I don't think he's ever bluffing this river but he can obv play TT and 9x this way so always a call on river for me.

99 is pretty much the only value hand he has that would checkraise turn and given the number of bluffs he can have I think we'd be losing a stack if we bet the turn, still not a reason for checking though I don't think.

Nice post.


Choosing the flop sizing of 50% induce bluffs and we got wide called.

Your equity argument i like very much. For me its difficult to evaluate the pro of getting bluffed of a wide Range and the contra of let him realize 100% of his equity.

Ok, bet call is absolutely +EV. But we loose all his bluffs. hands like 87s with a lot of Backdoorequity, there a lot of combos.

And i really think we loose 88- a lot of the time. 22 WTSD means he almost always is scared.

I think it falls with the question how many combos he calls on the flop which are not A-High and bet the river as a bluff.

I think with the WTSD of 22% he is not the typical floating OOP guy, but bvb on this board he maybe will.

So i assume he calls us with 87s, JTs, QJs, QTs, KJs, KQs, KTs --> and often just 3/4 suited combos.. So he has just 21 combos on the river. The question can we check vs. them to induce value. I think yes, because the always bet, or check maybe if rivered Showdownvalue.

And whats the risk on checking? Loosing Value? Not so much, i think.

Very nice comments on 2+2.. I think i learned a lot from your comments the last week.. Thanks. Lets go on:

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 2570480
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $103.08 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 958364
BTN: $76.01 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0,7, Hands: 21
SB: $33.09 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 29
BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 2,2, Hands: 7347
UTG: $50.75 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3,1, Hands: 2186
UTG+1: $50.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2,3, Hands: 10488
MP1: $50.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3,0, Hands: 98681
MP2: $19.78 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 29, 3B: 12, AF: 2,1, Hands: 110

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) T 5 9 (2 players)

I didnt was sure on 3betting here pre, scared about the shove..

What you do on the flop here?

(KJs hand)

I think I'd 3bet preflop, we get jammed on by worse just about often enough I think. Not too sure I like flatting all that much this short and we can get called by players behind and get dominated - although they should probably be squeezing with AJ+, but likely aren't cos they look passive. I also hate folding though so on balance 3bet/call off a jam seems the best line imo.

Post flop as played, I'm guessing he's cbetting big here with most of his range? Meh, probably fold.

Assuming he cbets, you call. Gutshot, overs and a bdfd. Pre is fine vs this guy.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 2570480
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $103.08 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 958364
BTN: $76.01 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0,7, Hands: 21
SB: $33.09 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 29
BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 2,2, Hands: 7347
UTG: $50.75 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3,1, Hands: 2186
UTG+1: $50.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2,3, Hands: 10488
MP1: $50.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3,0, Hands: 98681
MP2: $19.78 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 29, 3B: 12, AF: 2,1, Hands: 110

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) T 5 9 (2 players)
MP2 bets $2.00, Hero calls $2

Yeah, he cbetted here 60% pot.. I called.. which Turns you call/which Turns you Raise? His WTSD is 23.

Villain's odd stack size makes things a bit awkward.

I think I would B/F around $4-4.50. Hopefully get some think value and the chances of him raising worse are slim.

I thought his WTSD is not big enougt for 3streets value with Top Pair.. There are some busted draws and his River Aggreesion Frequency is high. So i decided to check.

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2570584
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: $28.09 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 1,7, Hands: 1314
MP2: $26.61 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 18, 3B: 12, AF: 3,5, Hands: 100
CO: $25.70 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2,2, Hands: 3057
BTN: $69.51 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2,2, Hands: 11470
Hero (SB): $25.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 958364
BB: $25.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 12,0, Hands: 293
UTG: $17.90 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 4, 3B: 2, AF: 1,7, Hands: 137
UTG+1: $25.72 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 1,0, Hands: 76
UTG+2: $25.42 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 1,3, Hands: 999

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K A
UTG calls $0.25, 6 folds, Hero raises to $1.15, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.55) A J 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.51, UTG calls $1.51

Turn: ($5.57) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG calls $3.25

River: ($12.07) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $11.99, Hero calls $11.99

Final Pot: $36.05
Hero shows K A
UTG shows A 9
Hero wins $34.43
(Rake: $1.62)

