**** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

[Cangurino]

Around 25%.

[Dave C]

Hi all. I've played about 13k hands of 2NL Zoom. The first 1K hands I didn't play well; not terribly, but not well. I was opening too wide a range and c-betting too many flops (close to 100%). I made some specific adjustments - tightened slightly, particularly in EP and MP, and reduced my c-betting, specifically not c-betting underpairs on wet boards and overcards when three low cards flopped. (I'm still bet, bet, betting with big overpairs.)

After those adjustments, everything went well for the next 3k hands, and I was quickly up 650bb EV-adjusted. I got value with my bigger hands and was losing less when I missed. Admittedly, I probably ran quite well; I don't mean all-in well (although I was ahead of EV when all in), just good cards in the right situations.

However, since then it seems to have been brutal and I'm literally now back to break even EV-adjusted. I don't think I've done anything different in hands 4-13k than I was doing in hands 1-4k.

I'm trying to work out if I've got some major leaks or if I've had a terrible run of cards. I'm definitely not bleeding money through giving multiple streets of value (like calling 3 streets with AQ vs AK or JJ vs KK). I can remember one or two bad calls that possibly could have been avoided, but nothing major. I think I got stacked twice, both with close 2nd best hands, but I've got people to stack off more than that, so that can't be where the problem lies.

I'm never firing two barrels without a decent amount of equity (OESD, flush draw, gutter + overcards, etc.) on the turn. I'm also not floating. So (apart from steal attempts and c-bets) if I'm betting I have (a piece of) it. This would be a leak at higher stakes, but at 2NL?

It's difficult to say, but it just feels like I haven't been hitting many hands since the 4k mark. For instance, I'm struggling to recall a flopped set where I wasn't the preflop aggressor and took it down with a 1/2 pot c-bet.

For those of you who've played 100's of thousands of hands at these stakes, does it looke like I'm just running bad and this happens from time to time, or does it look like I'm just making some basic errors and need to adjust? Is everything a bit more "random" at the very lowest stakes due to players taking weird, unreadable lines because they don't know what they're doing (as opposed to taking weird, unreadable lines because they do)?

Is there anything massively wrong with my stats? VPIP, showdown, etc. all seem ok. I seem to be losing badly with pocket pairs, which really should be very profitable hands; probably not flopping the expected number of sets or not getting value from them. I'm possibly also not making enough of my button, but I'm not sure why this is. (UTG is oddly profitable.) I don't know if the river strength reveals anything, but I thought I'd post it.

I'm genuinely confused. Thanks for any advice.

Results:


Overall Summary:


By Position:


Hole Card Results:


River Strength:

[fast11375]

82 KK -172bb/100
87 AA 1322bb/100
1101 QQ-22 9.2% flop set 4.2bb/100


Out of 21500 hands, can the above stats be enough to justify that I am in a -3.38bb/100 downswing?

[drakelol]

Due to insight from a CotW i've been isolating limpers very wide recently, with much success. Because of this, my flop CBet % went up to almost 80% which is clearly not optimal. Should i keep doing this to profit more from fish, or tighten a bit up for the sake of balance and being less exploitable by regs? 10 nl zoom

[Cangurino]

Regs can't exploit you when they are not in the pot with you. If your strategy is different depending on who's in the pot with you your total cbet stat may be skewed. If the regs observe this overall stat and "exploit" it they are making a mistake.

[Eva90]

Hi all,

I know I should have at least 10 k hands before I post graphs/stats but I'm sick of playing NL5. I have been playing NL5 for a year now, not putting in a lot of volume because I was trying to improve my game.
Went from 10/7 to 18/14 and fixed some other leaks (like cbetting every flop and tilting).

I feel like I'm beating this limit and I want to move up to NL10. Problem is that I don't have a big enough bankroll. So last 2 weeks I tried to build it, but now I'm on a (small) downswing which ruins my motivation. I'm not upset over losing a few buyins, I just don't feel like grinding NL5 anymore.

I'm thinking of adding some money to my bankroll so I'm rolled for NL10. Is this a good idea or should I keep playing NL5?

This are my stats and graph for the last 7000 hands:





Sorry for my bad english.

[Mudrc]

You can definately take a shot at NL10 ... its not much harder and you can always go back to NL5 ...

[Dave C]

Hi all, would greatly appreciate some feedback on my stats (which are on p94). Thanks in advance.

[lmagalhaes]

Hi guys, I play poker in my leisure time (I have a full time job), started with sits in 2009 and started cash games since December 2011. After 200k hands I think it's time to post something, I think samples of less than 100k hands are meaningless (this is just my opinion).

So I leave here the overall picture with some stats and a graphic. I started at NL2 then moved up to NL5. After cashing out more than 40% of my bankroll I decided to move back to NL2. I want to end the year at least at NL10.

Thanks in advance for any opinion.





Btw, how can I upload images?? I uploaded to google docs but they don't appear here.

These are the links:
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7h...TRoUDFsTmczb28
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7h...Dl5M2E3TjllRlU

[Cangurino]

The problem is that google docs requires a login to view the pictures. Try uploading them to an image hosting site like imageshack or photobucket. Then see how to include them in your post by quoting the message at the top of the page for an example.

[lmagalhaes]

Ok, here are the images of the my stats (post 4704).

[vomit]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Spoiler:

See anything wrong with the BB? Variance?

[Cangurino]

Vomit: What do you think is wrong? It's normal to lose money in the BB. If anything your loss rate is rather small.

[Cangurino]

Originally Posted by lmagalhaes

I think samples of less than 100k hands are meaningless (this is just my opinion).

The size of a meaningful sample depends on the statistic you want to observe. Some converge quickly (like VPIP-PFR), others more slowly, like win rate. At 10k hands you can spot many beginners' mistakes, hence the recommendation.

[vomit]

Originally Posted by Cangurino

Vomit: What do you think is wrong? It's normal to lose money in the BB. If anything your loss rate is rather small.

I seem to be bleeding money from the BB. Probably just running bad from the BB and good from the SB?


Anything else that stands out in my stats?