[OFFICIAL] Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread
03-11-2009
, 06:44 PM
Hi I've been playing NL25 for 20K, NL25 Deep for 70K hands and lately 20K hands NL50 at FTP.
I'm now playing NL50 (recently moved up from NL25 deep) with a 2K bankroll at FTP, with rakeback and Ironman...
@ mpethybridge are you also playing NL50 at FTP ? I saw you at the tables...
Dude you're tight
I'm now playing NL50 (recently moved up from NL25 deep) with a 2K bankroll at FTP, with rakeback and Ironman...
@ mpethybridge are you also playing NL50 at FTP ? I saw you at the tables...
Dude you're tight
03-12-2009
, 02:02 PM
I would make your steal range from CO and Button a bit bigger, 30% is a tad low. Your playing 17/13 from the button. I think you can easily make that 25/22 and profit somewhat more. 3% 3bet is slightly low and is going to get abused when you move up. Stats look pretty good overall tho.
03-12-2009
, 02:29 PM
Your stats look pretty damn solid. I have a few nit picks, but you need to understand up front that I am recommending only very small adjustments to your game--I don't want you to make any really significant changes at all:
1. Big Blind: your loss rate is -0.21ptbb/hand. This is actually NOT a leak, but you have some room to improve here. I want you to defend a little more than you do right now. Pay a lot of attention to the stealer's ATS% and start defending with the top of his range. If the CO or button raises first in and has a high ATS%, say 30%, you can call or 3 bet, say, the top 1/2 of his range. You have to keep in mind that you will be OOP, which is a disadvantage, so you compensate by folding the bottom half of his range. If you do this, you will, on average, be calling or 3 betting with a better hand than the stealer has. If you learn how to not play strictly fit or fold in defending, you will be able to show a profit in these situations.
2. Small Blind: Again, your SB play is NOT a leak, but it is an obvious area where you have room for improvement. Make sure you are raising first in about 40% of the time. You don't need to defend your SB as aggressively as you do the BB, but you should still be willing to defend against LP apparent steals.
3. W$WSF: This is a medium size leak in post flop play. Yours is on the low side at 35%. I suspect a major reason for this is because you are not contending for orphan limped pots. In a 3 way pot, in either blind, fire a bet pretty much any time you flop a pair, a draw or you have two overs to the flop. Usually bet again on the turn, but evaluate the board texture and the villain ranges before you do. But when you flop any pair or draw or overs, you should ASSUME that you are going to lead the flop AND the turn, unless you have a compelling reason not to. If the pot is 4 way, drop the worst hands, but fire good draws and good pairs, again, planning to bet the turn a lot of the time, but not assuming that will be the case nearly as often as when the pot is 3 way.
You should also look for other situations where you are potentially folding the best hand, because 35% is too low a W$WSF% for a TAg, and it indicates a slight propensity to play fit or fold outside of the blinds.
4. CC%: This really relates to your W$WSF. Your cold calling percentages are on the high side in late position. In and of themselves, these CC%s are fine. But combined with a low W$WSF, there is a high probability that you are losing money in some of the cold calling spots where you could be playing them for a profit. So look through your DB; filter for the hands you cold call--look at your LP win rates with suited connectors, ragged aces and small pocket pairs, for example. Look at each category individually. They should all be profitable. If they are not, you may be leaking. If you are leaking, I suspect that it is a slight propensity, as I described above, to give up on the hand when you miss. Most of the time this is the correct play, but sometimes you should make a play at the pot. You need to be alert for these possibilities. So, for example, if UTG raises and MP2 calls, and you call OTB with JTs, and the flop comes down A92r and it is checked to you, you should normally bet. A 2/3 pot bet needs to work about 40% of the time you fire it to show a small profit, and you will probably get folds at least that often.
