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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

08-23-2008 , 05:32 PM
RockHolly:

In a previous post, you defended your late position play, saying you do steal quite a bit and you do raise limpers. Looking at the stats in your album, I strongly agree with this. Your button and cut off play is very good. You should bump it up some, maybe pick 5 or 6 hands more and add them to the hands you will attempt to steal with, but, in general, it seems clear to me that you are very solid in LP.


There are two stats in your album that jump out at me as showing evidence of your leaks.

Your W$WSF is 29% This is very low. The best players at $50, $100 and $200 are typically at about 40%.

The second is your turn aggression factor of 1.42.

Reading these stats together, it must be true that you are losing a lot of pots where you put money in on the flop. Your flop aggression factor is 2.5 and your turn aggression falls off to 1.4. This indicates that you are "pot controlling," a lot on the turn. You bet the flop, then check/call or call almost as often as you bet again (an AF of 1 means you raise or bet exactly as often as you call).

To figure out what to do here: filter your tracking software and look at the hands where your action on the turn was "call." Try to look at each hand and find a reason to have bet or folded. For example, suppose you were in position with a good draw, say, a draw to the nut flush. Did you call on the turn? If so, maybe you should have raised. Maybe the villain would have folded? Or maybe the villain offered you bad odds and you should have folded instead of calling. See what I mean? Go through all your turn calls (recently) and try to find an alternative to calling that would give you a chance to lose less or to win the pot.

A lot of the time this low turn aggression factor is the sign of a regular, skilled player who is taking a lot of pot control lines out of position with an overpair to avoid being stacked by a set. STOP this unless a scare card comes on the turn. Your default line with an overpair should be bet/bet/bet, not bet/check-call. The effect of this is that you will sometimes induce a fold on the turn from the villain, and this becomes a non-showdown win rather than a showdown loss (when the villain gets there on the river, for example)

You are leaking a bit, but not a lot, from the blinds. Try to reduce your losses from the big blind by about 0.03ptbb/hand, and in the SB by 0.04ptbb/hand. The way to do this is to add just a few hands to the hands you consider ok to defend your blinds with, and then play pretty aggressively post flop. When you see the flop, don't ask yourself, "did i hit my hand?" Ask yourself, "did this flop hit the button's stealing range?" If it didn't, donking right into him will win a fair number of pots.

In fact, this advice applies to you in all positions. With a W$WSF of 29%, you are basically playing "fit or fold," poker.

in middle to late position, you are cold calling A LOT of pre flop raises. This is fine, as long as you are not just trying to hit a hand, but are willing to float an occasional hand, or if you try to take the pot away often. If you are inclined to play "no set no bet," you'd probably be better off folding these hands.

How do you play your draws? When you are in position against a preflop raiser and you flop a combo draw (say a flush draw and a gut shot straight draw) do you raise the villain's c-bet? Are you willing to shove all in in spots like that against some opponents?

When you have cold-called in position, you have to make sure that you USE position to try to win some pots.

In your tracking software, filter for the hands where you call a preflop raise with suited connectors. Check your winrates. If they are negative in this sample, it probably means you are not playing them aggressively enough. You can increase your win rate either by playing them more aggressively or folding them preflop.

The last thing i saw that jumped out at me was your W$@SD figures. These are insanely HIGH. Your definition of what you think is likely to be a winning hand is way too strict. You are folding the best hand probably something like 8% - 10% of the time you see a flop. this is costing you a fortune.

OK, i said 10 or 15 minutes, and it has been longer, so i am posting what I have so far. I hope this helps.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-23-2008 , 06:24 PM
mpeth thanks so much for your long response. my turn aggression is actually 1.92 not 1.42, not sure how much that changes your thoughts. here's a shorter reply to your observations:

1. i am in the habit of cont betting and then giving up on the turn. i find that smooth calls rarely mean the person doesn't have a hand at this level. whenever i try and float the turn as well i seem to bleed money because they have the better hand.

2. i play my draws aggressively but think suited connectors generally suck. whenever i play them they hit almost never and i'll rarely get paid. i think these hands are a waste in most situations unless it's to try and steal and float if called on the flop. aside from AKs my SCs are a loser in almost all regards.

