The villain is 9/6/1 rock over 55 hands with 50% fold to cbet

Im a bit stumped on the turn. Villain is one of those mass multitabling SSer nits so i am assuming he has solid values. Should i be c/f on turn? I dont see myself getting any value.


Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $5.08
BB: $2.03
UTG: $4.38
UTG+1: $4.91
MP: $2.07
CO: $3.88
BTN: $6.57

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with A 2
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BB calls $0.11

Flop: ($0.32) A 7 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.72) 7 (2 players)
Hero ???

OPEN SPOILER FOR REST OF HAND

Yeah I pretty much c/f turn...he's not calling another street with a lower pp and there are so many Ax in his range that you're gonna value cut yourself against

agreed, c/f turn.

c/f turn c/f river

check/call flop, check/call Turn.

We dont win much in these situations. He either has an Ace or he dosnt so if we cbet they fold a ton here so I like to give them chance to at least try and bluff. If they dont bet the flop Im min betting turn and river.

C/c the flop seems awful here. Without further reads what makes us think he's ever bluffing the flop? After his action pre, what range do you put him on when he bets out verses our missed cbet?

After thinking about the hand a bit more I actually feel it might be a c/f otf. There's so much Ax in his range and we can get value from his pp's on later streets. His range is so narrow that we're either way behind or we're giving him a free draw to a two outer.

If we knew a bit more about villain maybe we could think about cbetting and barreling him off stronger Ax

A lot of nits will bet when checked to so his range if he bets the flop will be 22-JJ(presuming he 3bets better and calls those) Obviously he has Ax but probably has stuff like KQ/KJ/QJ/QT/JT etc(tons more combos we beat than Ax) in his range and he will bet that stuff some of the time.

Some nits will check behind with that stuff which im fine with hence the min betting and trying to make them look stupid. Imo i think we get more value by check/call 2 streets than we do betting 2 streets and I think this could be easily proved if we had a ton of hands on the player and knew more about him but remember it is still only 55 hands so he could easily be card dead and he has probably at most only faced a couple of cbets so the fold to cbet stat is irrelevant. for those reasons alone check/folding this flop is very bad.

Bet/fold turn (to extract value from his pot-controlled underpairs) and bet/fold river when you collect some higher hand equity.