Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

08-05-2008 , 08:17 PM


Why isn't my graph as smooth (up and down) as others? Std variance?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-05-2008 , 10:21 PM
um that question is impossible to answer without knowing more
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-06-2008 , 04:54 PM
Hello there I'm pretty new here, also unexperienced in judging whether my PT stats are any good, so I would appreciate your feedback. I see lots of green but I think I play not aggressive enough.



My perception: I'm a tight nit (feel I have to) trying to navigate the minefields of 0.02-0.05 blinds at Doyle's Room, trapping with monsters and hardly bluffing. These blinds are the level I'm building my bankroll with from 0, until I get to $200. I'm now at $142, because I did well in navigating the big freeroll fields to get anything started. Usually I do better in tournaments anyway. My reads of what holding people have are usually good but I don't always have the courage to fire the shots when I have nothing.

Feel free to give me feedback. I hope to do the same for others once I get more familiar with interpreting the stats. Thanks.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-07-2008 , 07:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Split Suit
basic question...when we are looking at nonSD winnings...do we include the blinds in these?

without the blinds, im massively winning in nonSD (like, to the tune of 6-7pt/100 increase to my WR over 200K hands). but im not sure if this is the right thing to look at...
I think it's better to look at them separately. When people tell me they are losing in NSD pots, the first thing I tell them to do is to filter out the blind hands and look again, then I never hear from them again, lol.

Obviously the blinds are an analytically separate group of hands, simply because your contribution to the pot starts out involuntary.

So when I look at NSD pots, I look at 4 groups--the blinds, EP, MP and LP.

There's a recent thread on acceptable (win) rates from the blinds--it seemed that the solid players were at least down to around -0.20 in the bb and -0.09 or so in the sb.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-07-2008 , 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomrh3


Why isn't my graph as smooth (up and down) as others? Std variance?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mert420
um that question is impossible to answer without knowing more
Yours is the safe reply, but this graph looks somewhat like mine, so I am going to take a swing:

tomrh3, you are probably close to a break even player at the stakes depicted. For those of us with modest winrates, the graph will swing like crazy because the major determinant on whether we are winning is the quality of the cards we get and whether these hands hold up, and these factors are random; thus, the graph looks crazy random with, we hope, a general upward trend. When you see a graph that trends upward at a fairly consistent angle, it means, among other things, that the person who posted that graph is doing a good job of winning without just waiting for cards.

There are lots of other possible explanations, which is why mert said your question couldn't be answered, but this is, frankly the most likely, imo.

edit: your graph looks pretty good, except for the downswong. play more hands and take another look at 200,000 hands--you'll probably be reasonably satisfied.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 11:42 AM
Decided to post my stats and graph on my 27k hands I played at NL 25 on stars in my blog, thought I might aswell post them here aswell.






Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teddie
Decided to post my stats and graph on my 27k hands I played at NL 25 on stars in my blog, thought I might aswell post them here aswell.



I think your cbet% at 90 is too high, but you have 50% success with it so I guess that strategy is working OK for you.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 01:58 PM
I wouldnt argue with that. I'll take b/e stretches followed by massive heaters compared with massive heaters followed by massive downswings like it was before.

Last edited by Teddie; 08-08-2008 at 02:12 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInTheMoney
okay. ill explain something to you.
16/14 style is garbage. i'd immediatly tag you as a fish if i seen this.
this means you are over playing many hands.

what exactly do you think you are accomplishing by raising so much? do you think x/x style will just win if you play it?

no dude, it wont. you need to play well consistently, win consistenly, put your money in good consistently, etc. its clear you are not consistent.

you are raising to much and pushing out ranges that would have paid you if they could have seen a flop. thats why you arent making money consistently.

you need to trap opponents more often and let them value bet their weak hands for you. after all, a golden rule of poker is "an opponents is more likely to bet than call a bet"!

i.e. induce more bets!