3. "The last thing i saw that jumped out at me was your W$@SD figures. These are insanely HIGH. Your definition of what you think is likely to be a winning hand is way too strict. You are folding the best hand probably something like 8% - 10% of the time you see a flop. this is costing you a fortune" ---- why do you think this and can you provide 1-2 examples of when i am folding when i shouldn't be? i really need to understand with real hand example(s) to see clearer what you are getting at.

Thanks so much!!!

Rock
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-23-2008 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockholly
mpeth thanks so much for your long response. my turn aggression is actually 1.92 not 1.42, not sure how much that changes your thoughts. here's a shorter reply to your observations:

1. i am in the habit of cont betting and then giving up on the turn. i find that smooth calls rarely mean the person doesn't have a hand at this level. whenever i try and float the turn as well i seem to bleed money because they have the better hand.

2. i play my draws aggressively but think suited connectors generally suck. whenever i play them they hit almost never and i'll rarely get paid. i think these hands are a waste in most situations unless it's to try and steal and float if called on the flop. aside from AKs my SCs are a loser in almost all regards.

3. "The last thing i saw that jumped out at me was your W$@SD figures. These are insanely HIGH. Your definition of what you think is likely to be a winning hand is way too strict. You are folding the best hand probably something like 8% - 10% of the time you see a flop. this is costing you a fortune" ---- why do you think this and can you provide 1-2 examples of when i am folding when i shouldn't be? i really need to understand with real hand example(s) to see clearer what you are getting at.

Thanks so much!!!

Rock
okay. i said 10-15 minutes last time and it took half an hour. So: I'll be back this time in half an hour.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-23-2008 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockholly
mpeth thanks so much for your long response. my turn aggression is actually 1.92 not 1.42, not sure how much that changes your thoughts. here's a shorter reply to your observations:

1. i am in the habit of cont betting and then giving up on the turn. i find that smooth calls rarely mean the person doesn't have a hand at this level. whenever i try and float the turn as well i seem to bleed money because they have the better hand.

I agree. But "a hand" does not automatically equal "the best hand." Nor does it automatically equal "a hand that can call another big bet on the turn." You have to look for spots that yu can take the hand away regardless of the cards in your hand.

2. i play my draws aggressively but think suited connectors generally suck. whenever i play them they hit almost never and i'll rarely get paid. i think these hands are a waste in most situations unless it's to try and steal and float if called on the flop. aside from AKs my SCs are a loser in almost all regards.

suited connectors as a group excluding AKs and AQs are small winners for me in a big sample. Some are positive, some are negative, depending on whether I have been running hot or cold with that particular hand, but as a group I am positive with them. If you are not, then yeah, fold them preflop except for stealing with them. But also be studying how to play them, and start to add them back into the mix, because, eventually, you will be able to play them for a profit.

3. "The last thing i saw that jumped out at me was your W$@SD figures. These are insanely HIGH. Your definition of what you think is likely to be a winning hand is way too strict. You are folding the best hand probably something like 8% - 10% of the time you see a flop. this is costing you a fortune" ---- why do you think this and can you provide 1-2 examples of when i am folding when i shouldn't be? i really need to understand with real hand example(s) to see clearer what you are getting at.


I spend A LOT of time looking at the stats of a lot of different players. 99% of them have two things in common that are relevant to this question: 1. They are better players than I am. 2. They have W$@SD figures around 48-55% and W$WSF% around 40% By contrast, your stats were 29% W$WSF and >60% W$@SD. So you are losing a higher percentage of pots but winning a lot more at showdown. The only logical explanation for this in a 100,000 hand sample is that you are not showing down a lot of hands that the best players are showing down--the marginal ones--the ones where you will be wrong a lot, but you will have the best hand slightly more often than you are wrong. The reason i chose the 8-10% figure is that your W$WSF is about 8% too low for a winning player, and your W$@SD figures were, on average, about 10% higher than the best players whose stats i have reviewed. This can't be a coincidence, in my opinion.
Thanks so much!!!

