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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

10-20-2008 , 08:13 AM
Another tourney player goes to FR, I was playing 100nl FR at a small site that you can't use pokertracker at but decided to move to a bigger site, I wanted to start out at 25NL and get my leaks plugged. Im going to move up soon but just looking for some input as not too sure what all these number mean.

I think my last couple of 000's of hands are less nitty

In some blind situations I feel alittle bit lost, so i think i have some leaks there

Don't go easy on me here






Last edited by DaExMan; 10-20-2008 at 08:17 AM. Reason: pictures ****ed up
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-20-2008 , 12:55 PM
This month I decided to fully switch to FR, as my 6max game can be well defined as breakeven. These are results since Oct, 1. I'm a bit concerned with my PL results, hope you guys can help me. When I game select, I don't make a distinction between NL and PL tables, I chose ones with plrs/flop >30%. Neither I make a distinction when playing the game. Maybe I should? Are there any adjustments that you guys make when switching from NL to PL tables? I mean, my PL results obv suck but I can't find the reason? Or maybe the number of hands I played is nothing? Or maybe I should totally avoid PL tables when table select?



PL:



NL:



Another question: last Friday I had a terrible session, lost 6BI in 1000k hands, was done for the day, and on the weekened somehow managed to get it back as quickly as I lost it. Is this common for FR game? I mean people say, FR is less variance then 6max but I can't remember losing 6BI in a session of 6max (though I play only 6 tables 6max opposed to 12-15 of FR).
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-20-2008 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdAA88
Hey guys, found this thread and think it's amazing! I've mainly played sngs for about a year unsuccessfully and decided that cash games were the way to go. I started out in August and struggled but 2p2 has helped quite a bit, however I still have a lot to learn, so I thought I'd post my stats and my graph for October so far in the hope to fix some of my leaks:

I realize my button numbers are horrible but I think I've improved that in the past couple of weeks.




Quote:
Originally Posted by techvoodoo
Here is my first 30k hands stats at 10NL. Looking forward to hearing some feedback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaExMan
Another tourney player goes to FR, I was playing 100nl FR at a small site that you can't use pokertracker at but decided to move to a bigger site, I wanted to start out at 25NL and get my leaks plugged. Im going to move up soon but just looking for some input as not too sure what all these number mean.

I think my last couple of 000's of hands are less nitty

In some blind situations I feel alittle bit lost, so i think i have some leaks there

Don't go easy on me here





jdAA88, techvoodoo and DaExMan:

I will get to your stats analyses in the next day or so; just hang in there for a while.

As I was getting caught up on this thread, I noticed the striking similarity in your non-showdown graph lines. See how they all start out ~break even and then tail off?

I would like to find out why. For starters, could you all reply to this post with:

stakes
site
inclusive dates represented by your graph
average hands/day

I'd be very interested if, for example, your red lines all started tailing off at about the same date.

Thanks, and, like I said, I'll do a detailed analysis for each of you in the next day or so.

mpethy
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-20-2008 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
jdAA88, techvoodoo and DaExMan:

I will get to your stats analyses in the next day or so; just hang in there for a while.

As I was getting caught up on this thread, I noticed the striking similarity in your non-showdown graph lines. See how they all start out ~break even and then tail off?

I would like to find out why. For starters, could you all reply to this post with:

stakes
site
inclusive dates represented by your graph
average hands/day

I'd be very interested if, for example, your red lines all started tailing off at about the same date.

Thanks, and, like I said, I'll do a detailed analysis for each of you in the next day or so.
mpethy
Thanks alot mpethy, anyways here's the info you need:
50nl on pokerstars
Dates are from Oct. 4th to Oct. 18th
Avg 1000-1500 hands/day
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-20-2008 , 09:01 PM
25NL on stars
Most (30k) of it was in september, approx 9th to 24th
2000 hands a day
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-20-2008 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
jdAA88, techvoodoo and DaExMan:

I will get to your stats analyses in the next day or so; just hang in there for a while.

As I was getting caught up on this thread, I noticed the striking similarity in your non-showdown graph lines. See how they all start out ~break even and then tail off?

I would like to find out why. For starters, could you all reply to this post with:

stakes
site
inclusive dates represented by your graph
average hands/day

I'd be very interested if, for example, your red lines all started tailing off at about the same date.

