Do I suck?

First post here, so please forgive me if I violate the unofficial rules...

I've only been playing poker since December, and only started paying attention to the game since the beginning of February, so I'm kinda fresh. I put $50 on Stars and have been grinding at 2NL; as of writing, my bankroll is now up to about $115, so I'm beginning to think about taking a shot at 5NL. Before I do, though, I thought I might drop in and see if there's any obvious problems in my game. I've been trying to follow the advice in the original post and get my stats largely in-line with the ideas there, but if there's any clear leaks, I'd appreciate any advice...

(Note: I'm not big on running a lot of tables at once, so I usually do 2-3 at a time. I've never done more than 4).

The difference between your VPIP and your PFR is too big (i.e. limping too much).
You're not positionally aware enough, i.e. you seem to play the same hands from almost all positions the same way except from the button. Fold more in EP and open up more in LP (CO, HJ).

I'm jealous as hell, honestly. My stats look better than yours and I'm losing money right now

what stats are you reffering to?

Hmm... Is this okey/good? winrate for:

CO: +26.23
BU: +25.27
SB: -13.12
BB: -22.46

My overall winrate is around 8 ptbb/100 at nl10. (well not after the extremely sick session i just had, now it's down to 6.8 ptbb/100... sick)

Yeah, I can see that. I've been trying to bring my VPIP down and my PFR up - I don't limp with a lot of hands (except pocket pairs 55 and down), but I tend to limp a lot more when I've taken a big losses; I know it's the wrong thing to do, but I'm having to fight with myself.

Re: position, I'll have to look at that, because I thought I was doing okay there. I know that stats aren't everything, but if I were playing better positionally (all else being the same), what would my position stats look like?

Thanks a lot for your response!

Hi Guys, this is my first post, so go easy on me.

I was hoping for some feedback on my Poker Tracker Stats. I am undoubtedly on a downswing, which my PokerEV graph confirms, but 70k hands is a lot, so I must have some leaks somewhere.

I am being staked to play and I’m worried I’m about to be dropped. My mentor says I am doing fine, and that I just need to plug away and wait for things to turn around.

My live results are much, much better and I am getting confused as to why my online results are so terrible. I am playing 6 max, four tables at once, up to $0.25/0.50, although mostly at $0.10/0.20 at the moment as I have been disciplined and begrudgingly dropped down limits.

I play up to $2-$4 in live games and crush those, yet I can’t beat the micros online. Is there anything glaring in my stats below that may suggest why?

Thanks for having a look.


Total Hands - 73,139
VPIP - 16%
PFR - 12%
W$WSF - 41.5%
WSD - 26%
Won$@SD - 53%
C-Bet - 65%
Agg Factor pre flop - 2.67
Agg Factor on flop - 5.05
Agg Factor on turn - 2.33
Agg Factor on River - 2.34
Total Aggression Factor - 3
Folded to river bet - 66%
Check Raise - 0.4%
Attempt to steal blinds - 24.5%

Button BB/hand - 0.11
Cut Off BB/hand - 0.08
HiJack BB/hand - 0.04
Seat 3 BB/hand - 0.02
Big Blind BB/hand - (0.17)
Small Blind BB/hand - (0.13)

BB/hand overall - (1.26)

Your stats are very, very good, congrats. The only thing I saw is that your WTSD is 19% and your W$SD is 51%. You are getting to SD comparatively infrequently and you are winning them comparatively infrequently. This tells me that you are winning a LOT of $ without showdown. This inference is supported by your very high aggression factor.

You MAY be able to increase your win rate by lowering your aggression factor--let your opponent bluff sometimes, stuff like that. The first place I would look for possible extra money would be hands where you bet the river OOP and the IP villain folded--if the board is drawy but the draws missed, this is a good spot to let the villain bluff at the pot.

You don't have any obvious leaks, which means bumping your win rate is going to be difficult; you are going to be hunting for a few lost BBs in spots like above, and a few lost BBs in other spots. Spend a lot of time filtering your DB by aggressive betting lines and look for HHs where you could have slowed down a bit and induced the villain to put more money in the pot.

