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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

06-18-2013 , 11:32 AM
Am I supposed to be winning more with 3 of a kind than straights? This is final hands at showdown report in PT4

25nl and below


50nl and above
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06-18-2013 , 11:33 AM
Why not? They're better disguised. It may also depend on your selection of pairs and connectors.
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06-18-2013 , 11:51 AM
Yeah I can see the reasoning, just want to make sure I'm not doing anything dumb.
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06-19-2013 , 10:27 PM


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06-20-2013 , 02:49 PM
You're far too passive post flop. Looks like you're missing a lot of value.

Your blind defense numbers are indicative of a leak in the blinds.

You could steal and resteal some more, but I'm not sure I'd recommend it yet without seeing more of your stats.

You're folding the best hand too often. Your river decisions are based on whether you think you have the best hand, not whether you beat x% of the guy's range.
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06-21-2013 , 01:59 PM
Now then!!! I have being playing cash for the last few months I have read a fair amount of content and watched some good poker videos on DC. I'd say I've being playing breakeven at 10nl for awhile now and was wondering if you could spot any leaks to help squeeze those extra bb's out. Thanks in advance.



I did recognise that my cbet was too low and over the latter 10k I have increased this to 68.6% with 52.7% success.
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06-21-2013 , 05:03 PM
$undance:

Your sample is really small, and is apparently heavily influenced by variance. I don't think you should be drawing conclusions based on it just yet.

Currently, you're getting slaughtered in the blinds and on the button. You probably have way bigger problems than minor things like your c-betting %. You're probably cold calling out of the blinds for a big loss, and something is going horribly wrong on the button--either variance or you're playing a common situation unprofitably (cold calling, stealing, something like that).

My best suggestion to you is to go ahead and play another 15k hands, and then hit me up for a free 2 hour database analysis.

also, read my cotw on redline. You need some help there.
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06-21-2013 , 06:15 PM
mpethybridge:

Yeah I am bleeding from the blinds a fair bit. I will look at your COTW and look up some more theory on playing from the blinds. Best start grinding that 15k out. Thanks for the generous offer, look forward to it.
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06-24-2013 , 08:22 AM
Hey guys, I'm specifically looking for help playing from the blinds.
At the moment, I'm losing a ridiculous amount from the BB.
All stats are from 25NL regular fr tables.



I know that I'm folding way too much SB f2St = 89.6% and BB f2st = 85%.
I need help constructing a cold calling range and 3betting range.

As a starting point, I constructed a general range for calling and 3betting.

Cold calling range


3betting range


These ranges are V dependent.
If V steals wide then I'll 3bet more suited connectors and pocket pairs.
If V has a tight steal range, then I'll 3bet with a polarized range: KK+, AK, suited aces and remove the broadway hands.

Any input will be appreciated.
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06-24-2013 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trisector777
At the moment, I'm losing a ridiculous amount from the BB.
No, you don't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trisector777

I know that I'm folding way too much SB f2St = 89.6% and BB f2st = 85%.
How do you know that?
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06-24-2013 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
No, you don't.

How do you know that?
I thought that losing 48.8bb/100 would be considered quite bad.

If I saw players in the blinds with f2ST that high, I would steal with a very wide range.
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06-24-2013 , 09:56 AM
If you fold you BB you lose 100bb/100. You make half of that back, which is ok (not great, mind you).

You would steal wide, but do they? If they do, how do you react?
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06-24-2013 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
If you fold you BB you lose 100bb/100. You make half of that back, which is ok (not great, mind you).

You would steal wide, but do they? If they do, how do you react?
I have a problem when people steal wider against me. The fact is I don't know if I am reacting correctly. Fwiw I feel more lost when BTN min opens or 2.5x's

When I see V steal with +-25% over a decent sample, then I feel I need to play back in order to avoid being exploited.
Cold-calling from the blinds and playing fit-fold is something that I have a problem with, so I usually 3bet or fold even if I know they're stealing wide.
Recently I've been 3betting when I see that V has a high fold to resteal or high flop fold to cbet.
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06-24-2013 , 10:23 AM
Flatting and then playing fit-or-fold isn't ideal, but if they minraise you can even do that quite a lot since you get good odds. However, depending on their postflop tendencies you can still call preflop and c/r with equity.