5. Fold to C-Bet: At 79%, your fold to c-bet % is a leak. In theory, your opponents can profitably c-bet you with any two cards every time you steal, and show a profit. When you will have position post flop, you should consider 4 betting or calling a bit more than you currently do. Bear in mind that when you call or 4 bet a 3 bet, your goal is not necessarily to make a profit, it is to mitigate your losses. Suppose we classify all of your calls of a 3 bet as "steal defense," and we exclude your best premium hands from that category (AK and QQ+). Our goal in our steal defense play is not to show a profit, it is to lose less than your average steal per hand. So if you steal on the CO and the button with 3bb, and you fold to a 3 bet, you take a 3bb/hand loss. Therefore, your "steal defense strategy" is profitable if, on average, you lose less than 3bb/hand when you defend your steal. Showing a profit in your "steal defense" plays is nice, but not necessary to having a successful strategy--all you really have to do here is successfully mitigate your losses.
This, however, is hard to do. You should ease into it. For instance, if you are currently folding AQo when you raise with it in LP and are 3 bet out of the blinds, you can start calling 3 bets from the loosest 3 bettors. If this goes well, add another couple of hands. Your goal is not to radically change your fold to 3 bet%, it is to get it down slightly, say, to 68% or so.
6. WTSD%: at 21%, you are a bit low. It looks like this is primarily a function of your tightness in the blinds, as your SD%s are really low in both of those positions. So I expect changing your blind play will improve this number.
7. W$SD. At 56%, you are a bit on the high side. I don't like to see a big gap between WTSD% and W$SD--it makes me think you are playing weak tight a bit too often. Again, I suspect that this is mostly a function of your blind play and maybe your cold calling hands. You should track this gap as you make the changes I have recommended, and look for it to close some--say, from 21/56 to 24/53.
I want to reiterate the important point I made at the beginning: Your stats are really solid as they are. Despite the fact that I pointed out a few things you should be doing differently, these are changes at the margins of your play. You should not make any radical changes. Just hazarding a wild guess here, you MIGHT play 3 or 4 hands per 100 differently by implementing the changes I have recommended. Don't go crazy, ease into these changes, experiment with them on some occasions, see how they work, and then slowly change them into things you routinely do.
Good stats, good luck at the tables, stay off Digger's blinds, lol.
1. Big Blind: your loss rate is -0.21ptbb/hand. This is actually NOT a leak, but you have some room to improve here. I want you to defend a little more than you do right now. Pay a lot of attention to the stealer's ATS% and start defending with the top of his range. If the CO or button raises first in and has a high ATS%, say 30%, you can call or 3 bet, say, the top 1/2 of his range. You have to keep in mind that you will be OOP, which is a disadvantage, so you compensate by folding the bottom half of his range. If you do this, you will, on average, be calling or 3 betting with a better hand than the stealer has. If you learn how to not play strictly fit or fold in defending, you will be able to show a profit in these situations.
2. Small Blind: Again, your SB play is NOT a leak, but it is an obvious area where you have room for improvement. Make sure you are raising first in about 40% of the time. You don't need to defend your SB as aggressively as you do the BB, but you should still be willing to defend against LP apparent steals.
3. W$WSF: This is a medium size leak in post flop play. Yours is on the low side at 35%. I suspect a major reason for this is because you are not contending for orphan limped pots. In a 3 way pot, in either blind, fire a bet pretty much any time you flop a pair, a draw or you have two overs to the flop. Usually bet again on the turn, but evaluate the board texture and the villain ranges before you do. But when you flop any pair or draw or overs, you should ASSUME that you are going to lead the flop AND the turn, unless you have a compelling reason not to. If the pot is 4 way, drop the worst hands, but fire good draws and good pairs, again, planning to bet the turn a lot of the time, but not assuming that will be the case nearly as often as when the pot is 3 way.
You should also look for other situations where you are potentially folding the best hand, because 35% is too low a W$WSF% for a TAg, and it indicates a slight propensity to play fit or fold outside of the blinds.
4. CC%: This really relates to your W$WSF. Your cold calling percentages are on the high side in late position. In and of themselves, these CC%s are fine. But combined with a low W$WSF, there is a high probability that you are losing money in some of the cold calling spots where you could be playing them for a profit. So look through your DB; filter for the hands you cold call--look at your LP win rates with suited connectors, ragged aces and small pocket pairs, for example. Look at each category individually. They should all be profitable. If they are not, you may be leaking. If you are leaking, I suspect that it is a slight propensity, as I described above, to give up on the hand when you miss. Most of the time this is the correct play, but sometimes you should make a play at the pot. You need to be alert for these possibilities. So, for example, if UTG raises and MP2 calls, and you call OTB with JTs, and the flop comes down A92r and it is checked to you, you should normally bet. A 2/3 pot bet needs to work about 40% of the time you fire it to show a small profit, and you will probably get folds at least that often.