Thanks, and, like I said, I'll do a detailed analysis for each of you in the next day or so.

mpethy

Thanks mpethy,

To answer your questions:

stakes: 10NL
site: Fulltilt
inclusive dates represented by your graph: Sept. 01 2008 - Oct 15 2008
average hands/day: 800-1000 roughly

I've wondered specifically if my Non-SD line was a huge leak or standard. At 10NL cbetting with AK if I missed will often get called down by top/middle pair or worse but I keep making standard cbets on dry boards if I raise pre-flop. maybe thats a leak, but betting preflop and checking it down whenever I miss seems too weak.

I've filtered out the blinds on my graph and my non-SD line is significantly up in the positive, maybe I'm folding the blinds too much...

I don't know.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-21-2008 , 03:41 AM
Hi, fairly new to the forums, a couple of questions that I've tried to find the answer to and failed...

Fairly illiterate when it comes to computers, how do you capture the pictures of your stats? Keen to post stats, can't see how its done (Using HEM, if it matters).

I see in a lot of the stats given, there is a pretty big discrepancy in the number of hands played in each position - surely these should be almost exactly the same? Certainly positions like small and big blind, which are always there no matter how many players currently at the table.

I realise this isn't really a helpful question, but I'm curious.

Thanks.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-21-2008 , 08:02 AM
[IMG]C:\Users\User\Desktop\graph.emf[/IMG]

Testing to see if this works...
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-21-2008 , 08:03 AM
Hmmm. No luck.

???
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10-21-2008 , 08:05 AM
You need to host the image somewhere on the web, e.g., at imageshack. Then you can put a link to the URL here and the image will be displayed inline.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-21-2008 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bleep69
[IMG]C:\Users\User\Desktop\graph.emf[/IMG]

Testing to see if this works...
when you take a screenshot of your programs graphs and what not, you need to host it on a image hosting server online, i use www.tinypic.com since it doesn't require any sort of membership. also i'm not sure what .emf extension is, but i think you are going to want to convert your image to a .JPG.
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10-22-2008 , 04:52 AM
Can anybody give me an idea what big non-SD losses mean? I lose about 70% of my showdown winnings in non-SD pots (although it's getting better recently, 10% for this month).
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 08:17 AM
Quote:
when you take a screenshot of your programs graphs
Cool, thanks, next stupid question...

How do I take a screen shot?

I'm getting this horrible feeling that this is supremely simple to do, I'm just not seeing it.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 08:47 AM
[IMG]<a href="http://tinypic.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://i38.tinypic.com/2s7dhrt.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic"></a>[/IMG]


Trying again...

If it works, how come my red and blue lines seem the exact opposite to everyone else's?

Am I reading it right?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 08:49 AM
Sigh.

[IMG][/IMG]
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 08:50 AM
Hallelujah.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 08:50 AM
I don't know how other did it but I used a program called Quick Screen Capture, its free
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-22-2008 , 10:47 AM
Sorry, here's the rest...



Any thoughts?

I've had a fairly crap run, imo, recently, being outdrawn more than my fair share, if that makes any difference.

Thanks!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 03:00 AM



These are my first 6.5k hands I have ever played of online poker. I am winning, but it is only 2NL so I know i am playing no where near good. Although this sample size is small there should be enough to get a half decent analysis. Thanks.

Last edited by Limperschmit; 10-23-2008 at 03:23 AM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by techvoodoo
did i get missed?
I just saw a few things:

1. small blind. This is a small leak for you. read post 489 ITT; you probably are not trying hard enough to win some of the limped pots you wind up in.

2. button play. Not sure what the problem is here, but you have a pretty decent sample, and your button winrate is 1/3 lower than your cut off win rate. This ought not to happen. It could just be variance, but look back over your hands and make sre that you are not, for instance, pushing way too hard to win your steals.

In addition, your ATS at 30% is good, but try to get it up a few percentage points.

3. W$WSF is too low. This stat is affected by playing weak tight out of the blinds, so this might be at least partially cured by working on your blind play. In addition, you should be looking for spots where you can pick up orphan pots--on the button when it is checked to you, for instance. Also, look at your continuation bet %; a low c-bet% is going to reduce your W$WSF%

4. Consider tightening up in EP. Check the profitability of your EP limps and calls, and cut them way back if, as I suspect, they prove to be a leak for you.

