That's my friend's hand, he just moved to 50NL.
pre, flop and turn are standard I think
What about the river? Can villain play a set like this? Is he ever bluffing here?



PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (CO): 183.28 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.98, PFR: 12.08, 3Bet Preflop: 5.10, Hands: 484)
SB: 112.44 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 17.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 177)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.75, PFR: 11.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.34, Hands: 349)
UTG: 138.82 BB (VPIP: 16.56, PFR: 13.26, 3Bet Preflop: 5.29, Hands: 2,021)
UTG+1: 40 BB (VPIP: 15.08, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 128)
MP: 112.18 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 19.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 76)
MP+1: 159.6 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 9
UTG raises to 3 BB, UTG+1 calls 3 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (13.5 BB, 4 players) T 8 5
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+1 checks, Hero checks
Turn: (13.5 BB, 4 players) A
UTG bets 6.44 BB, UTG+1 calls 6.44 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.44 BB
River: (32.82 BB, 3 players) J
UTG bets 25.06 BB, fold, Hero raises to 61 BB, UTG raises to 129.38 BB and is all-in,

He`s never bluffing but he could have some value hands worse than ours

Sucks but it looks to me like you're beat here. UTG stats are very TAG'ish stats and TAG villain is betting 2 streets strong , get's raised on a drawy board then shoves over top your raise?

I think I'd still call only because I did raise turn big.

I just don't see him doing this with just a set. Unless he thinks your friend is a total donkey

Or maybe he thinks you caught 2 pair AJ/A10 and isn't putting you on a straight.

Don't know about anyone else but I'm totally going to bet IP on flop after it's checked to me to take pot down. Betting your draw IP is always a good thing imo especially when its checked to you.

Villain has to know you could have a straight...3 different straights on board...sadly your straight is 3rd nuts.

99% of the time, this would not be a bluff unless TAG'ish villain's wife just came on and misclicked 'all in' button

It's kinda weird, because if he has worse value hands, which is likely, he kinda has to hate our river raise because we don't really have worse value hands than say AA/JJ. I mean 4 way on that flop we're betting all our sets, we're squeezing AA/JJ pre, so what do we raise river with?

Granted he could be a patata clicking btns and thinking his AA/JJ is good here, he only has 4 combos that are better, assuming he only opens KQs from UTG which is a fair assumption imo.

Yeah and to go along with this, villain most likely would have bet AA / JJ on flop after raising pre...

Could easily be a stab at pot on turn with broadway draw holding KQ and then getting there on river. (Even trying to rep the A)

I'd give him less KQ....with so many to act behind, if he's not firing the flop I doubt he fires the turn as a tagfish, so while he can have better, I'd probably downweight it a tiny bit. He can also absolutely have all of the sets, although I think I'd also downweight AA/JJ a little bit and JJ that doesn't bet the flop probably isn't betting this turn either.

With some weighting due to the flop/turn line and sizing, I'd probably give him 2 or 3 KQ combos (not always suited but usually), one chop maybe, 9 set combos out of a possibly 15, 2 two pair value combos (AJ/AT one of each), 1 spaz with either AK or some random air hand. I think that's a pretty reasonable range he can show up with, possibly might have some more worst value depending on villain. Also remember what our line looks like. We close to never checkback a set on this flop 4 way, and we're unlikely to call gutshots with KQ on the turn much, so on the river when we raise we have some bluffs with the few missed draws we overcall the turn (67 mostly), some pairs turned in to bluffs although god why would we vs villains river sizing(QJ/J9), some middle two pairs that raise for thin value vs big aces (JT/J8), worse Ax two pairs (A8/A5 mostly) that don't bet flop or raise turn for some reason, and very few straights (1 KQ maybe and 2-3 J9s since we might not always peel the turn).

Either way, as gross as it is, I think we have to call. We've only got to be winning about 20% to break even and I think we win a bit more often than that.

Eh, looks like KQ but can be sets enough of the time that we have to call.

Why raise the river if we are not fist-pumping when he shoves over us? You need to consider what you will do if you get re-raised BEFORE you raise on the river. If you do not know what to do or you will fold to a shove, then just flat call there.

Definitely taking a stab OTF with my OESD and taking the initiative.

Your statement isn't logical. There is nothing wrong with happily raising the river for value but not happily calling off when villain jams river. I think he CAN be jamming worse for value, but it's pretty freaking close. Flat calling with the second nuts to the river bet is terrible, again, because he can and will have worse value that really can't and won't want to fold.

Because of this right here, we don't have a large number of straights on the river with the way the hand/betting played out, and also because we aren't always peeling the turn to try and get there.