5. Fold to C-Bet: At 79%, your fold to c-bet % is a leak. In theory, your opponents can profitably c-bet you with any two cards every time you steal, and show a profit. When you will have position post flop, you should consider 4 betting or calling a bit more than you currently do. Bear in mind that when you call or 4 bet a 3 bet, your goal is not necessarily to make a profit, it is to mitigate your losses. Suppose we classify all of your calls of a 3 bet as "steal defense," and we exclude your best premium hands from that category (AK and QQ+). Our goal in our steal defense play is not to show a profit, it is to lose less than your average steal per hand. So if you steal on the CO and the button with 3bb, and you fold to a 3 bet, you take a 3bb/hand loss. Therefore, your "steal defense strategy" is profitable if, on average, you lose less than 3bb/hand when you defend your steal. Showing a profit in your "steal defense" plays is nice, but not necessary to having a successful strategy--all you really have to do here is successfully mitigate your losses.
This, however, is hard to do. You should ease into it. For instance, if you are currently folding AQo when you raise with it in LP and are 3 bet out of the blinds, you can start calling 3 bets from the loosest 3 bettors. If this goes well, add another couple of hands. Your goal is not to radically change your fold to 3 bet%, it is to get it down slightly, say, to 68% or so.
6. WTSD%: at 21%, you are a bit low. It looks like this is primarily a function of your tightness in the blinds, as your SD%s are really low in both of those positions. So I expect changing your blind play will improve this number.
7. W$SD. At 56%, you are a bit on the high side. I don't like to see a big gap between WTSD% and W$SD--it makes me think you are playing weak tight a bit too often. Again, I suspect that this is mostly a function of your blind play and maybe your cold calling hands. You should track this gap as you make the changes I have recommended, and look for it to close some--say, from 21/56 to 24/53.
I want to reiterate the important point I made at the beginning: Your stats are really solid as they are. Despite the fact that I pointed out a few things you should be doing differently, these are changes at the margins of your play. You should not make any radical changes. Just hazarding a wild guess here, you MIGHT play 3 or 4 hands per 100 differently by implementing the changes I have recommended. Don't go crazy, ease into these changes, experiment with them on some occasions, see how they work, and then slowly change them into things you routinely do.
Good stats, good luck at the tables, stay off Digger's blinds, lol.
03-13-2009
, 06:41 PM
OK so I'm sorry guys, I must have posted protected images or something here I go again, with updated stats.
Should I change my style even if I am a winner ?
Should I move up (NL100) or only play only deep tables at NL50 ? (Given my $2300 BR)
Thank you in advance.
PS the red line in the pic above makes me puke...
Should I change my style even if I am a winner ?
Should I move up (NL100) or only play only deep tables at NL50 ? (Given my $2300 BR)
Thank you in advance.
PS the red line in the pic above makes me puke...
03-13-2009
, 10:22 PM
I just began following this thread a few days ago and I have to say that the nuggets of wisdom in this thread are almost unprecedented on 2+2.
Now, I haven't read every single post in this 90+ page thread, but didn't see this in the OP, or the many many pages that I have read here, so here it goes.
I have come back to play some micro fullring after time away playing SNGs and some PLO, and I only have ~ 3000 hands in, but I have one stat that seems absolutely out of whack that I can't figure out. Maybe it is just due to the small sample size, but it is worrying me that there is some massive fundamental flaw with what the heck I am doing
I am an 11/9 NL25 player, with WTSD%, W&WSF and Post Flop Agg all in line with the generally "OK" status per this thread, but my W$SD% is at 71%. My winrate, both regular and all-in EV adjusted is high.
What the heck is that about. Am I just missing out on a lot of value by not betting on the river? Or is this just a stat that will hopefully come back to the norm as I play more hands.
Now, I haven't read every single post in this 90+ page thread, but didn't see this in the OP, or the many many pages that I have read here, so here it goes.
