Originally Posted by bull699
C/c the flop seems awful here. Without further reads what makes us think he's ever bluffing the flop? After his action pre, what range do you put him on when he bets out verses our missed cbet?
After thinking about the hand a bit more I actually feel it might be a c/f otf. There's so much Ax in his range and we can get value from his pp's on later streets. His range is so narrow that we're either way behind or we're giving him a free draw to a two outer.
If we knew a bit more about villain maybe we could think about cbetting and barreling him off stronger Ax
A lot of nits will bet when checked to so his range if he bets the flop will be 22-JJ(presuming he 3bets better and calls those) Obviously he has Ax but probably has stuff like KQ/KJ/QJ/QT/JT etc(tons more combos we beat than Ax) in his range and he will bet that stuff some of the time.
Some nits will check behind with that stuff which im fine with hence the min betting and trying to make them look stupid. Imo i think we get more value by check/call 2 streets than we do betting 2 streets and I think this could be easily proved if we had a ton of hands on the player and knew more about him but remember it is still only 55 hands so he could easily be card dead and he has probably at most only faced a couple of cbets so the fold to cbet stat is irrelevant. for those reasons alone check/folding this flop is very bad.