Playing with QQ

Comments pls!

No reads/stats on villain?

First, raise more pre imo. I make it about 3.5bb from EP or at least 3bb.

I prolly bet turn a bit higher too and river, meh...

I don't think CO will slowplay AA/KK pre with the other caller (even though half stacked). His flop-call shows he has something though... boats, pairs, draws, trips.

Because of your low turn bet he can still have just about all of that after calling that I think. Now I think I'd put a blocker bet of about half pot on the river here, perhaps getting the call from the odd one pair hand and folding when raised (even though we would get good odds).

But as I'm typing this it doesn't feel all to great

You have to call with all the missed draws and worse combo hands in his range (spades, 99, T9, 65) plus JJ. And I think we would probably bet smaller with a monster to entice a call.

dont think villain pots river with 99,T9,JJ.

villain is polarised with boats,8x, 9J for value and missed flush draws and 56 for bluffs. and we dont know how many time he bluffs with his missed draw also but with his value range he will bet 100% of the times.

given the bet size and general microstakes population tendency of bluff frequency I think river is probably a fold

I think that the river is a fold here as played. He's showing a lot of strength on a connected board and we only beat a few hands that he might do that with (JJ, 99, T9).

Based on river pot odds, we have to be good here 33% of the time to justify a call and between bluffs and hands that we beat, calling doesn't feel great. So I'd fold.

I agree with the above to raise bigger pre and to make a bigger turn bet.

I don't see why you gave up on this river. Unless it was to get him to bet, which he did... so it's a call?

Exactly. You bet the turn and the river is a trash card. If you thought you were ahead on the turn, you're still ahead on the river. In a situation like this you don't have enough info that you're beaten to justify folding an over pair. If you got raised on the turn, that's a different story.

I think that the situation has changed between the turn and the river. On the turn, when hero decides to fire again, villain has only called his flop bet. On the river, when hero is deciding what to do, he has the knowledge that villain has called both flop and turn bets (info that he didn't when he decided to fire his turn bet).

I think checking with the intention of calling on the river isn't wise here .... if this is your line, then I would fire out and bet the river.

My line is check-fold on the river putting villain on a range of hands that mostly has us beat after his flop and turn calls.

Agreed. Of course I have more information now.
What they said makes no sense.

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So are you suggesting that villain's call on the turn is enough info to determine hero's overpair isn't good? That's a rhetorical question because there are several hands in villain's range hero beats. So the situation is this. You get to the river and have no idea where you stand. You're either way ahead or way behind. If you bet the river you fold all worse hands and get called or raised by better hands. If you check you either get a check behind (fine) or you entice villain to bet his entire range, including missed draws and other hands you beat, to try to take the pot. So you check with the intention of calling. The only time you check-fold there is if the bet is massive and/or you think his range is too heavily weighted towards hands that beat you.

@Darth: good explanation, thank you for that information. Makes sense.

I like your explanation.
He bet almost pot size on river... I would say he has me beaten most of the time.

Without a read that isn't enough info to determine the strength of his range in that spot. Some passive players with missed draws will bet small because they're afraid to risk too much. Other more aggressive players will bet bigger to look strong. Honestly I'm amazed at how often I win at showdown check-calling in these spots. Sometimes you will be beaten but you will often induce bets with hands you beat.

I'm also amazed how check/call is so ++EV

Similar spot:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...erbet-1626900/