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Old 03-17-2009, 03:41 PM   #1401
MaizeNBlue
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Shark-

Those are some pretty stats. In particular I like how the gap between the VP$IP and the PFR% narrowed as the stakes got higher.

It seems like you are very positionally aware, taking down a very large percentage of your pots from the button. Good solid ATS %.

Your fold SB% seems a little high to me, but your BB and SB loss in BB/100 is very good IMO.

It seems like the W$WSF and WTSD% are a bit on the lowside, but considering all the other numbers and your overall winrate, if it was me I wouldn't be that concerned with it.

I need to start being such a damn nit and open up to your levels on the button, but I just can't get over my nit mindset

Anyways, good stats, great results, IMO.



Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkscopeaholic View Post
this is 95% 24 tabling lately ive been amping up the aggression and trying to win without hitting sets

http://img6.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=graphs.jpg





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Old 03-17-2009, 07:21 PM   #1402
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Hello everybody,

It's my first post, I've been lurking a lot recently. First of all, big thanks to mpethybridge and all who contributed to this thread. I managed to read these almost 100 pages in the last couple of days. I'm sure I learnt a lot doing this.

So I've decided to start plugging my leaks by posting my stats, preflop first...

I already have some ideas about my play, and things I do badly, but wanted to see some unbiased opinions. Right now I'm feeling quite alright at 20NL (RedKings Poker doesn't have 25NL), I think I had a nice run though. Just got HEM for free by playing on RKP. Now, I will have to look for a nice room with signup bonus, rakeback and easy competition (I'm not from US)

My recent play is best characterized by 20NL stats, but since I have only 10k hands on this limit, I decided to show you the rest.

BB/100 is ptbb/100. HEM has bb/100 by default, but I got used to ptbb, so I changed it.

All limits (played too fancy at 2NL i guess ):


By position:


By position (20NL only):


Showdown:


Graph:


Graph (without blinds):
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Old 03-17-2009, 09:18 PM   #1403
MaizeNBlue
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

hatifnat-

Hi there. You certainly have a good winrate but here are just a few thoughts.

The W$WSF seems pretty high. I know that it seems like maybe around 34-37 or so is the sweet spot, but it is hard for me to decipher so I'll let others input on that (although I think the first post in this thread has some info on that).

What I do feel comfortable about reviewing is the VP$IP/PFR/cold call comparisons. Coming from a guy who was a natural 7/3 nit, i've had to really work on increasing preflop aggression.

It appears that your VP$I/PFR gap narrowed nicely when you moved to NL20. It was pretty wide in your overall numbers, but I generally like the 12.5/9 numbers. You are also *much* more positionally aware. Your previous numbers don't really reflect that big of a difference between EP and the button, but your NL20 numbers generally look spot on with that IMO. My main concern though is that your cold calling numbers seem to be way high to me. I think folks around here generally like to see below 3% for that, and you are between 5-6 I think. In particular, your CC% for EP shouldn't be that high. Considering the tight range from EP, unless the reraiser is a 3/2 nit, you gotta think that your cards have to be in good shape versus his general range. Plus, you will be OOP from thereon, so I think you really need to consider the times that you are CC% here and reraise a good portion of those. If its a hand like AJ that you might have some concerns about playing OOP, I would generally just fold to the reraise rather than tossing away a cold call here. Basically, reraise or fold. I think my cold call percentage from early is about 1.5%, which generally reflects that I might cold call against a total nit or if i'm slowplaying a monster against someone I think will pay me off on the flop with TP, etc.

Just my few thoughts.

Peace,
T
Quote:
Originally Posted by hatifnat View Post
Hello everybody,

It's my first post, I've been lurking a lot recently. First of all, big thanks to mpethybridge and all who contributed to this thread. I managed to read these almost 100 pages in the last couple of days. I'm sure I learnt a lot doing this.

So I've decided to start plugging my leaks by posting my stats, preflop first...

I already have some ideas about my play, and things I do badly, but wanted to see some unbiased opinions. Right now I'm feeling quite alright at 20NL (RedKings Poker doesn't have 25NL), I think I had a nice run though. Just got HEM for free by playing on RKP. Now, I will have to look for a nice room with signup bonus, rakeback and easy competition (I'm not from US)

My recent play is best characterized by 20NL stats, but since I have only 10k hands on this limit, I decided to show you the rest.

BB/100 is ptbb/100. HEM has bb/100 by default, but I got used to ptbb, so I changed it.

