Originally Posted by LSDave
I expect you know poker better than me, but I am really perplexed that you think you think I should call there. It's a potsize bet--I have to be right 1/3 of the time, but I was pretty sure he had Ax (and probably AK, as unlikely as that is given I can account for two Kings). I cbet the Flop just to see where I stood, and his smooth call only served to confirm my suspicions. The check on Turn made me think he was slowplaying the growing monster. And the all in at the end was just a throwaway/hailmary bet. What range do you put him on or, if it's not about his range, why do you think it's worth calling?
It is a number of things.
5x usually means that villian is either very very aggressive and bad or on monkey tilt.
So that bet sizing means I am very reluctant to fold ever.
- you have the 2nd nuts
- villian is not a good player - so he will not know that this is a bad board to bluff at - but I think this player is very likely to want to bluff as he might believe that only quads can call him.
- I think you are also likely be facing alot of from a very good player would be thin value bets or range merging bets - but in the hand of a bad player would be considered retarded bets when all worse will fold and all better will call - e.g. 77 type hands
- he could be value betting a queen
So to the math - you only need to be right one third of the time or more.
Do I believe that he 5x with all bad Ax - prolly not ( he might sure cause he could be uber maniac)
I expect the Ax he has will tend to be the remaining two AK, 4 AQ , 4 Aj 4 AT
So my guess is that he prolly has 14 Ax combos - but you can decide to add more if you like.........so lets double it and add a couple and say he has 30 combos.
We need to find 10 combos of bluffs and Qx to have enough equity for a profitable call.
QJs - 3
KQs - 1
QTs - 3?
QQ - 3 combos
Note I have excluded all QJo - remember the more relaxed you are about including more Ax the more inclined you should be to include more Qx in his 3bet calling range - i.e. if he is wider and more aggro/maniac he should continue more often with his range and we have no reason to believe he will treat Ax as exception relative to Qx. Which means the ratio of Ax and all other hands should remain stable.
So you can try and work out how many hands he 5x to begin with and either bluffs with them + may have the weird range merge but in this guys case retardo bets. and you need to find what between 6 combos of bluff/ weird retardo bets to be profitable calling.
I think it would be a very low bluff frequency required to get to the 10 combos we prolly need - which is good for us and should incline us to call.
I hope that breaks down all the reasons you should call.