Greetings Everyone! First time poster, Long time reader.
I could really use some help figuring out why I can't seem to do better than break-even at 10NL. Now I want everyone to know that I have been reading and searching the forum to find my own answers, and solve as many problems as I could on my own before throwing up this post. I started playing back in September. When I first started out at 2NL I had no regard for position, I played 20 tables at a time, I never stole the blinds, I never 3bet or squeezed, I slow played top pair, and I never Cbet, and my Stats where far from ideal.
Needless to say, since September I have been correcting these issues one by one, and I have managed to work my way up to 10NL. At 10NL, I feel I have a good understanding of what everyone is doing. My Stats are within the suggest guidelines, with a few reasonable (but still profitable) exceptions. I feel that I'm playing pretty solid poker. First I started playing only 2 tables, and slowly worked to 10, which is still very comfortable. I'm extracting value when I can, I'm squeezing in position, I'm Cbetting in the right spots, I'm floating the right opponents, I'm stealing and defending my blinds in a profitable manner, but yet I'm still just breaking even.
I have been looking through some of my stats, and I think the problem is related to seeing too many showdowns with just one or two pair. I've run some filters, and I'm losing when I BET-CALL on the turn (-$100) and/or river (-$215) with anything less than a set. I'm also losing in the same situation for the CHECK-CALL line (-$90 Turn & -$135 Riv). The total losses for both lines on both streets is about $550. At first I thought, "Great, I'll just fold when I get bet into on the turn or river, while I hold anything less than a set, and that should add $550 over the equal sample size". Now this seems logical at first, but then when I thought about it more, I realized that I can't just add up all those losses, and expect that to be my savings if I chose to fold because, 1) Some of the hands I'm calling on the turn are the same hands I'm calling on the River, and 2)Just folding in those situations, won't save me the total losses for the whole hand, it will only save me that last bet which I called. So I wouldn't see $550 in savings, it's more likely to be something like $200 max.
So the questions is, does anyone agree that this is my problem, do you think it's something else? Below you will find my "Leak Buster" Stats from HEM2, as well as my sorry @$$ graph, and positional stats. Thank you for your time guys, I look forward to any criticism you have to offer.
A couple of Notes:
1) I know I could be stealing a bit more, so I'm I'm adding a few hands on the CO.
2) I know 83% is high for cbet, but I raise 3xBB and I cBet 2/3 pot size, so I'm profitable at 47% success rate. It works at this limit, but i will adjust if I ever move up.
3) Some may consider my 3bets from SB to be high, but it works 70% of the time, I feel it's a tad low. I feel my SB play could be improved, but I'm not sure how. However, I think my BB play is working as I'm saving some 63bb/100 compared to just folding. (Is this correct?)
4) Currently my WTSD% is 24%, while my W$WSD% is 42%, This is obviously out of the suggested range for TAG/LAGs, but I don't think this implies I need to see more showdowns, I think it's telling me that for my current style of play to be more profitable, I need to move towards 20% WTSD. Which fits with my earlier hypothesis, of seeing fewer showdowns with two pairs or top pair, when I'm bet into on the turn and/or river. What do you think????
Last edited by slingblade; 12-10-2012 at 03:40 AM.
Reason: Spelling mistake