All limits (played too fancy at 2NL i guess ):


By position:


By position (20NL only):


Showdown:


Graph:


Graph (without blinds):
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Old 03-17-2009, 09:49 PM   #1404
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

i cant get over my nit minset either, im a 9/5, so i aint that bad right? fwiw, i openfold AQo in EP.... anyways jus lol @ 7/3
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Old 03-17-2009, 10:18 PM   #1405
MaizeNBlue
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jedi Speed Racer View Post
i cant get over my nit minset either, im a 9/5, so i aint that bad right? fwiw, i openfold AQo in EP.... anyways jus lol @ 7/3
I got my 7/3 up to 11.5/9 though I raise AQo but I don't like it
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Old 03-18-2009, 07:46 AM   #1406
enty
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Hi,

3 weeks ago my pc crashed, I had to reinstall windows so my database is gone. It was 60k hands ish and I moved from 5nl(~1k) to 10nl(~30k) to 25nl(~40k hands) in that period. Been playing at 25nl since late december and although I have had a good start I stopped winning quite some time ago. Since 2009 started I've been consistently losing money. I think January and February were like -20 buyins total which sux as I feel I should be crushing the micros.

I feel it's my outrageously high AF that's the problem but I'm having trouble fixing it. Also I might call river bets too wide.

Anyway stats and graph since ~Feb 17. If you need any more info let me know.


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Old 03-18-2009, 10:43 AM   #1407
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

That is interesting because considering the player types at NL25 one would think a 14/12 should be beating the game for a good clip.

yea, the post flop aggression seems to be quite high, both the ratio and Aggression %.

Your SD vs. NSD winnings graph is just crazy nuts. I don't think i've ever seen a 14/12 with a positive NSD and a negative SD variance as you do.

If it was me, I think I would look at:

-- Aggression level by street: Are you pushing people off of hands that you shouldn't be? Maybe your bet sizing is a bit off? (i..e, not getting adequate value)

-- winrates by starting hand -- For me, this is a quick way to see if there are any starting hand specific leaks (i.e., if i'm losing with my TT, I know I have a problem).

Also, do you feel like you are just slowly bleeding money, or as you mentioned, maybe being involved (whether calling or betting when the opponent is likely to call) with hands you shouldn't be?

Considering this, I think it might be helpful if you posted some HHs that you think might be indicative of your problems.

What site do you play? I am somewhat intrigued with this and would really like to figure this out what the leaks are.

Basically, with the NL25 player types, SD winnings should be where its at. So, it sounds like you are either (i) forcing people off of hands where you are the fav and not getting anywhere near full value with them, and (ii) making some bad calls/bets (with a likely call) on the turn/river, or a combination of the two. The second point I think is illustrated by your low W$SD%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by enty View Post
Hi,

3 weeks ago my pc crashed, I had to reinstall windows so my database is gone. It was 60k hands ish and I moved from 5nl(~1k) to 10nl(~30k) to 25nl(~40k hands) in that period. Been playing at 25nl since late december and although I have had a good start I stopped winning quite some time ago. Since 2009 started I've been consistently losing money. I think January and February were like -20 buyins total which sux as I feel I should be crushing the micros.

I feel it's my outrageously high AF that's the problem but I'm having trouble fixing it. Also I might call river bets too wide.

Anyway stats and graph since ~Feb 17. If you need any more info let me know.



Last edited by MaizeNBlue; 03-18-2009 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 03-18-2009, 04:18 PM   #1408
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

MaizeNBlue, thanks for your analysis. I looked more into my play after reading that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaizeNBlue View Post
Your W$WSF seems pretty high. I know that it seems like maybe around 34-37 or so is the sweet spot, but it is hard for me to decipher so I'll let others input on that (although I think the first post in this thread has some info on that).
T
I noticed that my W$WSF increased dramaticaly after I started applyin the famous #489 ITT - amazing post by mpethybridge. Part of it is due to my hot run at 20NL I guess.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaizeNBlue View Post
My main concern though is that your cold calling numbers seem to be way high to me. I think folks around here generally like to see below 3% for that, and you are between 5-6 I think. In particular, your CC% for EP shouldn't be that high. Considering the tight range from EP, unless the reraiser is a 3/2 nit, you gotta think that your cards have to be in good shape versus his general range. Plus, you will be OOP from thereon, so I think you really need to consider the times that you are CC% here and reraise a good portion of those. If its a hand like AJ that you might have some concerns about playing OOP, I would generally just fold to the reraise rather than tossing away a cold call here. Basically, reraise or fold. I think my cold call percentage from early is about 1.5%, which generally reflects that I might cold call against a total nit or if i'm slowplaying a monster against someone I think will pay me off on the flop with TP, etc.
T
Yep I did have a high CC%, but when I look at 20NL it's 3.1% which is close to what people tend to have. I went through all these 60 hands and 90% of it were PPs, SC, Axs with nice implied odds, mostly in position. Then couple of AA-QQ against some very aggro (should have reraised QQ-KK though I think). I found also couple of lesser hands like A9o when cold called SB's steal. I need to look into all of them a bit more, since I'm losing money cold calling, especially OOP. Thanks for pointing it out for me.

