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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

03-20-2009 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteTilt
Hey guys, looking for a few ways to plug some leaks I'm not seeing, can you guys tell from my stats if there's anything obvious you can point out?

I'm playing 11.41/6.28/3.97 over 27,255 to a tune of a mind blowing .63BB/100 this month. W$WSF of 37.44, WTSD of 21.50, W$SD of 50.37. Thanks in advance.
My post-flop play is not that great, so i'll focus on the preflop play which I do ok at ;-)

I think a VPIP/PFR by position review would help (i.e., please post them). Too big a gap between your overall VPIP/PFR. Something like 11-12/9-10 would be prettier It might only be a couple of percentage points, but in my experience it makes a world of difference between being the aggressor and being on the defensive. I would look to make sure that your VPIP/PFR, especially the PFR on the button/CO is high enough. I would guess it is not. My overall is about a 11/9, but I run something like 22/19 from the button.

Each time you are limping/cold calling preflop make sure there is a specific reason for this, and usually "I just want to see a flop cheaply" is not good enough ;-)

Tom
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03-20-2009 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stry67
Where is this and whats it about? Would love to take a read.
Post #489 In This Thread. You should definitely look into it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaizeNBlue
This is just based upon my experience playing around the NL25 level on FTP.
Thanks for all your help. I'll thank you again if I step into you on FTP.
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03-20-2009 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaizeNBlue
The 70 seems way to high for me on the flop. 70% for a continuation bet is a good number I think (that's at least my number ) But, when you factor in checking from the button, limps (which hopefully should be low), cold calls, I think the number would then be lower.
I might be misunderstanding you, but checking from the button, limps, and cold calls don't factor into your cbet% at all. Unless I'm mistaken, cbet% is the % of times you bet the flop given the opportunity (e.g. someone donking into you doesn't count as a cbet opportunity) as the last preflop aggressor.
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03-20-2009 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1a2a3a
I might be misunderstanding you, but checking from the button, limps, and cold calls don't factor into your cbet% at all. Unless I'm mistaken, cbet% is the % of times you bet the flop given the opportunity (e.g. someone donking into you doesn't count as a cbet opportunity) as the last preflop aggressor.

I agree 100 percent. I was talking about the flop aggression percentage. My point is that if a good flop continuation bet percentage is 70%, a good flop aggression percentage would be less than 70% due to the number of times that you see a flop other than when you are the preflop aggressor. I hope that makes sense.
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03-21-2009 , 06:15 AM
Great Thread!! I'm just a marginal winner at 50NL FR and hopefully you see some leaks in my stats. After reading half of this thread I already tried to improve my blind play in the last few days - this is where I'm leaking the most I think. Any other suggestions???

Overall stats:


Overall Steal Success: 70,9%
Flop Cbet Success: 48,7%

Position:



Graph:



Graph without Blinds:

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03-21-2009 , 03:50 PM
Hi guys, I understand my VP$IP is a little high as I tend to be calling with AK and AQ OOP. I know this sucks but I'm mostly interested in the interpretation of the other statistics, particularly the ratio of aggression factor on all streets, and a couple others (WTSD and W$ASD mostly) for any general ways to improve my overall play.

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03-21-2009 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rik Mayall
Great Thread!! I'm just a marginal winner at 50NL FR and hopefully you see some leaks in my stats. After reading half of this thread I already tried to improve my blind play in the last few days - this is where I'm leaking the most I think. Any other suggestions???

Overall stats:


Overall Steal Success: 70,9%
Flop Cbet Success: 48,7%

Position:



Graph:



Graph without Blinds:

Your stats look pretty good, but you have a few areas that need improvement:

1. Blind play. You know this already, so I'm just going to do a little math to show you how important this is. I would not really say that you have a leak in the blinds--you are doing a pretty good job of winning back a decent percentage of your forced bets. But it is still holding back your win rate.

At the moment, you are losing .34 ptbb/orbit in the blinds. Since you are playing $50, this is $0.34. Tally up your win rates in each of the non-blind positions; you are winning only $0.46 per orbit for a per orbit profit of $0.12. Because of the vagaries about how you start and quit sessions, this is working out to a win rate of .81/100 hands. (BTW; this means it is a significant leak for you to not be playing around to UTG before you quit a session, and you should not be posting to play--you should wait for the BB, which it looks like you usually do, but not always).