Rock
I had selected a few hands from my db to illustrate the marginal situations where I showdown hands you are probably folding, but the hand converter did not work for some reason, so I have to go find them again. My next post will be about 3-5 hands that i think are good examples of situations where I got to showdown where you would probably not have taken the hand to showdown. I can't KNOW that; we will have to rely on your judgment about how you would play these hands--but look at them carefully and see if you would have gotten them to showdown, whether you would have been pretty sure you had the best hand, as I was in each situation (though I had no clear reads on any of these players).
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-23-2008 , 07:56 PM
I can't get the converter to work.

here are 4 raw HHs:

Full Tilt Poker Game #7760458455: Table Ogden - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:00:38 ET - 2008/08/22
Seat 1: frogsooners ($100)
Seat 2: BDMACHINE11 ($20)
Seat 3: my retirement ($18.50)
Seat 4: pini94 ($0), is sitting out
Seat 5: StoneColdNz ($100)
Seat 6: eoqkrakdhkd ($109.15)
Seat 7: ST2006 ($86.15)
Seat 8: GECKO-NATE ($23.50)
Seat 9: mpethybridge ($214.90)
mpethybridge posts the small blind of $0.50
frogsooners posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mpethybridge [5s 5c]
BDMACHINE11 folds
my retirement folds
eoqkrakdhkd folds
ST2006 calls $1
GECKO-NATE folds
mpethybridge calls $0.50
frogsooners checks
*** FLOP *** [4s 2s 8h]
mpethybridge bets $2
frogsooners folds
ST2006 calls $2
*** TURN *** [4s 2s 8h] [9s]
mpethybridge checks
ST2006 checks
*** RIVER *** [4s 2s 8h 9s] [As]
mpethybridge checks
ST2006 bets $6
mpethybridge has 15 seconds left to act
mpethybridge: lol, i have the 5 of spades. nice bet
mpethybridge has requested TIME
mpethybridge calls $6
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ST2006 shows [Qd Kc] Ace King high
mpethybridge shows [5s 5c] a flush, Ace high
mpethybridge wins the pot ($18.05) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $19 | Rake $0.95
Board: [4s 2s 8h 9s As]
Seat 1: frogsooners (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: BDMACHINE11 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: my retirement didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: pini94 is sitting out
Seat 5: StoneColdNz is sitting out
Seat 6: eoqkrakdhkd didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: ST2006 showed [Qd Kc] and lost with Ace King high
Seat 8: GECKO-NATE (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: mpethybridge (small blind) showed [5s 5c] and won ($18.05) with a flush, Ace high

***** Hand History for Game 7514017314 *****
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 04, 07:37:24 ET 2008
Table Hayne (deep) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: TiltThisDude ( $60.15 USD )
Seat 2: Nothingman86 ( $172.10 USD )
Seat 3: Hamish6 ( $202.95 USD )
Seat 4: bjm3815 ( $18.15 USD )
Seat 5: nutzcracka12 ( $221.80 USD )
Seat 6: mpethybridge ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 7: HarrisonR ( $49.00 USD )
Seat 8: marcomarie ( $90.00 USD )
Seat 9: Botboy141 ( $50.00 USD )
HarrisonR posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
marcomarie posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mpethybridge [ 7c 7h ]
Botboy141 folds
TiltThisDude folds
Nothingman86 folds
Hamish6 folds
bjm3815 folds
nutzcracka12 folds
mpethybridge raises [$3.50 USD]
HarrisonR folds
marcomarie calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, 8c, 4d ]
marcomarie checks
mpethybridge bets [$5.00 USD]
marcomarie calls [$5.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
marcomarie checks
mpethybridge checks
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
marcomarie bets [$12.00 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$12.00 USD]
marcomarie shows [Tc, 9s ]
mpethybridge shows [7c, 7h ]
mpethybridge wins $39.45 USD from main pot

***** Hand History for Game 7471349592 *****
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, August 01, 08:41:45 ET 2008
Table Elkridge (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: j6s ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 2: Panik TBA ( $25.60 USD )
Seat 3: mpethybridge ( $61.55 USD )
Seat 4: JJACK41 ( $80.40 USD )
Seat 5: Greko2 ( $50.80 USD )
Seat 6: midnight17 ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 7: dbuckeye1 ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 8: GreedyBull ( $52.70 USD )
Seat 9: abgr8 ( $52.80 USD )
Greko2 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
midnight17 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mpethybridge [ Tc Td ]
GreedyBull folds
abgr8 folds
j6s folds
Panik TBA raises [$1.50 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$1.50 USD]
JJACK41 folds
Greko2 folds
midnight17 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 7s, 8d ]
Panik TBA bets [$3.75 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$3.75 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
Panik TBA bets [$3.75 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$3.75 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
Panik TBA bets [$6.60 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$6.60 USD]
Panik TBA shows [Js, 9s ]
mpethybridge shows [Tc, Td ]
mpethybridge wins $30.40 USD from main pot