Also what do you guys think about my 3bet and 4bet %? They're now at 2.4/0.8. Aren't they low, should be higher when getting closer to 50NL I think. Maybe you could give me an example where I could make more 3/4bets, where I actually am folding or calling. Thanks in advance. This thread is fantastic.
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Old 03-18-2009, 04:53 PM   #1409
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by hatifnat View Post
Yep I did have a high CC%, but when I look at 20NL it's 3.1% which is close to what people tend to have. I went through all these 60 hands and 90% of it were PPs, SC, Axs with nice implied odds, mostly in position. Then couple of AA-QQ against some very aggro (should have reraised QQ-KK though I think). I found also couple of lesser hands like A9o when cold called SB's steal. I need to look into all of them a bit more, since I'm losing money cold calling, especially OOP. Thanks for pointing it out for me.

Also what do you guys think about my 3bet and 4bet %? They're now at 2.4/0.8. Aren't they low, should be higher when getting closer to 50NL I think. Maybe you could give me an example where I could make more 3/4bets, where I actually am folding or calling. Thanks in advance. This thread is fantastic.
Re: Cold-calling

In terms of the implied odds, I think you need to be careful about what implied odds you are really getting. If you cold call the raise with 66, do you think you would make up for that if you hit your set? Maybe you might be able to pick up a pot or two when you don't hit it, but without being the preflop aggressor, I find it hard to pick up these pots generally without either (i) hitting my hand or (ii) being the preflop aggressor. Same with suited connectors. If it hasn't been raised to me in LP I will raise most SCs, but at least for me I found calling them for a raise (unless it is a big mult-way action), is just unprofitable.

I guess I am just saying be careful when you think about what implied odds you are really getting in raised preflop pots.


Re: the 3 bet/4bet number does look on the lowside. But, I think you always have to be cognizant of what the 3bet/4 bet range of the other players is. At fullring NL25, for most people 4 bet is exactly AA, and maybe KK. Against some others, it is obviously a wider range. But you don't want to be 4 betting hands that are a 4/1 dog against your opponent's range.

Running at 11/9, my 3bet/4bet is currently running at 3.5/1.5. To be honest, I feel like I hardly 3 bet, just 3 betting either (i) monsters, or (ii) when I have a good hand and position on a preflop reraiser with a a PFR% greater than, say, 7% (i.e., not *that* tight). It still gets me to a 3.5. I'm not going to be 3betting the 7/1 guy ;-)

I agree this thread is fantastic. If anyone sees me on FTP (NL25 lately), give a shout out to me (SN: MensaWashout).
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Old 03-18-2009, 06:12 PM   #1410
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Anyone to give me advice?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie2k View Post
Hello,

I'm a devout 2+2 reader and pokercast listener. I have been playing poker since November 2008, but only "seriously" since early this year. I made the mistake of getting my first free $50 on FTP, playing at... 10NL which resulted in quick losses. Thank God for bonuses and rakeback! Right now, I am 3/4-tabling 2NL still @FTP.

I know people will most likely LOL at the sample size but you'll see from my winnings why I want to find out what my (most likely huge) leaks are. However, even with that sample size, some stats are converged. I am not concerned about my WR at all right now.

Here are my overall stats:


Comments:
- my VPIP/PFR are not those of a regular TAg, but they not LAg either; I do feel comfortable playing those hands, even though I know I need to tighten up from EP
- at 3, I think my aggression on the low side, but when should I be more aggressive?
- WTSD & W$SD%: from what I read they seem to be OK, maybe on the low side? Would that mean I need to hold on more to my better hands? Whenever I call down, I find myself facing 2 pairs & trips/sets most often...
- cbet%: seems ok, with a good success rate; my turn cbet seems way too high... so why is my aggression low then? Or is it just not converged?
- vs 3 bet fold: is that too low? Or is it just not converged?
- my steal % seems OK from what I read here, correct?

