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Old 02-16-2008, 07:15 PM   #1
ddagt
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Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Introduction:

I always have trouble knowing what to do when min-raised. There are many hands of this type posted in this forum by others as well. Not all, but a lot of replies tell the poster to fold to the min-raise, probably because the replier assumes the poster lost the hand, which is why (s)he is posting it in the first place. But it cannot be correct to always fold to a min-raise, as others have pointed out. How often are you really behind?

To help figure this out, I wrote a program that parsed all the hand histories that I have, which are all from 25NL and 50NL. Any flop or turn min-raises that went to showdown were analyzed. I'm not sure how many hands that covers (would love to know where to find that in pokertracker), but I do have history on 33,000+ players. The sample size should be suffice.


Data:

Total minraises: 12277
Total showdowns: 6475
Showdowns that min-raiser saw: 6425

What this is showing is that 53% of hands that had a flop or turn min-raise went to showdown. This is important for the min-raiser to know; half of the time you min-raise, you will have to showdown.

But look at the showdowns that the min-raiser saw - 99%! This is important for the min-raisee (is that a word?). If someone min-raises you, if you play back, they will go to the bitter end with you.

Straight flushes: 8
Four of a kinds: 61
Full houses: 565
Flushes: 351
Straights: 524
Three of a kinds: 839
Two pairs: 1838
One pairs: 1595
High cards: 165

These are the hands that the min-raiser had at showdown. One thing to keep in mind is that these are not the hands that the min-raiser had at the time of the actual min-raise (flop or turn). But it still shows some interesting things.

76% of the min-raisers had 2-pair or better hand.
97% had 1 pair or better.

The min-raiser obviously improved a lot of times after they did the min-raise, but not enough to invalidate the data (enhancements could be made to the program to figure out the hand at time of min-raise but hey, this is my hobby not my job).

For instance, for the 3-of-a-kind hands, ~80% of the time the min-raise was done with 3-of-a-kind made. The other ~20% were with overpairs or to a lesser extent top-pairs that improved.

Also, even if the min-raiser only had an overpair that turned into 2-pair, it still beats your top pair hand that turned into a smaller 2-pair.


RapidEvolution's recommendations:

Probably the best response to a post on min-raised hands that I've seen was from RapidEvolution (I'm not trying to pick on you, trust me). I'll list his/her recommendations here and give my thoughts on them. They are typically dead on (RapidEvolutions, not mine).

a) Take notes on players (especially regs) and get an idea of what a flop/turn raise means from that specific player. Some players love to coldcall hands like JJ/QQ out of the blinds and then attack postflop. If they start getting aggro, there's a larger chance that you're ahead with KK/AA.

Definetely take notes on the regs tendencies. The data shows that maybe ~20% of min-raises are with an overpair or top pair, so some people do min-raise without 2-pair or higher.

b) Consider the flop and villains AF. On wet flops, there are many more hands that villain can be raising you with. ... If it's a dry flop and you're getting action from a tight player, consider folding.

c) The c/c flop, c/r turn line is almost always a set. Most draws prefer to get money in on the flop where they have the most pot equity.


I totally agree that line is almost always a set. I think RapidEvolution meant draws want to get money in when they have the most FOLD equity, not pot equity, but I could be wrong. At any rate, I initially thought the villain would do a bigger raise than just a min-raise with a draw to increase their fold equity.

However, looking through the data, for the flush hands, ~40% of the min-raises were done with a flush draw (a lot of times with a pair as well) and not a made flush. This was a lot higher than I expected.

d) Be aware of the effective stack size and be less willing to get all-in with one pair hands as the effective stacks get bigger. Obv, you're not gonna fold AA against a shortstacker ever, but if you're 150BB deep you may want to consider alternate lines such as checking behind on the flop if the boards dry.

Spot on, you have to keep stack sizes in mind always. I have a hard time checking behind on flop with an overpair since my continuation-bet percentage is so high, but thats maybe a story for a different day.


Summary:

Take notes: Always important, but top pair would be easy to get away from if villain only min-raises with sets and you have no other draws. (Now I just gotta find the time to enter all this data into my player notes).