***** Hand History for Game 7456380447 *****
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, July 31, 07:01:37 ET 2008
Table Birdwood (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: KcRazr ( $50.75 USD )
Seat 2: danioro ( $97.35 USD )
Seat 3: Desertgoldman ( $74.25 USD )
Seat 4: Ssij ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 5: Raven1337 ( $11.25 USD )
Seat 6: mpethybridge ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 7: KiIIuminati ( $80.15 USD )
Seat 8: minialleN ( $13.05 USD )
Seat 9: mbburch ( $21.35 USD )
mbburch posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
KcRazr posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mpethybridge [ Js Kd ]
danioro calls [$0.50 USD]
Ssij folds
Raven1337 folds
mpethybridge raises [$2.25 USD]
KiIIuminati folds
minialleN folds
mbburch folds
KcRazr folds
danioro calls [$1.75 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Qc, 4s ]
danioro checks
mpethybridge checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
danioro bets [$3.50 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$3.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
danioro bets [$10.50 USD]
mpethybridge calls [$10.50 USD]
danioro shows [2s, As ]
mpethybridge shows [Js, Kd ]
mpethybridge wins $31.60 USD from main pot
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-24-2008 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Bando
sl, here's the things I notice.

1)Your PRF divided by your VPIP is about 1/3rd. OP says 2/3rds is good. Most people at these levels don't fight back when they should. Preflop raise, cbet, win. It's not THAT basic, but it's close.

2)You could steal a little more.

3)I can't really comment on your Total AF since you have Pre added in there, but the individual streets look fine.

4)Not enough raises in late position. A graph of your VPIP goes lower the closer you get to the blinds, your PFR graph is a line.

Just my opinion though, gl.
Thanks alot man, much appreciated!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-24-2008 , 11:59 PM
http://img242.imageshack.us/my.php?image=10kyo9.jpg

http://img244.imageshack.us/my.php?image=10k1bi5.jpg

http://img153.imageshack.us/my.php?i...t821536qg5.png

I posted these stats in the Beginner's Forum, but I figure I would try here as well.

First 10k Hands at Pokerstars 2NL. Thank you for all of your help!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-25-2008 , 06:26 PM
Ok guys this is 20NL FR. I started at a new site on the iPoker net, after building my roll to 1K with SNGs (ongame). Then I had to readpt to cash games and decided to play a few hands.

I was running very bad at the beggining, also I didn't know many of the regs I was playing against, and I didn't have their stats untill later...
(Basically the place is full of ubernitty regs and shortstack).

Now I'm slooooowly building up to $0

my stats are 13/8/2 actually

What about non shodwown winnings ?? I'm losing a lot there....

PS: I know 11k hands is still nothing, but you know, I'd like to hear something...


Last edited by gabrigee; 08-25-2008 at 06:33 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-25-2008 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mirrari
http://img242.imageshack.us/my.php?image=10kyo9.jpg

http://img244.imageshack.us/my.php?image=10k1bi5.jpg

http://img153.imageshack.us/my.php?i...t821536qg5.png

I posted these stats in the Beginner's Forum, but I figure I would try here as well.

First 10k Hands at Pokerstars 2NL. Thank you for all of your help!
wow, very, very nice stats. My suggestion is keep doing exactly what you are doing all the way up through NL $25.

Maybe try to get the W$@SD >50, but I'm not sure you could do that without hurting your non-SD winnings. I think just keep crushing.

Congrats, post again at 40,000 for a check up.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-25-2008 , 07:12 PM
please read the bolded statement in post 434.

the ensuing discussion through post 454 probably applies to you as well, as it seems you are getting creamed in non-SD pots.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-26-2008 , 07:25 AM
Ok here I am with more data:







Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-26-2008 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabrigee
Ok here I am with more data:







1. Try to 3 bet more--about twice as often as you have been. Try to 3 bet OTB sometimes when the CO raises, try raising obvious button steals when you are in the blinds. Don't go crazy, just throw one in every now and then when you have a suited connector or a good ace or something like that.

2. Raise to steal OTB about 50% more often.

3. Raise to steal in the CO about 50% more often.

4. cold call preflop raises a lot less in all positions. Your ccpf in the CO and otb is way too high.

