**** Official Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread ****

[Cangurino]

If your game has been going south recently then you should try and compare the recent stats with those before.

Of course, swings during a 30k hand samples are to be expected.

[MrO]

You can expect i did that, but I dont play poker for long, so I do not know what ALL those stats have to tell me

[woolly]

Originally Posted by Donkthatflop

Need some help...here are my graphs on almost 10k hands at NL2 zoom and normal tables...I am down 1 dollar and something...what am i doing wrong? my EV line is 12 dollars above...

You're W$WSF is really low @ 35.5%. I play 17/14 at 25 and 16 and my W$WSF is 44%. My suggestion would be to cbet more, especially IP. I would double barrel OOP more instead of cbetting once and giving up OTT (especially against regulars), which you may well be doing -- or giving up OTF too easily all together.

[woolly]

Originally Posted by MrO

Hello,

Seems like my game isnt going the right direction, so I am looking for some help from regulars or any advanced players.

Although I seem to be in a pretty bad swing, It is not an excuse and I know my game has holes.
I clearly understand, that I need to increase VPIP ~ 15-20% ( in later streets), PFR 75% at least, 3bet 75-100% ( because I never bluff when 3betting, should be 50/50 as I think) Although other stats confuse me a bit, and I am pretty worried about massive leak from sb/bb. Anyways, leavin stats fo your judgement, looking forward for any kind of advice.

VPIP = PFR (should) from EP, yours doesn't. This means you're limping, don't. You can loosen up more from the HJ and CO, at 10nl regulars aren't paying enough attention to exploit players who treat HJ = CO = BTN. You should also be stealing the BB more HU, my ATS in the SB is 42 (20/14 overall) If someone with your stats was seated to my right I would (literally) be stealing off you ATC. 3bet as a bluff from the BTN more against players who are too loose in the CO and HJ. If they call too many 3bets, print money off them until they stop and keep 3betting them until they stop stealing your steal attempts/adjust to you.

You're AF% is extremely low too. To compare, my AF is the same as yours but my AF% is 46%. Start taking down more pots IP when it gets checked to you. Most regulars just bet when the PFR checks to them, and they almost always give it up.

Just my 2c.

[debacle]

I realize this is an lol sample size but I just want to know if I can continue to play with these stats and expect to profit. I am learning to play cash games right now (after being a turbo sng grinder) I just deposited on Carbon Poker and just want to know if these are acceptable stats to continue to play at.

Thanks

[Cangurino]

Originally Posted by debacle

I realize this is an lol sample size but I just want to know if I can continue to play with these stats and expect to profit. I am learning to play cash games right now (after being a turbo sng grinder) I just deposited on Carbon Poker and just want to know if these are acceptable stats to continue to play at.

Thanks

It will be easier to profit if you tighten up a lot and tone down the aggression.

[Free_Man]

I was gonna log about 10,000 hands and post my results here. I keep deleting them. Pretty stupid, I know. I'm only deleting because of suck outs, not because of leaks. I want to identify my leaks, not show me losing a bunch of pots in a row that I should have won.

I just played QQ vs. AT against an obvious maniac all in pre. He hit trip tens. Deleted hand history. The hand before that, it was AA vs. KQ all in pre. KQ rivered a straight. And before that, it was top set, KKK, all in on the turn against 32, diamond flush draw. The river comes a flush. Delete history.

If it was just 3 hands then I would call it bad luck or variance. But I've literally deleted thousands of hands due to ridiculous horrible luck in guaranteed +EV situations, because I didn't want them to skew the results. Now I wish I kept the results from all those thousands of hands just so I could see my all in EV chart skyrocketing while I keep losing money. I'm not one to think paranoid or to call sites rigged, but my experience on merge seems incredibly unlikely. I logged hundreds of thousands of hands on both full tilt and pokerstars and never in my life lost this much money in provably +EV situations hand after hand. Can negative variance really last for 30,000+ hands? I thought that was impossible?

Anyway, I'm venting here, after a few drinks. I'm gonna stop deleting my histories no matter what my luck is and hopefully post some stats soon, that's what I'm promising myself with this post. Cheers.

[debacle]

Originally Posted by Free_Man

Can negative variance really last for 30,000+ hands? I thought that was impossible?

Yes.

Additionally, why would you delete anything other than the hands you got "sucked out on" (read: experienced negative variance on) if your goal was to create a positively trending graph?

It sounds to me like if I was rage deleting hand histories, I probably wasn't playing very emotionally-detached poker anyway.

[debacle]

Originally Posted by Free_Man

If it was just 3 hands then I would call it bad luck or variance.

Also, lol.

Both positive and negative results are variance.

[Cangurino]

Why would you delete any hand history?

We know all sorts of **** happens. Suckouts, spew, etc. If we selectively delete certain hands we introduce a bias in the data and thus render it useless for any analysis.

I hope you're aware of the all-in equity graph, which reduces the effects of suckouts.

[MightyDucks222]

was hoping to get some thoughts on my stats and graph.

I'm playing NL2, testing out new waters after breaking even for the past 2,000 sng's! good times






what would be optimal at nl2?

im limping all PP's up to 88 from any position trying to setmine, that accounts for a little bit of the gap between vpip and pfr

also how many bb's per 100 should i be aiming to hit, im relatively new to cash games! thx in advance

[R-Garnett]

Any and all thoughts please

[hRobi91]

After seeing all these statistics and checking out my own stats for the first time, I feel like I must be playing too tight. I am on NL4 playing at 11/9 after about 7k hands, is this too tight? Also my AF seems a lot higher than most of these stats I see, my AF is at 8.4, am I being too aggressive after flop?

[Mr Beer]

Originally Posted by MightyDucks222

what would be optimal at nl2?

im limping all PP's up to 88 from any position trying to setmine, that accounts for a little bit of the gap between vpip and pfr

also how many bb's per 100 should i be aiming to hit, im relatively new to cash games! thx in advance

Stop limping and start betting, 18/6 is pretty horrible. VPIP/PFR ration should be 75%+. 18/16 would be OK, so would 8/6 except PFR 6 is way too nitty. Something more like 12/10 is still nitty but you would be playing less marginal hands OOP and getting more value out of your better hands. Aggression is good, passivity is bad.

If you are first to act with baby pairs, either bet or fold - generally fold in EP and generally bet in LP. Overlimping with baby pairs is OK but if you are in position you should usually raise to isolate a single limper with hands like 88.

Don't aim for bb/100, aim to make correct decisions.

[Mr Beer]

Originally Posted by R-Garnett

Any and all thoughts please

18/13 is too large a gap, either fold a bit more or bet a bit more in position. Try to get the gap to 2 or 3. Stop limping UTG completely, open limping is bad.

Stop calling in the blinds so much, especially SB, fold or raise more.

Your 3% is pretty high if you are playing 2NL or 5NL, use your filters to check how you are doing on 3-bet pots. If you are winning great keep at it otherwise cut it down. 4% is also high for 2NL/5NL FR, you should only stack off pre against regs with AA/KK IMO. So if you are losing all in pre battles with AK/QQ/JJ, stop doing it. Obviously against maniacs and SS-ers you can loosen up.