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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

04-02-2009 , 06:11 PM
Hello hello,

I'm trying to plug some leaks, heres the first that I've come across. Any solutions?

My filter:
All PPs, VP$IP, at least called a 3bet:



Looks like set mining in 3bet pots isnt working out as well as I thought. I'm usually cautious about stack sizes when calling the 3bets, and often hope that they'll stack off in most cases. Does anyone have green numbers for this filter?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-02-2009 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbansprawler
Remember: aggressive poker is winning poker, passive poker is Guy Laliberte.
LoL!!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-02-2009 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbdbdb
Hello hello,

I'm trying to plug some leaks, heres the first that I've come across. Any solutions?

My filter:
All PPs, VP$IP, at least called a 3bet:



Looks like set mining in 3bet pots isnt working out as well as I thought. I'm usually cautious about stack sizes when calling the 3bets, and often hope that they'll stack off in most cases. Does anyone have green numbers for this filter?
There is a little less than 12% chance you hit your set on the flop, so when you are purely set mining, you should anticipate to win at least 8 times the amount you paid preflop for it to be profitable. Of course, sometimes you will hit your set and everybody will fold. So you should increase that number to about 12-15.

So if the amount invested preflop will be more than 8% of your stack (or than villain remaining stack), fold it, specially if you are OoP. There is no shame in folding after getting 3bet when the situation isn't profitable.

Sure you can pull this number down under certain conditions. For example, if you got position and you expect that you can make villain fold post-flop when you don't hit your set, you can invest a bigger amount preflop.

On the other hand, if villain is a much better player than you, you need to invest a smaller amount because he won't pay you off often when you hit.

Search for the 5-10 rule for a better explanation.


EDIT : Wow just saw you had 100% VPIP, sure it has to be pretty high but do not play them everytime, mine is 93.1

Last edited by JimmyJack; 04-02-2009 at 07:07 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-02-2009 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbdbdb
Hello hello,

I'm trying to plug some leaks, heres the first that I've come across. Any solutions?

My filter:
All PPs, VP$IP, at least called a 3bet:



Looks like set mining in 3bet pots isnt working out as well as I thought. I'm usually cautious about stack sizes when calling the 3bets, and often hope that they'll stack off in most cases. Does anyone have green numbers for this filter?
Post back here when you have 10x as many hands as you do now.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-02-2009 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbansprawler


Post back here when you have 10x as many hands as you do now.
Great, I'll check back in with you in about a year i guess...does anyone else with many many hands want to post their stats with this filter on?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-03-2009 , 02:07 AM
Question regarding 3bet pot stats:

This year, I have a 3bet % of 2.8. I run pretty loose otherwise, like 18/15. Total of 170k hands so far this year.

I've 3bet people 1330 times and it is wildly profitable.
BUT... this seems to be because I get no respect in 3bet pots and my monsters get paid a lot.

Are the following stats normal in 3bet pots where I am the PF 3bettor:
3bet success (opponent folds preflop) 50%
Flop cbet 77%
Cbet success 45%
W$WSF 62%
WtSD 54%
W$SD 53%
AF 5.5

I'm most interested in the bold stats. I would like to know if these are normal or if they are wacked out due to my loose image. They seem like they should be significantly higher. I typically cbet 1/2 to 2/3 pot in 3bet pots depending on SPR and my goals.

Obviously this is a problem when I 3bet light, but I assume works well with shania regardless. It just sucks when I whiff AK and can't get people to fold. So many people are willing to stack off TT+ in 3bet pots against me. I'm out of line once in a while in regular pots but thought my 3bet range was actually kind of nitty.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-03-2009 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbansprawler


Post back here when you have 10x as many hands as you do now.
Those are just his PP hands, so I'd say he's got about an alright sample (albeit small) to start analyzing something like PF PP play
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-03-2009 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JH1
Question regarding 3bet pot stats:

This year, I have a 3bet % of 2.8. I run pretty loose otherwise, like 18/15. Total of 170k hands so far this year.