Basically, you are playing too nitty for 6 max. You may want to post these stats in the stats thread over in the 6 max micro forum (they have one, but it is not stickied, so you will have to search for it) for a second opinion, but here's what i think:

16/12 vpip/pfr--is simply too nitty. I think that most 6 max players would agree that playing something like 22/17 or so is more like a 6 max TAg than 16/12. I think you should be opening much more often. Raise any pocket pair UTG, maybe dip as low as ATs UTG, and open up a bit more in each position as your position approaches the button. By the button you should be opening a very wide range; thus:

ATS 24%--again, this is far too low for a 6 max game. In 6 max, I think that I would be stealing something like 30% from the CO, 35-40% from the button, and 40% from the SB, and I would probably be berated by the TAgs as a nit for stealing so little. Stove these ranges, replace some of the lowest high card hands with the pocket pairs that aren't included in the Stove range for 30% and 40%, and start stealing with all of those hands.

Your win rates in all non-blind positions are low--this indicates a very small post flop edge with respect to hand reading skills; your mentor was correct to move you down to where you should have a bigger edge.

Your loss rates in the blinds are too big. I'd love to have those loss rates at FR, but the blinds are 1/3 of the hands you play at 6 max, so you can't afford to lose as much money from the blinds at 6 max as you can from FR. You need to play your blinds more aggressively. You will need to 3 bet more and probably call a little lighter than you are now.

The math behind why you are losing is simple; you are losing .30 BB/orbit in the blinds and only earning .23/orbit in the non-blind positions. So you need to earn more in non-blind positions and lose less in the blinds. Step one to earning more in the non-blind positions is to play more hands. As a 16/12, you are playing, on average, less than one non-blind hand per orbit, if my math is correct. Yet, in order to realize a profit, you have to win back the .30 you lose per orbit in the blinds by playing less than one non blind hand per orbit. Perhaps this makes it clear why you are having such a tough time?

Step 2 is, as I said, to lose less in the blinds, so you have a smaller hole to climb out of with your non-blind hands.

Finally, I am thinking that if you are playing a 16/12 style at 6 max, you may be temperamentally more suited to joining us at FR instead of continuing at 6 max. This is probably why you beat live (FR, I assume) games but not 6 max.

The only other thing I can see without your win rates is that your W$WSF at 34% is significantly on the low side. Read post 489 to see if you are playing your blinds aggressively enough. If that sounds like you, then, in non-blind hands, you are giving up on too many pots. You really should be winning at least 37% W$WSF, and 40% is doable for solid TAgs.

Your VPIP?PFR are a bit too far apart, but it seems to be working for you, so I am not that concerned. But it may be related to your low W$WSF; if you are calling IP and then giving up when you miss the flop, this will drag down your W$WSF. You have to make an occasional play IP when you smell weakness from the pre flop raiser.

Your stats are a good example of how a LAg with an edge can crush his level. Very nice.

Vinnie is right about the positional awareness. I'm more concerned with that than I am with the VPIP/PFR ratio. Drop about half the hands you are raising in EP and replace them by raising first in in LP lighter than you are now; you'll play about the same stats, but you'll be playing more hands with a positional advantage. Get your ATS up to 30% in the CO, 35% OTB and >40% in the SB if they are not there already (your ATS is 29%, so something is not there yet).

Nice stats, tho; I have a soft spot for you guys who make a LAg style work.

Well, you are getting crushed in the BB, which is the major problem. You're really not going to be able to get ahead unless you can lose at least 1/3 less than you are losing now. Post 489 ITT has some blinds guidance.

Everything else looks ok, more or less. I mean, I saw some problems with your AF, which looks too high, and i saw some 3 betting issues, and I am concerned that you are losing most of the time you are getting to showdown (this may or may not be a problem, depending on stats you did not display).

Based on the stats you displayed, all I can say for sure is that your BB play is a massive leak and your AF is a major leak.

Thanks mate.

I should have said that my stats do include a lot of full ring too - I guess it averages out at 8 max overall.

I dropped down limits off my own bat, it wasn't anything my mentor said. Maybe I should have posted my PokerEV graph - it's comical how bad I run at the moment.

But having said that, I knew there were some major leaks and I kind of half guessed what any reply might say - being too nitty, especially in 6 max. The money I lose in the blinds is just way too high.