Your non-sd line looks good, overall. I am still curious as to why it started out b/e in a fairly large number of hands and then tailed off, but overall it is fine.

I feel pretty confident also that you have some post-flop leaks that don't really show up in the stats analysis, simply because your win rate is significantly lower than I would expect it to be from your stats. So check things like your river calls, check your profitability in limped pots or pots where you called a preflop raise, and check the profitability of your pocket pairs. Any negative numbers indicate leaks, as would a small positive number for AA/KK/QQ, with which you should be winning about 5ptbb/hand each.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaExMan
Another tourney player goes to FR, I was playing 100nl FR at a small site that you can't use pokertracker at but decided to move to a bigger site, I wanted to start out at 25NL and get my leaks plugged. Im going to move up soon but just looking for some input as not too sure what all these number mean.

I think my last couple of 000's of hands are less nitty

In some blind situations I feel alittle bit lost, so i think i have some leaks there

Don't go easy on me here





I'm not going easy on you, your stats are really, really good. I saw a few things:

1. ATS is too low. Your vpip/pfr in LP is too low, which means you are not stealing enough. You should be stealing 30-35% of the time--your vpip/pfr suggests to me that you are probably in the low to mid-20s. Be more aggressive first in from the cut off and the button. Once you get comfortable stealing like crazy from these positions, start treating the hijack like a stealing position when your left is clear.

2. Your vpip/pfr is just a touch out of line. I'd like to see this get to 12/8 or 12/9--the easiest and most profitable way to do this would be to cut out some EP limps--raise them or fold them depending on table conditions. Combined with stealing more from LP, this will bump up your aggression and rearrange your hands a bit so you are playing a higher proportion in position and with the initiative that comes from being the preflop raiser.

3. Your BB loss rate is a tiny bit high. It is not in the range that I consider a leak, but you seem capable of getting it down some. You'll have to look back through your BB hands to figure out what you are doing wrong--maybe you have to defend more, or maybe you have to defend less. I really can't tell from the stats. I don't think the problem is in your 3 betting, which looks fine to me.

4. River play. Here's what I did to come to this conclusion: I looked at the shape of your non-sd line. The fact that it starts out level and then tails off into a downward angle. Then I looked at your SD line which changes its angle sharply upward at about the same time the non-sd line starts downward. Then I looked at your river agression factor of 1.1 OTB, indicating that you call on the river essentially as often as you bet/raise on the river. Your river aggression basically decreases as your position gets later, indicating that you are playing these hands much more slowly than the big hands you play from EP. Based on this evidence, I suspect that you are not betting your hand enough on the river when it is best. I think you have started checking behind and check/calling a lot more than you used to, and this has moved a lot of your winnings from the non-sd line to the sd line. The fact that you said the last few thousand hands have been less nitty supports me in this, suggesting that you are getting more marginal hands to showdown.

I'm not prepared to say this is a leak, but it is something you are going to want to study very carefully, because you could be missing value on the river. I think you probably are. Go back through your hand histories and look for hands that went to showdown with a check/check on the river or where you check/call. For the winners you find, study the villain's play, put him on a range, and then determine whether you could or should have bet the river for value.

Do this for the losers, too--look for villains who won with a weak holding and see if there was an indication in the hand that a bet would have gotten the villain off his hand.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdAA88
Hey guys, found this thread and think it's amazing! I've mainly played sngs for about a year unsuccessfully and decided that cash games were the way to go. I started out in August and struggled but 2p2 has helped quite a bit, however I still have a lot to learn, so I thought I'd post my stats and my graph for October so far in the hope to fix some of my leaks:

I realize my button numbers are horrible but I think I've improved that in the past couple of weeks.




The only thing I see is that your ccpf numbers are HUGE. I think you need to be calling a lot less. Run a fliter and look at the hands where you call a preflop raise. This number HAS to be negative, or you will become my ccpf idol.

eveything else looks pretty good. I really want to tell you to tighten up in EP, but, you are making money playing really loose in EP, so there's no reason to change at the moment. If your EP win rate starts going down, though, you should assume that it is a leak and you need to tighten up. Don't blame it on variance if that happens.