5. You are losing too much from the blinds, as I suspected, so the discussion above does apply to you.

I also noticed that in the small sample shown in the screenshot, you have lost $ with AJ, JJ and KK. This may mean that you have been running bad (hell, it definitely means that) but you also need to make sure (by reviewing hand histories and noticing the betting lines people are taking when they have your overpair beat, for example) that you are losing the minimum when your premium hands are beat. This is a common leak for people who come to FR from tourney play--in tourney play you are usually happy to get all in with an overpair, but in FR it is not an automatic shove. You have to evaluate flop texture, villain tendencies, etc. on a case by case basis. If you are stacking off even most of the time you lose with overpairs, it is very, very hard to make money at FR.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-26-2008 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I also noticed that in the small sample shown in the screenshot, you have lost $ with AJ, JJ and KK. This may mean that you have been running bad (hell, it definitely means that) but you also need to make sure (by reviewing hand histories and noticing the betting lines people are taking when they have your overpair beat, for example) that you are losing the minimum when your premium hands are beat.
First thank you very much I appreciate it! I'l try to do exactly what you have suggest me to, and see how I do...

Below are two hands with Kings, just a few minutes ago, could you please give them a look ? I'm really frustrated....

In this hand I put my opponent on AA, QQ or JJ, I check the turn to keep the pot small because I have a bad feeling, on the river I'm 70% sure I'm beat.

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3.90)
UTG+1 ($23.72)
MP1 ($20.49)
MP2 ($34.05)
MP3 ($15.52)
CO ($26.66)
Hero ($30.96)
SB ($16.84)
BB ($5.60)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 9 players) Hero is BTN K K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.60

Flop: 8 5 7 ($1.90, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.90, UTG+1 calls $1.90

Turn: J ($5.70, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: 2 ($5.70, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5.70, Hero calls $5.70

Final Pot: $16.25
UTG+1 shows: J J
Hero shows: K K

UTG+1 wins $16.25 ( won +$7.85 )
Hero lost -$8.40


In this one, I'm clueless, but I don't feel so good... Maybe I got outplayed with a middle pair or something I dunno...

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
9 players

Stacks:
UTG ($22.00)
Hero ($20.00)
MP1 ($31.77)
MP2 ($21.22)
MP3 ($19.90)
CO ($4.70)
BTN ($17.23)
SB ($20.10)
BB ($15.52)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 K K
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.80, 6 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: 4 Q 9 ($1.70, 2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $2.80, BB calls $1.80

Turn: A ($7.30, 2 players)
BB bets $3.65, Hero folds

Final Pot: $10.59

BB wins $10.59 ( won +$3.34 )
Hero lost -$3.60

Last edited by gabrigee; 08-26-2008 at 06:22 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-26-2008 , 11:28 PM
Well, you are not auto-stacking off with overpairs, so that's good.

Both of these hands are tough. I would be inclined to bet the turn in the first one (probably fold to a shove but it's close).

In the second one, I dunno; you always hate to see the ace come. I'd probably peel one, and maybe call again on a non-club river.

Your play in both of these hands is ok. I think a lot of people would say bet the turn in hand one and call in hand 2, but clearly you did not overplay those hands, which is what i thought you might be doing. If these hands are typical, then overplaying overpairs doesn't seem to be a leak you have.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-28-2008 , 08:56 AM
I know this is full ring, but could I post my 6max stats for analysis? I cant find a thread like this in the 6max forum.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-28-2008 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Pipkin
I know this is full ring, but could I post my 6max stats for analysis? I cant find a thread like this in the 6max forum.
or pm me, sure.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-28-2008 , 08:47 PM
hi

I have a 10k sample @ NL10, can I post my stats or it is a to small sample size? Should I what for like 25k hands?

Thanks in advice.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-28-2008 , 11:38 PM
post 'em, mention if u have been running hot or cold
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-29-2008 , 08:30 AM
Ok, here are my stats for NL5 and NL10 6max. I know that there are loads of different stats here, I don't expect anyone to look at them all.


Stats and graph for NL5.










Stats and graph for NL10.










Here are my position stats. These are both NL5 and NL10 combined, I don't know how to show them separately. (wow, looks like the BB is a HUGE leak for me!)