I have come back to play some micro fullring after time away playing SNGs and some PLO, and I only have ~ 3000 hands in, but I have one stat that seems absolutely out of whack that I can't figure out. Maybe it is just due to the small sample size, but it is worrying me that there is some massive fundamental flaw with what the heck I am doing
I am an 11/9 NL25 player, with WTSD%, W&WSF and Post Flop Agg all in line with the generally "OK" status per this thread, but my W$SD% is at 71%. My winrate, both regular and all-in EV adjusted is high.
What the heck is that about. Am I just missing out on a lot of value by not betting on the river?
Or is this just a stat that will hopefully come back to the norm as I play more hands.
03-14-2009
, 02:52 AM
Quote:
I just began following this thread a few days ago and I have to say that the nuggets of wisdom in this thread are almost unprecedented on 2+2.
Now, I haven't read every single post in this 90+ page thread, but didn't see this in the OP, or the many many pages that I have read here, so here it goes.
I have come back to play some micro fullring after time away playing SNGs and some PLO, and I only have ~ 3000 hands in, but I have one stat that seems absolutely out of whack that I can't figure out. Maybe it is just due to the small sample size, but it is worrying me that there is some massive fundamental flaw with what the heck I am doing
I am an 11/9 NL25 player, with WTSD%, W&WSF and Post Flop Agg all in line with the generally "OK" status per this thread, but my W$SD% is at 71%. My winrate, both regular and all-in EV adjusted is high.
What the heck is that about. Am I just missing out on a lot of value by not betting on the river? Or is this just a stat that will hopefully come back to the norm as I play more hands.
Now, I haven't read every single post in this 90+ page thread, but didn't see this in the OP, or the many many pages that I have read here, so here it goes.
I have come back to play some micro fullring after time away playing SNGs and some PLO, and I only have ~ 3000 hands in, but I have one stat that seems absolutely out of whack that I can't figure out. Maybe it is just due to the small sample size, but it is worrying me that there is some massive fundamental flaw with what the heck I am doing
I am an 11/9 NL25 player, with WTSD%, W&WSF and Post Flop Agg all in line with the generally "OK" status per this thread, but my W$SD% is at 71%. My winrate, both regular and all-in EV adjusted is high.
What the heck is that about. Am I just missing out on a lot of value by not betting on the river?
Or is this just a stat that will hopefully come back to the norm as I play more hands.
03-14-2009
, 04:09 AM
Hi again,
First, I want to apologize to you formally. I never meant to be a jerk to you - you were only trying to help. Nor did I ever intend to troll this forum. I may have done so, to some degree, "post controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community." - and for that I apologize as well.
Regardless of my previous actions as a "troll", I am here to become a better poker player now. I know that you might not believe this. I am only asking for a chance to show it.
I've been working on my game here and there and taking some of your advice. Hopefully, my style is less exploitable now. I will begin with a summary since Jan 09 of graph, stats, and position. After that, I will conclude with March's results so far - which are the results since you gave me advice.
Jan 1st, 2009 - March 13th, 2009
Graph
Stats
Position
March 1st, 2009 - March 13th, 2009
Graph
Stats
Position
Thanks for your advice. And again, I apologize for being a jerk.
First, I want to apologize to you formally. I never meant to be a jerk to you - you were only trying to help. Nor did I ever intend to troll this forum. I may have done so, to some degree, "post controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community." - and for that I apologize as well.
Regardless of my previous actions as a "troll", I am here to become a better poker player now. I know that you might not believe this. I am only asking for a chance to show it.
I've been working on my game here and there and taking some of your advice. Hopefully, my style is less exploitable now. I will begin with a summary since Jan 09 of graph, stats, and position. After that, I will conclude with March's results so far - which are the results since you gave me advice.
Jan 1st, 2009 - March 13th, 2009
Graph
Stats
Position
March 1st, 2009 - March 13th, 2009
Graph
Stats
Position
Thanks for your advice. And again, I apologize for being a jerk.