I've 3bet people 1330 times and it is wildly profitable.
BUT... this seems to be because I get no respect in 3bet pots and my monsters get paid a lot.

Are the following stats normal in 3bet pots where I am the PF 3bettor:
3bet success (opponent folds preflop) 50%
Flop cbet 77%
Cbet success 45%
W$WSF 62%
WtSD 54%
W$SD 53%
AF 5.5

I'm most interested in the bold stats. I would like to know if these are normal or if they are wacked out due to my loose image. They seem like they should be significantly higher. I typically cbet 1/2 to 2/3 pot in 3bet pots depending on SPR and my goals.

Obviously this is a problem when I 3bet light, but I assume works well with shania regardless. It just sucks when I whiff AK and can't get people to fold. So many people are willing to stack off TT+ in 3bet pots against me. I'm out of line once in a while in regular pots but thought my 3bet range was actually kind of nitty.

Is this considered loose?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-03-2009 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbansprawler
Is this considered loose?
With 1/2 the people in this forum calling themselves TAGs running ~12/10 I'd say yes.

And now that I actually looked back to beginning of November, it's actually just under 20/16.5 for me over a more significant sample.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-03-2009 , 08:21 PM
oh and there's some steaks descrepency ldo.

18/15 100NL != 18/15 5NL
18/15 100NL = 40/29 5NL

iirc I was still running around 24/20 @ 25NL.
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04-04-2009 , 07:05 AM
mpey i'd like to make a donation. PM stars sn so i can ship.
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04-04-2009 , 12:17 PM
I'm curious what is typical for a winning player in terms of loss rate from the BB facing a CO/BU steal. I'm pretty sure I defend way too much from the BB and that the reduced number of steals against my BB is not enough compensation for the losses I run up defending. From nl100 to nl1k, my BB loss rate in this situation for my current database was -45 BBs/100 (only about 900 hands in this category out of 50K total in the database). I also had my BB stolen 50 less times than my SB over that sample.
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04-05-2009 , 07:21 PM
still waiting mpey.
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04-06-2009 , 04:26 PM
How do I post the images of my pokertracker session so they can get analysed? Can I post only the numbers? Like this?


vpip 11,25 PFR 6,38 W$WSF 34,67 WTSD 24.35 W$SD 57.08 AF 2.86 Att Steal 15.23 Fold BBsteal 92.56 foldSBsteal 93.41

NL25 Full Ring 42K hands.


What you think about these stats, thanks
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-07-2009 , 12:34 PM
vpip 11,25 PFR 6,38 W$WSF 34,67 WTSD 24.35 W$SD 57.08 AF 2.86 Att Steal 15.23 Fold BBsteal 92.56 foldSBsteal 93.41

NL25 Full Ring 42K hands.


What you think about these stats, thanks
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-07-2009 , 01:25 PM
Raise more PF

C bet more on the flop

WWSF is abysmally low...

you seem weaktight

[x] post in stats thread

[x] lock
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-07-2009 , 01:56 PM
STEAL MORE

ibl
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04-07-2009 , 01:58 PM
Bombs away more.
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04-07-2009 , 02:18 PM
Something around 45-50% ATS is probably optimal.
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04-07-2009 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden
Something around 45-50% ATS is probably optimal.
No, that's way too high as an average. 30% is about normal.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-07-2009 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sircuddles
No, that's way too high as an average. 30% is about normal.
Meh, not at 25NL where all the regs have "90% fold BB to steal".
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
04-07-2009 , 02:27 PM
I said average. Obviously with nits on the left your steal should be higher, but that isn't what average means.
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04-07-2009 , 02:37 PM
My 25 ATS is 29. And my fold to steal is not 90. If I notice your steal as higher then 30, we are gonna have some bombs away fun together.
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04-07-2009 , 02:44 PM
Nits and regs are quite a different group Sweden.
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