That being said, at 25% I wouldn't worry yet. The button has the best hand 33% of the time, and he has position, so you may just let him have it. Now if he steals 50%+ you should start thinking about how to play OOP against a wide range.
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06-24-2013 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
Now if he steals 50%+ you should start thinking about how to play OOP against a wide range.
Should I be opening wider from the CO and BTN because the blinds won't play back often enough?

Thanks for your advice.

Last edited by Trisector777; 06-24-2013 at 11:14 AM. Reason: thanks Mzbourg
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06-24-2013 , 11:04 AM
You should open wider from those positions because people still fold too much.
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06-24-2013 , 05:10 PM
Trisector: Cangurino is right, you're not losing too much from the blinds. Your loss rate is what I have long considered the maximum blind losses that I do not consider a leak.

Don't give up on improving and studying your blind play, because there is room for improvement there, but I want you to have a realistic idea of your blind play so you can prioritize correctly. If you have any actual leaks, they are more important to you than working on your blind play.
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06-24-2013 , 05:36 PM
Hey guys played 20 k hands of 2 nl full ring zoom this week. I used hem to keep record of my stats but I turned off the HUD cause I wanted to see how I played without one. My stats:

Cbet 76%
Cbet success 47%
8 bb\100
Turn bet 36%· turn cbet success 38%
3 bet 2.5%
Vpip 12%
Pfr 10%

I played abc poker without a hud, no fancy plays. I want to ask if is enough to beat 5 nl and 10 nl zoom. What about 25 nl?
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06-24-2013 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Trisector: Cangurino is right, you're not losing too much from the blinds. Your loss rate is what I have long considered the maximum blind losses that I do not consider a leak.

Don't give up on improving and studying your blind play, because there is room for improvement there, but I want you to have a realistic idea of your blind play so you can prioritize correctly. If you have any actual leaks, they are more important to you than working on your blind play.
I''ll try to focus on other aspects for the moment. I probably need to post more hands.
Thanks a lot for your input.

Ok so a different question altogether, how do I use agg and agg% to find leaks in my game?
What other stats do I use in conjunction with them to find leaks?
My 2 low winrates are in EP+1 and MP, where my agg % is 44% and 40% respectively. I noticed that those are the positions where my agg % is at its highest.

So is there anything that I can infer from that, apart from probably check-calling marginal hands against aggressive villains more often?
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06-24-2013 , 08:25 PM
It's completely natural and correct for your EP aggression stats to be highest. Your range is strongest, we need to c-bet air to profit from raising our unpaired hands and such like.

We could all probably benefit from incorporating trapper lines into our game, but doing so really won't change your stats much, because good spots to trap are comparatively rare.

I don't use aggression stats to diagnose many leaks in looking at youroverall positional win rates. I'm far more likely to look at flop and turn c-betting stats to see if you're taking appropriate lines.

If you'll repost your stats in a bigger image, I'll do a detailed review. But my old eyes had a really hard time reading your screenshots.
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06-25-2013 , 01:59 AM
wtf is this and should i be worried? i get that it doesnt account for the times that i shove and villain folds but still.

when i filter for JJ+/AK (one hand at a time) the biggest issue is AK.

sample size is 89k.



edit: here is graph on larger sample, ~200k hands. standard?


Last edited by YouFaiil; 06-25-2013 at 02:05 AM.
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06-25-2013 , 03:23 AM
Yeah, that's probably a leak.
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06-25-2013 , 06:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
If you'll repost your stats in a bigger image, I'll do a detailed review. But my old eyes had a really hard time reading your screenshots.
Sorry about that. I don't know why but I can't get the pic to display in the thread, but it displays clearly when you open the pic in a new tab. Hope this isn't too much of an inconvenience.

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06-25-2013 , 07:46 AM
Hi, this is my last 50K+ hands at NL25 (95%)

Can you please point out some obvious leaks ? Thanks




[img]http://s11.************/nt69rpioh/NL25_FR_3.jpg[/img]

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06-25-2013 , 12:40 PM
YF there is a huge difference between when you shove and when you call and you need to filter for them separately.

When you call you should always have decent equity so your graph should be going up.

When you shove a lot of the time you'll be bluffing (hands like QQ or AK are a bluff since they have 40% equity against a calling) and when you get called you will be losing, but if you just filtered for when you shoved you should be losing less than 10bb (you'll lose your 3bet when you fold) by quite a bit.
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