Otherwise, I don't see much that I would change.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hochiminh
This month I decided to fully switch to FR, as my 6max game can be well defined as breakeven. These are results since Oct, 1. I'm a bit concerned with my PL results, hope you guys can help me. When I game select, I don't make a distinction between NL and PL tables, I chose ones with plrs/flop >30%. Neither I make a distinction when playing the game. Maybe I should? Are there any adjustments that you guys make when switching from NL to PL tables? I mean, my PL results obv suck but I can't find the reason? Or maybe the number of hands I played is nothing? Or maybe I should totally avoid PL tables when table select?



PL:



NL:



Another question: last Friday I had a terrible session, lost 6BI in 1000k hands, was done for the day, and on the weekened somehow managed to get it back as quickly as I lost it. Is this common for FR game? I mean people say, FR is less variance then 6max but I can't remember losing 6BI in a session of 6max (though I play only 6 tables 6max opposed to 12-15 of FR).
I'm sort of going to skip over your 6 max v. FR questions by saying two things:

1. as you make the switch, just keep in mind that perceived ranges are tighter in FR than in 6 max, and actual ranges are usually tighter, too. Having the nuts becomes more important in really big pots and when facing a lot of aggression.

2. If you are a DC member, you really have to watch episodes 4 and 5 of the coaching tree series. These vids contain brilliant discussion of the differences between 6 max and FR. If you are not a member, consider becoming a member to watch these videos--they are that important to making the switch.

as for your stats: I could nit pick them a bit, but really, the thing that jumps out at me is the lack of respect you are showing for positional awareness in the FR game. Your VPIP/PFR in EP is almost identical to your average vpip/pfr, for example. You need to completely rethink your preflop strategy for the FR game.

For somebody who plays 12/9 or 12/8, what we usually see is that the person is playing 6/6 or so from ep, maybe opening up to 7/7 or 8/8 from mp1 but then he really starts to open up and play, say, 13/10 in middle position and an average of about 20/15 from the 3 late positions.

These are not stats to aim for, they are stats that result from thinking of position and initiative as being as important as your cards, and doing certain things:

1. only playing strong hands when you are out of position.
2. isolating limpers by raising IP with a wide range.
3. raising first in, pretty much always.
4. 3 betting aggressively.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
The only thing I see is that your ccpf numbers are HUGE. I think you need to be calling a lot less. Run a fliter and look at the hands where you call a preflop raise. This number HAS to be negative, or you will become my ccpf idol.

eveything else looks pretty good. I really want to tell you to tighten up in EP, but, you are making money playing really loose in EP, so there's no reason to change at the moment. If your EP win rate starts going down, though, you should assume that it is a leak and you need to tighten up. Don't blame it on variance if that happens.

Otherwise, I don't see much that I would change.
Thanks for the input mpethy! BTW someone had mentioned that you made a full ring video, know where I could find it?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bleep69
I see in a lot of the stats given, there is a pretty big discrepancy in the number of hands played in each position - surely these should be almost exactly the same? Certainly positions like small and big blind, which are always there no matter how many players currently at the table.

I realise this isn't really a helpful question, but I'm curious.

Thanks.
I can't tell from your question whether you are talking about hands dealt or hands played.

as for hands played: of course we play more hands in late position than we do in mp, and we play more in mp than in ep. this is just basic positional awareness.

as for hands dealt, I almost never quit a session while I am in late position. I will if I am tilting or whatever, but ordinarily I will wait at least until I have played the stealing positions before I quit. Best practice is to play all the way to UTG, obviously, but I often do not. Thus, I end up being dealt more hands in LP than I do in other positions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
Can anybody give me an idea what big non-SD losses mean? I lose about 70% of my showdown winnings in non-SD pots (although it's getting better recently, 10% for this month).
I don't think anybody has a definition for "big," here. Almost all Tags lose some in non-sd, which for the good players is confined to blind losses and maybe ep non-sd losses, but obviously the amount of losses in a big sample varies with the skill of the player. I think it is virtually impossible to sustain a win rate of greater than 1.5 or 2 ptbb/100 if you are losing 70% of your non-sd winnings. I did some math on this once but I am far too lazy to look for it or replicate it.

FWIW, I would consider it a major leak if you are keeping less than 30% of your showdown winnings, and I would consider it a leak if you are keeping less than half.

If you went from losing 70% of your sd winnings to losing only 10% in a month, you are almost certainly running white hot, and should continue to focus on identifying and plugging your non-sd leaks (most ikely blind play).
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