..and he turned A9 in a bluff, so i am happy with my line.

i call pre and flop. turn i call normal sized bets when Ad,Kx,Jx,Qx,8x hit. i ship any other diamond.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 2570839
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $103.08 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 959860
BTN: $76.01 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0,7, Hands: 21
SB: $33.09 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 29
BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 2,1, Hands: 7601
UTG: $50.75 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3,1, Hands: 2186
UTG+1: $50.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2,3, Hands: 10488
MP1: $50.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3,0, Hands: 98860
MP2: $19.78 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 29, 3B: 12, AF: 2,1, Hands: 110

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) T 5 9 (2 players)
MP2 bets $2.00, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) J (2 players)
MP2 bets $3.70, Hero raises to $99.58, MP2 calls $12.58 all in

River: ($40.31) A (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $40.31
Hero shows K J
MP2 shows 8 T
Hero wins $19.25
Hero wins $19.25
(Rake: $1.81)

I prefer shoving all diamonds, Kx, Jx... I think so we avoid really sick river decisions and get often a call by a worse hands and insured with our Equity.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2570933
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $50.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3,1, Hands: 1447
BTN: $61.44 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2,0, Hands: 1929
SB: $37.76 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3,5, Hands: 15564
Hero (BB): $83.59 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 2,9, Hands: 961258
UTG: $50.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 2,4, Hands: 3219
UTG+1: $138.35 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 4,4, Hands: 3218
UTG+2: $50.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 4,6, Hands: 504
MP1: $115.64 - VPIP: 73, PFR: 29, 3B: 12, AF: 1,7, Hands: 152
MP2: $60.73 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 4,9, Hands: 6959

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A K
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 5 4 A (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $4.00, Hero calls $4, MP1 calls $4

Turn: ($18.25) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $10.25

interesting hand here..

pre flop standard.. flop i check because the fish donks 60%, but he didn´t.. On the turn i decided to bet, because i was scared of loosing money if the regular checks behind now..

Opinions?

Not sure I'd put much faith in the river aggression stat. You only have 137 hands so he won't have got to the river very often. His bet size on the river would make me very nervous about calling. You are of course correct about the draws though.

What you do if the Fish or the Reg raises your Turn donk?

I fold to the Fish Raise snap... He is not that aggro that he raises a One Pair hand here. And if the reg raises here its the same. I am perceived uncaped, i could play every Set like that, so his bluff frequency is very low. So fold & fold.

i dont know if preflop is standard..AK preflop underplayed+multiway usualy=reverse implied odds..postflop i like the donk for the reason youu mentioned+its very hard for someone to raise here without holding a 3

would've already donklead the flop!

besides that he is very aggro, his vpip is 75 and AF 1.7.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/t...threadid=25155

i absolutely disagree. How often a player put voluntary money in the pot (VPIP) nothing says about his postflop aggression. His factor here is 1,7 (Raise+Bets/Call), his freuencies here 40, 36, 51.. So he is not very aggressive. If you would use this statistic, you will know it.

There a Players that play 70-10 with AG 0,8 & Freuq.: 20, 20, 20
and Players with 70-10 with AG 3,2 % Frequ.: 50, 60, 50

So we have to make a difference here to optimize our EV.

lol, try to read the post i posted here.
he sees flops with over 71% of the hands! u can stove it

That's not aggro, that's loose. (Loose passive for this specific villain.)

another good week for the crusher..

Well played!
U work aswell? Do u have ambitions to turn pro?

Trust me, this guy thought he was making a value bet; he is a 31/4 ...
He does not think like: 'well, there is a pot bet left and he might have AK/AQ(AT), so I should turn my hand into a bluff so he might fold'.

This doesn't even make sense in the first place, because you will probably not even fold getting 2-1 with AK/AQ and maybe even when you decided to raise with AT. Better hands than top pair will never fold in this spot and your AK/AQ range is just a small part of your total range. So saying 'he turned A9 in a bluff' is just not hitting it. He just cannot get you to fold out better hands in this spot imo. I think you just got lucky getting this all in on the river

Just rethink this process

Where's the variance?? Didn't saw it last week neither ... Good work man! Looks really good so far.

How many tables do you play?