You say 16/14 style is garbage but then say playing x/x style doesnt matter, it hows you play the hands, so which is it?

Barring from the blinds I dont I am pushing out too many hands. Maybe instead of folding them I can call more speculative hands from the CO or BTN.

I'll agree with the consitincy problem, I definitly put my money in bad far to often and valuetown myself on the river when I know I should fold, but I've been trying to work on that.


It's still an imporvement on what my NL.20 stats are!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInTheMoney
its much more about post flop play than preflop opening ranges.

however, opening too much pushes out ranges that you want to play against (you open almost every hand you play so this is clearly happening). for example, since u are opening AT and garbage like it, you are only getting called by AJ+. do you see? your opening 14% is only getting you called by hands that have you crushed and it pushes out hands that you have crushed.

and, post flop play is where most of the $$ is made. think about this, you are only putting in 4x preflop, and everything else that goes in the pot goes in post flop. this is where reading is important. i cant explain this, as its instinct to me, but i think if i could put it in words you need to look at:

1) position. what is my opponent holding in his position playing for a raise?
hat does my opponent think i have?

2) betting patterns. you need to recognize when players flop huge and how to fold. folding top pair to a pot size bet from the SB in a limped pot is not horrible. you only lose 1 BB compared to much more BBs lost seeing it to SD.

3) read your opponents.. i really cant explain this, its totally situational.

4) trap your opponents. if you know your opponent likes to fire, check to him and let him fire. let him fire again on the turn. let him bet his stack off. you need to use players tenencies against them.

5)checking the river is not horrible. i like to be aggressive on the flop and dturn and often check behind my opponents on the river unless i have a very strong hand.

6) be careful on dangerous boards.

if you master this you will be consistent.


My opening range is fine, I am never ever going to open limp, folding is better for me. I am also pretty tight with my raising range until MP2. I pretty much only raise all PP's, KQs+ then the odd low SC like JTs etc(but rarely from UTG).

Opening a hand like AT is fine even when you can get called by AJ and are dominated, the problem is I dont always let go when I should, but if a good player who can find the fold button then raising AT is the thing to do.

When he raises AT and gets called by AJ the chances of an A hitting are low since there's only 2 in the deck, so we need to avoid the 3 J's but even if we dont the most we should(lol for me) is the price of the raise an c-bet. But we make that money when more often then not the flop comes with an ace of jack and we c-bet and villan with AJ folds the better hand.

There are some hands I could limp on the btn multiway instead of raising though, and I'm gonna go through my LP hand and see which ones I am losing with.


I agree with your other points you mention though, and this definitly solid advice to winning at the micro's and I think I have most of them down well and I feel I am not to behind on most of them. I especially like your pint 4 though, and it's something I dont do enough.

It's pretty much **** like this and having just won 46% of hands at showndown that have me being more up and down then a hookers underwear.


Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $16.65
MP1: $29.30
MP2: $24.65
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $25.25
SB: $26.15
BB: $5.00
UTG: $29.00
UTG+1: $34.55

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.50

Flop: ($6.35) 2 A 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($9.35) J (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

River: ($12.85) 4 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

Spoiler:
Final Pot: $19.35
UTG+1 shows Ad Qs
UTG+1 wins $18.45
(Rake: $0.90)
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 04:32 PM
We'll definitly have to agree to disagree about opening ranges.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 04:49 PM
I'll accept that folding might be better, but I am never open limping.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 04:57 PM
my last 1500 hands (ss i know), i've been running 16.5 vpip, 9 pfr, 1.51 af, 37.35 afq. i've improved my win rate, but is this too passive/weak to sustain?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInTheMoney
okay. ill explain something to you.
16/14 style is garbage. i'd immediatly tag you as a fish if i seen this.
Wow, just wow.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInTheMoney
YOU ARE horrible. you have no idea what you are doing. id explit this fool overplaying weak hands like its my job.
I didn't say I play 16/14.