As you can see, at NL10 I play almost identical to when I'm playing NL5. But my winrate at NL5 is 9.5 PTBB/100 and NL10 is 3.1 PTBB/100. This is a pretty small sample, but it still worries me. I think I'm running bad. It really feels that I never ever get any action on my big hand and I get coolered A LOT. But I know this could all just be in my head.

Also, at both levels I'm losing at -7.5 PTBB/100 on hands that don't go to showdown. Not sure if this is normal or really bad?

Any analysis would be greatly appreciated.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-29-2008 , 06:43 PM
Maybe you were just running hot in NL5?


Is having a 6+ BB/100 in NL10 as easy and sustainable as everyone says it is?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-29-2008 , 08:23 PM
position stats


general stats


some background: I started from freerols like a year ago. freerols>mtt>sng>geting lazy. So I think it s time to get a new challange and started playing NL10 even if I m bankrolled to play NL50 because I m a donk at cash games and want to make like 50k hands before nl25. First 10k hands, please let me know what I m doing wrong
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-30-2008 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Pipkin
Ok, here are my stats for NL5 and NL10 6max. I know that there are loads of different stats here, I don't expect anyone to look at them all.
[B]


Here are my position stats. These are both NL5 and NL10 combined, I don't know how to show them separately. (wow, looks like the BB is a HUGE leak for me!)



As you can see, at NL10 I play almost identical to when I'm playing NL5. But my winrate at NL5 is 9.5 PTBB/100 and NL10 is 3.1 PTBB/100. This is a pretty small sample, but it still worries me. I think I'm running bad. It really feels that I never ever get any action on my big hand and I get coolered A LOT. But I know this could all just be in my head.

Also, at both levels I'm losing at -7.5 PTBB/100 on hands that don't go to showdown. Not sure if this is normal or really bad?
Sorry it took so long to get back to you, but this was maybe the toughest case I have seen yet, and I have had to spend a lot of time thinking about these stats.

I've been looking at your stats for two days off and on trying to figure out if there is a leak in your game that can explain the ugly 11,000 hands at NL $10. TBH, I didn't find one that I am sure about. Your stats look good for NL $10 6 max.

You may indeed just be running bad. But maybe you are folding a bit more on later streets because of the higher stakes? I think you might be doing this, because your won $ at showdown figures are pretty high. When this stat approaches 60%, in a FR player, I start to suspect that he is laying down some winning hands. I don't know what is standard for a TAg at 6 max, but most Tags in FR have a won $ at showdown of between 51 and 55% This is one of those weird stats where getting the win % as high as possible is not good, because, for instance, winning 100% at show down would mean you never took even the second nuts to showdown, never got all in with cards to come, etc. See? So if your win % is too high, i start thinking that you are habitually missing some opportunities to snap off bluffs, that you are folding a few winners, things like that.

If I were you, I would set my filters so that I was looking only at the last 11,000 hands at NL $10 where you have been breaking even/losing a bit. Then I would set my filters to look at only those hands where they went to showdown and I won. I would study these hands and try to get a sense for what I am willing to show down. An obvious leak at 6 max would be if you are never showing down middle or bottom pair in limped pots that are only 8 or 10 bb at showdown, for instance. If you don't find any of these hands, you are definitely folding the best hand too much.

After i did that, i would reset my filters for those same 11,000 hands for hands that I folded to a river bet. Again, we are looking for a pattern--what is the worst hand you are willing to call a river bet with? If you raised 99 and over cards flop, how often are you taking that to showdown? things like that.

You are going to have a hard time finding the spots where you leak. I think it is pretty subtle. I am not sure that doing what I have suggested will expose a leak, but it is the only avenue of exploration that suggests itself from your stats.

I don't think your BB loss rate is a huge leak. In FR, the best players are usually losing ~.17ptbb/hand. I would imagine that your figure of -0.15ptbb/hand is pretty similar, but I don't really know enough about 6 max stats to say for certain that it is not a leak. But if it is a leak i don't think it is a big one.

Your -7.5ptbb loss rate in non-showdown pots is primarily a function of your losses in the BB. To see what it is separately, filter out your non-blind hands, but i am pretty sure you are a winner in non-showdown pots from all other positions. This is why i think your leak(s) is going to be hard to find; because you are leaking not by being negative in any category of actions, necessarily, but by not winning as much as you could/were at NL $5.