03-14-2009
, 09:17 AM
Ya know, I sure do love FTP during happy hour. The micros are a fun place to be
03-14-2009
, 09:20 AM
03-14-2009
, 12:06 PM
Hello,
I'm a devout 2+2 reader and pokercast listener. I have been playing poker since November 2008, but only "seriously" since early this year. I made the mistake of getting my first free $50 on FTP, playing at... 10NL which resulted in quick losses. Thank God for bonuses and rakeback! Right now, I am 3/4-tabling 2NL still @FTP.
I know people will most likely LOL at the sample size but you'll see from my winnings why I want to find out what my (most likely huge) leaks are. However, even with that sample size, some stats are converged. I am not concerned about my WR at all right now.
Here are my overall stats:
Comments:
- my VPIP/PFR are not those of a regular TAg, but they not LAg either; I do feel comfortable playing those hands, even though I know I need to tighten up from EP
- at 3, I think my aggression on the low side, but when should I be more aggressive?
- WTSD & W$SD%: from what I read they seem to be OK, maybe on the low side? Would that mean I need to hold on more to my better hands? Whenever I call down, I find myself facing 2 pairs & trips/sets most often...
- cbet%: seems ok, with a good success rate; my turn cbet seems way too high... so why is my aggression low then? Or is it just not converged?
- vs 3 bet fold: is that too low? Or is it just not converged?
- my steal % seems OK from what I read here, correct?
My positional stats:
Comments:
- I am positionally aware, but maybe a bit loose from EP?
- my blind play is horrendous; the only thing I do to defend is raise ATC from SB; I am clueless on what to do post-flop after trying what the now famous post 489 suggests; I think I need to read up on blind defense
- I'm actually losing money with pocket pairs from CO&BTN; now granted, that's 77 hands, but still, shouldn't my money come from there?
My graph, all positions:
My graph, without the blinds:
Comments:
- it seems my lines go up without the blinds, which means that even if my play is not prefect, I might be on the right track?
- if I fix my blind play, would I stop losing so much money so fast?
- I noticed that whenever I try to stick around with LPa minraising my cbet, I lose; is that a trend anyone else noticed?
Thank you for your time.
I'm a devout 2+2 reader and pokercast listener. I have been playing poker since November 2008, but only "seriously" since early this year. I made the mistake of getting my first free $50 on FTP, playing at... 10NL which resulted in quick losses. Thank God for bonuses and rakeback! Right now, I am 3/4-tabling 2NL still @FTP.
I know people will most likely LOL at the sample size but you'll see from my winnings why I want to find out what my (most likely huge) leaks are. However, even with that sample size, some stats are converged. I am not concerned about my WR at all right now.
Here are my overall stats:
Comments:
- my VPIP/PFR are not those of a regular TAg, but they not LAg either; I do feel comfortable playing those hands, even though I know I need to tighten up from EP
- at 3, I think my aggression on the low side, but when should I be more aggressive?
- WTSD & W$SD%: from what I read they seem to be OK, maybe on the low side? Would that mean I need to hold on more to my better hands? Whenever I call down, I find myself facing 2 pairs & trips/sets most often...
- cbet%: seems ok, with a good success rate; my turn cbet seems way too high... so why is my aggression low then? Or is it just not converged?
- vs 3 bet fold: is that too low? Or is it just not converged?
- my steal % seems OK from what I read here, correct?
My positional stats:
Comments:
- I am positionally aware, but maybe a bit loose from EP?
- my blind play is horrendous; the only thing I do to defend is raise ATC from SB; I am clueless on what to do post-flop after trying what the now famous post 489 suggests; I think I need to read up on blind defense
- I'm actually losing money with pocket pairs from CO&BTN; now granted, that's 77 hands, but still, shouldn't my money come from there?
My graph, all positions:
My graph, without the blinds:
Comments:
- it seems my lines go up without the blinds, which means that even if my play is not prefect, I might be on the right track?
- if I fix my blind play, would I stop losing so much money so fast?
- I noticed that whenever I try to stick around with LPa minraising my cbet, I lose; is that a trend anyone else noticed?
Thank you for your time.
03-14-2009
, 04:18 PM
03-14-2009
, 04:36 PM
03-14-2009
, 04:45 PM
03-14-2009
, 04:57 PM
Quote:
Apology accepted.