Now, as I said, you are not leaking out of the blinds, this is a pretty good loss rate. But suppose you could trim about .07ptbb/orbit from those losses. You would then only be losing .27ptbb/orbit, and you'd still be winning $0.46/orbit, so then you'd be netting a per orbit profit of $0.19--about a 50% improvement. This would bump your winrate from .81/100 to about 1.3/100, and it would bump your win rate to almost 2.0/100 if you also disciplined yourself to play around to your blinds as you quit sessions.

Just these two small changes to your game would more than double your win rate.

As for HOW to trim your blind losses, post 489 in this thread should help a lot. 3 betting light sometimes can also help, but you should probably hold off on that for now, but be prepared to add it to your game in the near future.

By the way: I didn't pick the .07/orbit improvement out of thin air: by coincidence, your blinds loss rate is exactly what mine was in 2007 and early 2008, and I trimmed it by .07 by implementing all of the ideas I posted in post 489.

2. Win Rates in non-blind positions. Across the board, yours are too low. When I see good preflop stats (and yours are fine) but low win rates, I conclude that most of your leaks are in your post flop decisions. The bad news is that I can't pinpoint these leaks by looking at the stats we post in this thread. You will need coaching and/or a detailed review of your DB to help you pin down those problems. I can offer a few suggestions of the most common leaks that I see:

a. Misplaying big pocket pairs. Look at your win rates with AA, KK, and QQ. Your win rate with KK should be within 1ptbb/hand of your AA win rate, and your QQ win rate should be within 1 ptbb/hand of your KK win rate (I say "should," simply because this is what I normally see in the win rates of solid players--this relationship has held steady in my DB for over 500,000 hands, for example). If you have a big gap between these win rates, it indicates that you are most likely misplaying the particular starting hand. This can be a much bigger deal than people think it is; if your win rate with AA is 4.5ptbb/hand, and you get dealt AA once in every 221 hands, then AA accounts for about 2ptbb/100 of your win rate by itself! Another way to think about it--if you are losing .27 per orbit in the blinds, you are losing 6.6ptbb every 221 hands, and AA is reducing this loss to a more manageable 2.1ptbb/221 that you need to make with all your other hands to break even (rake excluded).

So if you are losing 6.6 per 221 hands in the blinds, and you make 4.5 with AA and 3.5 with KK, you are effectively using AA and KK to make up your blind losses, and you can use all your other hands to add to the modest profit you'd be showing (about .7ptbb, I think).

So take a look at your win rates with these hands and see whether you can spot a win rate that is out of line with the others. If you do, study the individual hands and look for spots where you could have lost less or won more. Maybe you will see that you stacked off 8 times with AA, and you feel pretty good about 7 of them, or something like that.

b. Cold calling. Study this closely. Look at your win rate with all hands you cold called preflop. You should be showing a profit. Then examine the different categories of hands you are cold calling with--suited connectors (other than AKs), suited one gappers (other than AQs) and small pocket pairs. Filtered for the times you volunteered to put money in the pot, all of these categories should show a profit. If you see any negative win rates, it indicates a leak.

c. Small pocket pairs in early position. I don't care whether you are limp/calling them or raising with them. If you are playing them at all, look at your results. Many, probably most, micro-grinders whose stats I have looked at are losing money playing these hands. If you are not, fine, keep doing what you are doing; if you are losing money, there's nothing wrong with folding 22-66 in UTG and UTG+1.

3. CCPF. Speaking of cold calling, I am not a fan of your by-position CCPF numbers. They are too stable. As a rule, you should be cold-calling a significantly wider range in position than in the earlier positions, but yours barely change in the cut off and on the button. It is villain dependent, of course, but look for spots to be opening up your cold calling range in the last two positions.

4. Button post flop play. It looks like you and I share a button leak. Your W$WSF of 39.5% on the button is far, far too low (mine is 42.6%). It looks to me like you are stealing with a pretty wide range in LP, but when your steal gets called, you are reverting to essentially a fit or fold strategy and not winning enough of these hands. I'm pretty bad at this, too, but I can tell you that the winning players are all around 50% W$WSF OTB. So both you and I need to be working on following through better on our steals. Obviously, I am not the best person to coach you on plugging this leak; I would strongly recommend that you sign up for the monthly sweats and watch how your sweat partner follows through on his steals.