I realised this and so started getting uber aggressive from the blinds with the result being that I was just getting 4 bet constantly and when I would look them up they would always have a massive pair. Sigh.

Live is mostly full ring, so you may have a point. The only part of your reply I took badly was the idea that my hand reading skills may be poor. This may or may not be true but when I see showdowns I am usually pretty close and I certainly get it right more often than not when playing live.

Maybe online I'm folding too much because I am over reading people's hands? I have been amazed at some of the crap I have seen when I finally make a crying call ....lol

I think I do read hands well live, but maybe I need to find a way to be better at it online?

Okay, I'll give that a shot and see how it works out before I move up. Thank you very much for taking the time to review this stuff...

Yeah, this is not what i said, though I can understand why you took it the way you did. What i said is that your hand reading skill edge is small, relative to the field. The fact that you have a positive win rate in the non-blind positions pretty much shows that you DO have an edge. But I think it is a small one at the higher stakes ($50, iirc) you were playing.

Live games play a lot differently. I recall a hand that I played at 1/2 live 300bb deep that pretty much sums up the difference between the two games. I won't give a detailed description of the hand, but suffice it to say that the physical appearance and play of the villain combined to give me enough of a read that I was comfortable slow playing and then check/shoving the river with a straight on a 3 flushed and paired board expecting and getting a call from top pair no kicker. No way I play that hand that way online; at NL $50 online, you almost never get called by anything that can't beat a straight in that spot if you check/shove the river. Live it seemed like the only thing to do to extract from that particular player. It's so different live and online are almost like different games.

where can I find post 489 ITT?

Post 489 In This Thread, reproduced below:

Thanks i've read the post on blind play. What can I do to lower my AF and how can I improve my W$SD? What other stats should I post that can help?

I'd like to see a graph of your winnings, showing showdown and non showdown losses, with and without the blinds.

to get your AF down, you simply bet a bit less and call a bit more. You need to be smart about it, which is to say that you should sometimes slow play big hands, sometimes check to induce a bluff, sometimes float a c-bet. but basically keep the fundamental idea that we bet when we have a good hand and fold when we don't, which clearly you get and are, if anything over-employing.

Really, though, I think your big leaks are in the bet lines you take and the frequency with which you take them, and you should get some coaching or a very thorough DB review or both.

Nice thread! Basically, my stats are very very wierd. I play a TAG style except I find that I will call ppl down more often when i feel their range is polarized between nuts/air, and I have blockers or something (say 77 on a 458Q2 board). I am break-even at best here. I feel however that my hand - reading is above average and that i should have a bigger edge then my graphs show. I suspect its a few small mistakes adding up. anyhow here is the graph/stats. The first part of the graph is mostly 6max, then i did some HU experimenting, and finally back to FR/6max. Maybe just not enough hands? All my stats are on full-tilt.

Here's my graph. What major adjustments do i need to become a big winner?

double post

WOW, you have a high VPIP in the bb?!

and you limp a lot @ the CO?????

So I'm pretty confident I can beat NL25 for a decent 4+ptbb/100 clip. Yet NL50 just kicks my arse. I take it I'm bleeding from the blinds and not playing tricky enough?

Huh?? Not playing tricky enough?

According to my calculations (warning I'm a stats n00b), if you folded every time in the blinds:

In the SB, you lose $.25 x 6,143 = $1,535.75
In the BB, you lose $.50 x 6,132 = $3,066

So you're doing better than you would if you didn't play them.

I would go through and view the tab "Hands" and see where your biggest losing hands are (and obv review each HH to see why you lost, if you could have gotten away, or if you could have reduced your losses) and also view by Final Hand; I know my biggest leaking hand is One Pair and I suspect there's some in there for you that are leaks as well.

*****

Mpethy I may be posting my stats here soon; I have breaking even/losing for the 4th consecutive month and for the life of me I cannot figure out why or if it's entirely do to running bad.

Your stats seem fine. The only thing I notice is your fold to 3bet % seems very high, you'll get 3bet a ton when you try steals because your basically playing fit or fold when you get 3bet. Cant see where/why your leaking so much in non-showdown pots. What your raise flop c-bet, and turn c-bet %?