Your new stats look ok so far, but the poster above who said 9k is too small a sample, is, of course, correct.
I have a devil of a time playing against people who play 16/7--it'as really hard to tell whether they are set mining or not. It's only a difference in 3% from your previous style, but it makes a big difference to me in how well I can read them. Just my personal experience.
Your button cold calling % is super high--when you have a bigger sample, you should look around in your DB and see if you are profitable overall cold calling that wide, and whether there are unprofitable hands you can drop from your button calling range.
good luck
Your new stats look ok so far, but the poster above who said 9k is too small a sample, is, of course, correct.
I have a devil of a time playing against people who play 16/7--it'as really hard to tell whether they are set mining or not. It's only a difference in 3% from your previous style, but it makes a big difference to me in how well I can read them. Just my personal experience.
Your button cold calling % is super high--when you have a bigger sample, you should look around in your DB and see if you are profitable overall cold calling that wide, and whether there are unprofitable hands you can drop from your button calling range.
good luck
Cold Calling:
Hero Raise PF:
Facing Cbet:
VPIP:
Open Limp:
Call Raise:
Last edited by Trapz; 03-14-2009 at 05:05 PM.
03-15-2009
, 12:40 PM
I am getting ready for shots at 25NL and decided i could use a stat analysis. Mainly focused on the 10NL stats but that is such a small sample size decided i would include all of them.(missing about 5k hands of 5NL cause the files got corrupted)
Since i Cold Call a lot here is my CC graph(I toned it down a little in 10NL, 2% CC in 10NL):
Since i Cold Call a lot here is my CC graph(I toned it down a little in 10NL, 2% CC in 10NL):
Last edited by Limperschmit; 03-15-2009 at 01:00 PM.
03-15-2009
, 06:36 PM
I had an exchange around post 1270 to post 1300 with a poster named Miracle Grow. You should look it over, paying particular attention to the discussion about preflop passivity. Your preflop stats are very similar to his.
But I'll tell you the same thing I told him--you are beating your level pretty well, even if we just look at your EV adjusted winnings. The only reason you should consider changing your game is in preparation for moving up to the levels where set mining is much less profitable.
But I'll tell you the same thing I told him--you are beating your level pretty well, even if we just look at your EV adjusted winnings. The only reason you should consider changing your game is in preparation for moving up to the levels where set mining is much less profitable.
03-15-2009
, 06:38 PM
Quote:
I am getting ready for shots at 25NL and decided i could use a stat analysis. Mainly focused on the 10NL stats but that is such a small sample size decided i would include all of them.(missing about 5k hands of 5NL cause the files got corrupted)
Since i Cold Call a lot here is my CC graph(I toned it down a little in 10NL, 2% CC in 10NL):
Since i Cold Call a lot here is my CC graph(I toned it down a little in 10NL, 2% CC in 10NL):
03-16-2009
, 09:56 PM
this is 95% 24 tabling lately ive been amping up the aggression and trying to win without hitting sets
http://img6.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=graphs.jpg
http://img6.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=graphs.jpg
03-17-2009
, 11:36 AM
Hi guys,
I've been reading the posts in this forum for a few weeks now as I've started taking my poker a bit more seriously. Just wanted to say that since reading this thread, a couple of Pokey's older ones and the Concepts of the Week, my understanding of the game has grown dramatically, and I'm starting to regularly win sessions at the $10 limit.
I've only played ~1.5k hands so far, so it's clearly early days yet, but my stats are nicely in line with mpethybridge's suggestions. I look forward to posting my stats for a checkup in another 18.5k or so!
Thanks again to everyone who's posted with advice, and especially to you mpeth
I've been reading the posts in this forum for a few weeks now as I've started taking my poker a bit more seriously. Just wanted to say that since reading this thread, a couple of Pokey's older ones and the Concepts of the Week, my understanding of the game has grown dramatically, and I'm starting to regularly win sessions at the $10 limit.
I've only played ~1.5k hands so far, so it's clearly early days yet, but my stats are nicely in line with mpethybridge's suggestions. I look forward to posting my stats for a checkup in another 18.5k or so!
Thanks again to everyone who's posted with advice, and especially to you mpeth