Look around in your last 11,000 hands for instances of weak/tightness as I described above. If nothing jumps out at you, pm me, and we will set up an aim session where we run through a bunch of PT filters looking for the leaks.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-30-2008 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordDogs
position stats


general stats


some background: I started from freerols like a year ago. freerols>mtt>sng>geting lazy. So I think it s time to get a new challange and started playing NL10 even if I m bankrolled to play NL50 because I m a donk at cash games and want to make like 50k hands before nl25. First 10k hands, please let me know what I m doing wrong
Your stats look good. I don't see any obvious mistakes in terms of your positional play and aggression. It all looks like a solid and cohesive strategy.

Your sample size is small, but i am concerned by the fact that you are negative in 2 positions--UTG and one of the middle positions. The MP loss rate is probably variance, but you need to keep an eye on UTG. If it doesn't turn positive, you will have to figure out what you are doing wrong. The usual suspects are limping too much, inappropriate c-betting and overplaying overpairs. there are other possibilities, but I think these are most common.

You are folding the BB to a steal 92% of the time. I am amazed that your loss rate -0.18ptbb/hand in the BB is good, despite this high fold to steal %. This raises an interesting dilemma--I THINK you could further reduce your losses in the BB by defending a bit more, but I am very reluctant to mess with success. meh, your call, but I would lower my defense standards just a bit and see what happened.

You are not maximizing your positional advantage in LP. Your win rates OTB, and in the CO are pretty modest. Some combination of losing too much and not winning enough is obviously going on, but it is impossible to tell exactly what is going on without reviewing your hands. For instance, I always sabotage my button win rate by once or twice a week just donking off a huge amount of money post flop in a steal situation where the villain flopped the stone cold nuts or something and I decide to represent his hand and push him off the pot. But your leak could be c-betting too much, not enough, or in the wrong spots, checking behind on the river rather than v-betting--there are a ton of possibilities that you will have to check out.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2008 , 05:31 AM
stats for august full ring;



I changed my style from standard TAG (13/9/3.5) to more lagish...
what do you think? Could be this stye more profitable? It's too small sample to compare with my previous stats, but what do you think?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2008 , 03:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by erzor
stats for august full ring;



I changed my style from standard TAG (13/9/3.5) to more lagish...
what do you think? Could be this stye more profitable? It's too small sample to compare with my previous stats, but what do you think?
It's hard to say, you are right. The only level at which you have a half decent sample is .15/ .30

Over these 17,000 hands, really the only thing that jumps out at me is your early position play. You are negative in UTG and UTG+1. Your VPIP for these positions are 8 and 11%

I think, even for a lag, that being this loose this early can be difficult, especially at the 10 handed tables where you play.

At .15/ .30, your stats are roughly 19/13, ATS is 26. I don't think that is really out of line at all. I would like to see you get a bigger positional differential.

Maybe try cutting down your UTG play to 5% or so (5% is AQs, AK, AKs and 77-AA) and cutting out all of your routine limping (so you'd limp only at the really passive tables where there was a good chance an ep limp will see an unraised flop). The problem with limping from EP at these stakes and 10 handed is that you are going to often wind up with a multi-way raised pot, which will force you to play fit or fold with the small pocket pairs you are limping probably most of the time.

Play UTG+1 about the same, maybe limping a bit more, maybe raising 66 at passive tables. Play the remaining middle positions about the same as you are doing now, but cut back some on the cold calling of early position raises (fold KQ, KJ, AQ, stuff like that to most EP raises [always considering the villain's range]).

This would reduce the number of hands you are playing in early position and middle position, so you would want to open up more in late position. treat the hijack basically like the button, and get your button and cut off stealing ranges up above 30%

These changes should have no net effect on your VPIP of 19 or 20, but will increase your PFR somewhat. Basically we move about 5% of your hands from unfavorable EP limps or calls to LP raises where you have initiative and position. Cutting out a lot of the EP unprofitable open limps or calls should reduce your loss rate there, while increasing your LP win rate.

Maybe try this for 10,000 hands and see how you like it, whether it is working, whether it increases your winrate.

The other major leak is the small blind. This could be a result of one or two big losses in the small sample, so i am not really that concerned. But if you think it has been a pretty typical 10,000 hands, then maybe study your B play to see if you are leaking. Read the discussion upthread maybe twenty posts, look through your hands to see if your losses were the result of a few big hands or the absence of any good wins, stuff like that.
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