16/14 could be tagfish postflop but you can't know that immediatly just by looking at PF stats.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInTheMoney
YOU ARE horrible. you have no idea what you are doing. id explit this fool overplaying weak hands like its my job.
i'd be amazed if you make it to 50 posts. can't you explain your position without calling everyone an idiot or fool?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I think it's better to look at them separately. When people tell me they are losing in NSD pots, the first thing I tell them to do is to filter out the blind hands and look again, then I never hear from them again, lol.

Obviously the blinds are an analytically separate group of hands, simply because your contribution to the pot starts out involuntary.

So when I look at NSD pots, I look at 4 groups--the blinds, EP, MP and LP.

There's a recent thread on acceptable (win) rates from the blinds--it seemed that the solid players were at least down to around -0.20 in the bb and -0.09 or so in the sb.
ill do u 1 better. 5 GRAPHS!!!

TOTAL

TOTAL
.
.
.
BLINDS

BLINDS
.
.
.
EP

EP
.
.
.
MP

MP
.
.
.
LP

LP
.
.

thoughts?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 05:47 PM
split suit:

yeah.

You look ok in the blinds. you are losing a total of .34/orbit--that's a little bit higher than the other solid TAgs at $100, but in line with what I personally find to be satisfactory. I can achieve a decent winrate if everything else is going ok and I am losing .22 in the bb and .11 in the sb. My goal is to get these down to .19 and .07, which other solid regs have achieved in big samples. check the recent loss rates in the blinds thread--I think cmar started it.

You are leaking in EP and MP. On both of your graphs you posted early wins that you are now struggling to maintain.

Look at how you peaked in EP at about hand 3800, and how you leveled off in MP at hand 18,000. Something has changed since early in your career that has you not performing as well as you were when you first began. Mass multi-tabling, maybe?

If i were you, i would run a bunch of different EP and MP filters and try to pin down exactly what leaks I had there. I know that i win at a steady but modest rate in all positions other than the blinds. If I can do it, I know you can. But just from the graphs, I can't pin down what exactly you are doing sub-optimally in MP and EP.

LP looks really good, and you are now my new button hero.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mert420
Hi guys.

Background info: Started out 4 tabling 25NL at the start of June. Basically stopped playing poker in July (only 6k hands all month). I am now getting back into it, and have started 8 tabling.

[ ] successfully hide scr name
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-08-2008 , 09:52 PM
@ SplitSuit

This was done short-stacking, right?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-09-2008 , 01:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juukkk
@ SplitSuit

This was done short-stacking, right?
99% of that was fullstacking.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-09-2008 , 04:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juukkk
[ ] successfully hide scr name

Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-09-2008 , 04:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyPandy23
As many here im trying to open up my game and go from a nit to a TAG, I'll post my first graph of 54k hands, playing my usual set mining weak tight self, then the last 10k hands where i have been trying to open up.

I do know that 10k is nowhere near enough to get a grip on win rate etc. but was hoping that my stats would show if im heading in the right direction, I was going to post at 10k hands no matter what the result, i know that the fact im +$$ could just be due to running good etc. Im more interested in getting feed back on my over all play so far and areas i might want work on over the next 10k hands.










Just trying to work out how to post pics properly, best i can do!

Thanks for any help/advice.

Thanks for the input. Clicky much.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-09-2008 , 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyPandy23
Thanks for the input. Clicky much.
Due to the small sample you run awesome in the BB, the opposite can be said about your SB play. Also see the stay incline in your VPiP by position with the exception of 5th. Why is that so? - Small sample. Keep playing this style as it should be more profitable than the nit, however you might consider closing the gap between VPiP and PFR as this would mean that you will take the initiative more often and thus in the long run as a more aggresive player should end up bigger winner, I guess.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
08-09-2008 , 06:59 AM
offtopic:

@ mert420

Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote

      
m