My positional stats:


Comments:
- I am positionally aware, but maybe a bit loose from EP?
- my blind play is horrendous; the only thing I do to defend is raise ATC from SB; I am clueless on what to do post-flop after trying what the now famous post 489 suggests; I think I need to read up on blind defense
- I'm actually losing money with pocket pairs from CO&BTN; now granted, that's 77 hands, but still, shouldn't my money come from there?

My graph, all positions:


My graph, without the blinds:


Comments:
- it seems my lines go up without the blinds, which means that even if my play is not prefect, I might be on the right track?
- if I fix my blind play, would I stop losing so much money so fast?
- I noticed that whenever I try to stick around with LPa minraising my cbet, I lose; is that a trend anyone else noticed?

Thank you for your time.
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Old 03-18-2009, 08:15 PM   #1411
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

i think you hit the nail on the head when you said that the only thing you do to defend the blinds is to raise ATC from the small blind. 30/22 from the SB? That's insane, imo. No wonder you are losing money from the SB, even after taking away the blinds. You need to tighten that way up. I know, you don't like people stealing your blinds, but you need to pick your spots, which clearly 30/22 is not doing ;-)

As you mentioned, I certainly think you can tighten up in EP, but I also think you can trim back maybe just a tad to say 25% vp$ip from the button rather than 30%.

To be honest, at these levels I don't really think worrying about defending your blinds is really that important to be a solid winning player. Although I am relentless with my own steal attempts, but I readily give up my blinds. A small leak, but IMO better than spewing chips by getting in pissing contests over the blinds. There are better spots to pick up chips at these levels that getting in those types of contests.

As far as the post-flop play, I think doing you might want to join one of those "sweat' threads, as i think having someone who plays around your level can be able to give some view of your PF play through that.



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Anyone to give me advice?
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Old 03-18-2009, 08:45 PM   #1412
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by hatifnat View Post
Also what do you guys think about my 3bet and 4bet %? They're now at 2.4/0.8. Aren't they low, should be higher when getting closer to 50NL I think. Maybe you could give me an example where I could make more 3/4bets, where I actually am folding or calling. Thanks in advance. This thread is fantastic.
Don't worry about these, they are fine. 3 betting light, especially out of the blinds, is basically the last ABC play you should be adding into your play book. Focus on more important aspects of the game that come up more frequently and have a bigger impact on your win rate. For example, get your blind loss rate down--I didn't check what yours was, but most everybody's can be improved upon--to something like -0.07ptbb/hand in the sb and -0.16 in the BB without restealing light. This will have a far bigger impact on your win rate than the occasional high variance resteal.
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Old 03-18-2009, 09:38 PM   #1413
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

I am a SnG player trying convert to cash
Took my 7k hands to figure it out lol (was having tilt issues)





9 tabling
-53.00 Allin EV
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:52 AM   #1414
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

oops forgot this
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Old 03-19-2009, 09:43 AM   #1415
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Looks like you need to close the gap a bit between your VPIP and PFR. Looks a little to far apart IMO. Also looks like you should be stealing the blinds a bit more. But that is just my amature take at what I see. GL
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Old 03-19-2009, 01:20 PM   #1416
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaizeNBlue View Post
Re: Cold-calling

In terms of the implied odds, I think you need to be careful about what implied odds you are really getting. If you cold call the raise with 66, do you think you would make up for that if you hit your set? Maybe you might be able to pick up a pot or two when you don't hit it, but without being the preflop aggressor, I find it hard to pick up these pots generally without either (i) hitting my hand or (ii) being the preflop aggressor. Same with suited connectors. If it hasn't been raised to me in LP I will raise most SCs, but at least for me I found calling them for a raise (unless it is a big mult-way action), is just unprofitable.
Yes, I think I have to cut down a bit on cold calling, especially OOP. You brought other issue in your response though. Calling/Raising SCs and PPs after limpers. You're saying you will raise SCs after limpers. I am quite redundant to do it, I feel much better calling with them, same with low pairs. I just can't play them postflop if I get called and don't hit. Even worse, when I'm getting 3bet. I guess I have to work on my post flop play to be able to raise them comfortably.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Don't worry about these, they are fine. 3 betting light, especially out of the blinds, is basically the last ABC play you should be adding into your play book. Focus on more important aspects of the game that come up more frequently and have a bigger impact on your win rate. For example, get your blind loss rate down--I didn't check what yours was, but most everybody's can be improved upon--to something like -0.07ptbb/hand in the sb and -0.16 in the BB without restealing light. This will have a far bigger impact on your win rate than the occasional high variance resteal.
So true, I will focus now on trying to improve my blind win(loss)rate. In my 70k hands I'm -10ptbb/100 from SB and -11ptbb/100 from BB, but when I filter to 20/25NL, in 10K I'm -18 and -17. So SB does much harm to my winrate.

