and villain bets into me. I elect to call for deception. At this point I think he had at least Qx and some Ax. River is a blank. Villain bets almost pot and at this point I think Ax becomes very likely as such a big bet Is more often than not from value. At the time I was afraid villain would shove Ax on the river as I played the flush passively and he would probably expect me to semi-bluff the flop or raise the turn. Given that villain range likely doesn't include QQ+, and 55 is unlikely should I have raised the river and called a shove?

I would appreciate any and all feedback. Thanks

Also please let me know if I should be more concise.

If villain is unknown but open limps KK and that's all I know, I consider him to be a ridiculous fish and I assume his calling range is ATC.

If we then assume he is value betting trips or better, he has as many trips or more in his range than flushes and boats, plus we beat some of the flushes. So we're ahead of his range by a decent wack. The problem is if we then raise and he shoves, we are well behind what a passive fish shoves.

I'm not going to try to do the maths now, because I should be out drinking beer right now, but my guess is we should probably just call. I think if we have more info on the villain, we can range him better and make a more informed decision.

Lol
ap

Why is 55 unlikely? Sure AA/QQ are unlikely but he can easily have AQ A8 A5 88 as well as a ton of better flushes with all his Kxdd Qxdd and Jxdd that fish show up with. I would just flat unless it's a very stationy fish (which you can't conclude from 13 hands).

By the way, cbet flop.

just call

can we not raise/fold to ~30bb, get value from Ax and avoid paying off boats?

There are times i check back with a flush draw, this is not one of them.

I think wp.

I kinda agree with this. Only thing is raise folding a flush seems exploitable since we can get reraised both with bluffs and worse value hands. However, I feel like that's pretty unlikely. Raise-fold seems pretty decent

^ I doubt pretty much any 10nl guys are bluff 3betting that riv to fold out flushes. But yeah, there is a risk of folding the best hand when someone 3bet shoves Ax thinking "I haz trips".

Yeah I think raise folding here would be good if we had more hands on this guy to properly range what he calls off with here. Against a random who we've only just seen and we think that he might be pretty woeful (given what few hands we've seen) I'd elect to just call river. Raise folding super sucks if he suddenly goes down the "HOMG BUT I HAZ TREEEEPS" route - which could be very likely.

CBet the Flop, Bet the turn, bet the river, buy a cheeseburger.