5. Your fold to a 3 bet % is way too high. You should not change it right now, because most of your leaks are post flop play leaks, and you should not be looking to get into bloated 3 bet pots more often when the main flaw in your game is making post flop mistakes. But you should keep this leak in the back of your head for after you have improved your button win rate and improved your post flop skills. At that time, you can start by calling some 3 bets in position and looking to flop big or take the pot away from a 3 bettor who shows weakness. You can also 4 bet more often, but that is way too detailed a discussion for me to get into here. For the time being, keep folding, focus on your post flop skills, and then start calling/4 betting some 3 bets after you have noticed a significant improvement in your win rate.

Hope this helps, good luck!
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03-21-2009 , 07:51 PM
Now THAT'S what I call an analysis!! :-)) Will be a huge help for me! I'm really looking forward to study your suggestions/hints in PT3 now. Your answers give me a lot to think about and maybe I'll come back for some more questions... Thanks a lot!!!
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03-22-2009 , 01:43 AM
Hi guys... first, thanks for the great analysis you all do in this thread. I really need some advice, and I'm hoping you can point me in the right direction here to start improving my game so I can move up.

About a year ago, I deposited $50 on Stars. I messed around with cash a little bit before deciding I liked tourneys better. After deciding that I really didn't like the variance of tourneys better, I went back to cash games at the beginning of February 09. After spending about 12k hands (before and after the great tourney play experiment) messing about at 2NL, I moved up to 5NL (albeit with a shortish bankroll, just couldn't stand 2NL anymore), and had OK results while learning the game:

All 5NL results graph:



All 5NL Statistics Report:




All 5NL Position Play:




About a week ago, something just clicked into place and I began really tearing it up, with my eye toward 10NL:

5NL Statistics Report since 3/16:



5NL Position Play since 3/16:



So, now I'm rolled for 10NL with 20 buyins! Hooray, I'm movin on up... Everybody says 10NL is basically the same game as 5NL, what could possibly go wrong? Well, since moving up to 10NL, even though I feel I made my play even more solid, I've basically had my ass handed to me.

10NL Results Graph:




10NL Statistics Report:



10NL Position Play:



So, I'm here, humbly seeking advice. I now need to move back down and rebuild my bankroll back up to where I feel comfortable taking another stab, and I'd like to learn as much as possible before I try again. I've never had to redeposit and I'm not really in a position now where I can, being laid off from the job recently. Any help you stats geniuses can offer would be tremendously appreciated! Thank you very much in advance.
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03-22-2009 , 06:16 PM
Not going to go into anylization of your stats, what I can say though is that 1k hands is not really enough hands to determine that you are getting your ass handed to you at X stake.

But now that I'm already here,Seeing as I also could probably use some help evaluating my stats, i shall post some! Started playing a few months ago, for the first month or two i was a losing player overall and had a few good sessions amongst a lot of bad ones. It feels like it has somewhat turned around now, and i have a few losing sessions amongst good ones, but then again i might just have run into a sick heater and this is why I'm not losing anymore Play 10NL at stars.

Garph:


Stats by position:


Wow, i just realized i am waayyyy too positionally unaware, mistakes i feel i make during the game to often is call to light (especially on river). Any other constructive criticism is more than welcome.

Ok 1 thing that really has me bedazzled is that my Agg(agression) seems to be going down the later in position i am? i Assume this is because low agression number means you are agressive than? Or have i been playing backwords? :x

Last edited by earl; 03-22-2009 at 06:27 PM.
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03-23-2009 , 12:33 AM
Looking to get my some analysis done on my march play. Will be about 100k hands

Regular at 50NL/PL on FT.

What do I need to be posting?

I have HM.

Last edited by isukatpkr; 03-23-2009 at 12:43 AM.
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03-23-2009 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merum

10NL Results Graph:
just from a quick glance it looks like you dont get enough value with strong holdings.

try getting creative and inducing bets in these spots. extract more value. its looks like you are pushing people off too much. you only want to push them off when you dont have anything.
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03-23-2009 , 02:20 AM
but then again 1k hands doesnt mean anything
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03-23-2009 , 10:43 AM
Ok, my first time att.

As some of you may know I cashed out my roll to play live. Now I'm rebuilding from the $30 I left on stars. I used my FPPs to play some sats, sold the T$ and played some NL2 until my roll reached $120. Now I have played about 18K hands of NL5 and have the roll to move up. I used to be a halfway decent NL25 reg, but I'm really looking forward to improve my game.

