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Should I find a fold on the river? Should I find a fold on the river?

04-06-2017 , 12:23 AM
SB: 79.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
UTG: 101 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 158 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
MP: 108 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
MP+1: 108 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero (CO): 98.5 BB
BTN: 136 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 2 players) K 3 4
SB bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) J
SB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (41 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 59.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.5 BB

SB shows Q K (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
Hero shows A K (One Pair, Kings)

This is a new table and I'd never seen this guy before so I only have 3 hands on him and know little about him. I don't think he was going to fold on either the flop or turn if he has a king, I put him on KX or AA, so I didn't see a point in reraising. When he overbets the river I don't think he has a flush or straight so I'm not worried about that. Which only really leaves two pair or AA for hands that beat mine.

I know with a random range I have about 88% and I know that if he has KX,QQ, or AA I am still at 65%. Should I be able to find a fold from this position on the river or am I just losing my money there?
Should I find a fold on the river? Quote
04-06-2017 , 01:29 AM
AA and QQ are unlikely. KQ KJ 33 44 are his most likely holdings here. River clear fold imo. You could raise flop here because there you still beat all regular Ks.

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Should I find a fold on the river? Quote
04-07-2017 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron!n
AA and QQ are unlikely. KQ KJ 33 44 are his most likely holdings here. River clear fold imo. You could raise flop here because there you still beat all regular Ks.

Verstuurd vanaf mijn SM-G920F met Tapatalk
raising the flop is bad, let the guy bluff his chips.
This is a really close spot, seen fish take that line with a lot of crap, even K6, I prefer folding the river vs an unknown fish, but if the guy is a 60 VPIP maniac, then you should never fold AK here, or any Kx
Should I find a fold on the river? Quote
04-07-2017 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapidesh123
raising the flop is bad, let the guy bluff his chips.
This is a really close spot, seen fish take that line with a lot of crap, even K6, I prefer folding the river vs an unknown fish, but if the guy is a 60 VPIP maniac, then you should never fold AK here, or any Kx

Vs an 80 BB unknown, I think there's a decent argument for raising the flop and getting it in. Having said that, I don't mind a call/decide line either and am likely folding on the river here.
Should I find a fold on the river? Quote
04-07-2017 , 03:59 PM
What I'm getting from this is that I should have used more aggression earlier in the hand to try and get the money in when I am likely ahead and they are likely to call. But, as played, I should consider his over bet as polarizing and with his actions on the earlier streets it's more nuts and less air.

Does this seem like good logic?
Should I find a fold on the river? Quote
04-08-2017 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScoopMonkey
Vs an 80 BB unknown, I think there's a decent argument for raising the flop and getting it in. Having said that, I don't mind a call/decide line either and am likely folding on the river here.
There aren't many draws, we're so far ahead and if villain is a maniac, we let him bluff his whole stack right there.

It's not like we will be sad if he makes 2-pair anyway, if we get it in OTF and he still makes his 2-pair later, then we still lose. The difference is that by calling we get value from a ton of hands he could be bluffing with, specially IP.

Now if we're OOP I think bet-raising is fine.
Should I find a fold on the river? Quote

      
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