BTW. I just moved to FTP for a bonus and FR there means 9 players. Should I change my strategy according to that? Should I for instance start open raising low pairs or AJo from UTG?
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:35 PM   #1417
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by hatifnat View Post
I noticed that my W$WSF increased dramaticaly after I started applyin the famous #489 ITT - amazing post by mpethybridge
Where is this and whats it about? Would love to take a read.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:40 PM   #1418
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

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Yes, I think I have to cut down a bit on cold calling, especially OOP. You brought other issue in your response though. Calling/Raising SCs and PPs after limpers. You're saying you will raise SCs after limpers. I am quite redundant to do it, I feel much better calling with them, same with low pairs. I just can't play them postflop if I get called and don't hit. Even worse, when I'm getting 3bet. I guess I have to work on my post flop play to be able to raise them comfortably.
This is just based upon my experience playing around the NL25 level on FTP. Most of the folks open limping will turn into calling stations on unraised pots on the flop with any piece and any sort of draw (even a gutshot). That's not a situation I like to be in. I find that a continuation bet will take this down a very high percentage of the time if I am the preflop aggressor. If I don't raise, I actually have to have a hand to win (doh), and I don't feel like I generally get enough implied odds out of them with low pairs and SCs in limped pots.

As for the AJo UTG, call me a nit, but I toss it until say the middle of MP. I just don't like to be in a situation where I could easily be dominated. I would rather raise something like 55s there because at least you won't get married to your hand unless you get your set.
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Old 03-19-2009, 05:04 PM   #1419
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Can we talk a little bit about turn betting %? What's standard for different player types at different levels, what can we look at in our DBs to determine how lightly someone fires two barrels and at what point do these stats even become useful? I imagine it would take forever to converge, probably longer than 3bet.

I know it's better to be targeting spots and let the stats figure themself out, but is there anything we can use as a metric here?
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Old 03-19-2009, 05:13 PM   #1420
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Everybody talks about AF (Aggresion Factor) but what does AFq mean (Aggresion Frequence). What's optimal for flop, turn and river? (My AFq is 43/43/43 lol)
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Old 03-19-2009, 10:14 PM   #1421
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

I always thought it meant the percentage of the time that you bet/raise out of the total number of situations. You could have a high AF just from merely folding 95% of your hands, betting/raising 4% of them, and calling 1% of them. I think looking at the AFq together with the AF gives a more complete picture of how aggressive a player really is.

I'm not sure what my numbers are per street, but mine is a pretty wimpy 25.5% overall. The average that I have for all NL25 players at FTP is 29.5%. I guess I just check/fold too much




Quote:
Originally Posted by imfromsweden View Post
Everybody talks about AF (Aggresion Factor) but what does AFq mean (Aggresion Frequence). What's optimal for flop, turn and river? (My AFq is 43/43/43 lol)
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Old 03-20-2009, 03:27 AM   #1422
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

I need some BIG help with my game. I'm a slight losing 25nl full ring player on FTP. I'm a big nit and realized I needed to open my game. I currently play around 12/10 with more work even needed. I noticed that my red line is basically the same as my blue line. What am I doing wrong here?



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Old 03-20-2009, 05:58 AM   #1423
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1a2a3a View Post
Can we talk a little bit about turn betting %? What's standard for different player types at different levels, what can we look at in our DBs to determine how lightly someone fires two barrels and at what point do these stats even become useful? I imagine it would take forever to converge, probably longer than 3bet.

I know it's better to be targeting spots and let the stats figure themself out, but is there anything we can use as a metric here?
I think I remember 70 / 20 / 40 for flop / turn / river from somewhere?
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Old 03-20-2009, 01:46 PM   #1424
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

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Originally Posted by vinnie2k View Post
I think I remember 70 / 20 / 40 for flop / turn / river from somewhere?
The 70 seems way to high for me on the flop. 70% for a continuation bet is a good number I think (that's at least my number ) But, when you factor in checking from the button, limps (which hopefully should be low), cold calls, I think the number would then be lower.
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Old 03-20-2009, 02:25 PM   #1425
AbsoluteTilt
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Re: **** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

Hey guys, looking for a few ways to plug some leaks I'm not seeing, can you guys tell from my stats if there's anything obvious you can point out?

I'm playing 11.41/6.28/3.97 over 27,255 to a tune of a mind blowing .63BB/100 this month. W$WSF of 37.44, WTSD of 21.50, W$SD of 50.37. Thanks in advance.
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