General Stats




Positional Stats



Garph for the 18K hands at NL5



PS.: I know my fold to 3-bet is a little on the low side, but this is mostly due to the fact that at Stars NL5 we play 200BB deep and usually have the implied odds to setmine in 3-bet pots.
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03-24-2009 , 06:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juguerra
Ok, my first time att.
Too tight preflop, this game is is going to have u bleeding money at 25nl and above unless you table select v v well.

Losses out of the big blind may be too tight (not defending loose enough or 3betting enough).
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03-24-2009 , 02:56 PM
I would appreciate comments, especially regarding my results disparity between PL and NL 50. These results are filtered for FR as I often play PL50 shorthanded vs the shortstackers. I'm in the process of using the excellent advice in posts 489 and 14xx (recent by mpethybridge) to look for leaks as well.

Acceptable Combined Results


Encouraging PL50 Results


Poor NL50 Results


Comparison Statistics
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03-24-2009 , 11:14 PM
my ptbb/100 at NL25 and NL10 over ~20k hands (~10k each level) is only 1.3 and i feel like i can/should do better. i've been playing NL25 exclusively since moving up to it, but included my NL10 stats anyways.

i opened up my preflop play in my last ~2k hands to limping behind or open raising with suited aces and 45s+ (meaning suited connectors/one-gappers). i don't know if that was a good adjustment or a bad one. i've also been 3-betting lighter from the CO and BTN and re-stealing a little lighter.

NL10 graph:


NL25 graph (see BBV for huge dips in last ~2K hands, 200BB deep set over set and 100BB runner-runner overfull to my flopped set):






anybody have any advice for me given this information? i know it's not much.

i think i may be set mining too much. i dunno. again, i know this isn't much info to go by.

Last edited by DevWil; 03-24-2009 at 11:20 PM.
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03-25-2009 , 03:35 AM
Work on blind play. I'm no expert on stats or anything but it looks like you call/limp with a lot speculative stuff from the small blind.
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03-25-2009 , 05:43 AM
I need help with my stats nl25!
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03-25-2009 , 05:44 AM
next
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03-25-2009 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bebek
I need help with my stats nl25!
How is it possible to go to showdown so little, and yet only win 45% of Showdowns? Maybe that's something you need to work on?
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03-25-2009 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fly-fisher
I would appreciate comments, especially regarding my results disparity between PL and NL 50. These results are filtered for FR as I often play PL50 shorthanded vs the shortstackers. I'm in the process of using the excellent advice in posts 489 and 14xx (recent by mpethybridge) to look for leaks as well.

Acceptable Combined Results


Encouraging PL50 Results


Poor NL50 Results


Comparison Statistics
Looks like my NL25 garfs

I would be interested in hearing what you find out after analyzing your stats as I have identical garfs but from NL25.
I had a theory that I fold to NL shoves to much, in PL they can't shove in the same way and it's easier to call that psb instead of a shove.

PM me if you like and we can discuss and compare stats and see if we can figure it out.

Anyone have any good ideas to where we should start looking?
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03-25-2009 , 09:47 PM
These are my stats from beginning of this year...
Right now i'm not really sure if i play my a-game because i think my winrate should be higher and i'm kinda confused about what style to choose - sometimes i'm aggressive and sometimes i'm just too tight i think. probably it's impossible to make any conclusions from graph i'm pasting here but maybe you could at least point me obvious leaks i might have...
Thanks a lot!

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03-26-2009 , 09:43 AM
I have ran a search, but I guess my phrasing is wrong as I get far too many results to find what I need.

My question is are there any threads here from long time PT users where they have developed any conclusions as to what AFq numbers we should be looking for?
i.e., how do AFq numbers (their ranges) come into play in deciding what type of player your opponent is.


Thanks
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03-26-2009 , 12:33 PM
Hey guys,

This has been my first full month of playing and I just wanted a little insight into my game as I need a boatload of help. Can you guys take a look at these stats and see what I'm doing wrong? I'm pretty much a break even player (thank god for FT deposit bonus). I feel like there aren't any parts of the game I'm particularly good at, but there are alot of things I'm awful at. Some particulars that come to mind...

It looks as though I'm a little too aggressive (AF4.22) and I've been getting exploited like crazy by regs who scoff at my CBets and constantly float me.
How do I fix???

I feel I need to be a little more positionally aware, as I do play more pots as I get closer to the button but not nearly enough (this might be tough to fix as I'm a naturally nitty player). What are your ranges in what position???

I think my blinds play is atrocious.

I don't know how to get max value from hands when I hit.

Thanks in Advance...




And



Sorry I can't figure out how to post the pictures normal sized like other people
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