Not best hand: It's probably safe to say that when min-raised, your top pair hand is behind 75% of the time, or will be by the river without any draws. Maybe a little less than that for your overpair.

No Fold Equity: 99% of the time the min-raiser will go on to see a showdown, so don't try to bluff him/her out unless you have a good read/notes.

Great Implied Odds: This does give you GREAT implied odds if you have a good draw.

Let me know if you can think of some other data that would be interesting, I will try to fulfill any reasonable requests.
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:18 PM   #2
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

OP I WANT TO HAVE SEX WITH YOU!!!

THIS POST IS GOLD, THANK YOU SIR!

FIRST
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:31 PM   #3
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

This is a fantastic post. Fantastic. NH, sir.
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:35 PM   #4
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

triple nh sir
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:42 PM   #5
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

quads nh...46 posts and this much insight, just proves new people to the forum arent automatically not good.

CMAR put this in FAQ

Last edited by xxrod17xx; 02-16-2008 at 07:43 PM. Reason: FAQ part
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:44 PM   #6
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

nh, interesting information.
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Old 02-16-2008, 07:57 PM   #7
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Post of the month.
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:07 PM   #8
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

ddgat, i was looking for some strong info about the minraise and you came in the right moment!
If you make your post N║ 43 with such quality, i cant wait for your poh bah!!

If we face a minraiser on the flop, when we hold a drawing or second best hand we can check call for pot control?
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:21 PM   #9
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Great post! Based on this it would be safe to say the following:

1) When facing a minraise - don't push back without a strong hand
2) If villian is generally going to showdown (as this post suggests) and you both have reasonable stack sizes, the implied odds should be there to call with many types of draws to exploit villain's mistake of betting too small.

I would be interested to see some data (if possible) on what % of the time the min-raiser bet the next street when called?
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:25 PM   #10
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Interesting analysis. I wonder if a minraise-bluff would start to become effective against the right players?
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:37 PM   #11
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Damn this is good.
You realise how hot this? I dont know whats going to be in pokertraker 3 but stuff like this should.

Do you mind if I ask what programming language you used for this? Was it AHK?

Hehe... can you check to see how often KK comes out on top when all the money goes in Preflop?

Also, if your having trouble getting your notes in on time check out this http://www.overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/SmartNotes
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:49 PM   #12
ddagt
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Thank you all for your compliments, glad it was helpful!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Le0 View Post
ddgat, i was looking for some strong info about the minraise and you came in the right moment!
If you make your post N║ 43 with such quality, i cant wait for your poh bah!!

If we face a minraiser on the flop, when we hold a drawing or second best hand we can check call for pot control?
It depends on the stack sizes. If you have a good draw to go with it, and the stack sizes are big enough, then I think the only thing that makes sense is to just call since you have no fold equity. Or of course if most of your money is in already then you have to go all in. But I don't think raising gets you anything.

But if you know you have second best hand (always the tricky part, thats where reads/notes come in) and no draw, fold.
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Old 02-16-2008, 08:56 PM   #13
ddagt
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoot59 View Post
I would be interested to see some data (if possible) on what % of the time the min-raiser bet the next street when called?
I agree, that would be interesting, probably pretty high. I'll try to find some time tomorrow to put that in.
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Old 02-16-2008, 09:05 PM   #14
ddagt
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sounded Simple View Post
I dont know whats going to be in pokertraker 3 but stuff like this should.
Thanks. I actually sent a note to PT support to see if it existed today, they said those kind of stats would be in the next version, not sure when that comes out...

Quote:
Do you mind if I ask what programming language you used for this? Was it AHK?
Not at all, I used Perl, pretty much just a lot of pattern matching and some math, program is ~300 lines long I think.

Quote:
Hehe... can you check to see how often KK comes out on top when all the money goes in Preflop?
Don't hold your breath I'll look into it

Quote:
Also, if your having trouble getting your notes in on time check out this http://www.overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/SmartNotes
Thanks, I'll take a look!
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Old 02-16-2008, 09:10 PM   #15
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Quote:
Hehe... can you check to see how often KK comes out on top when all the money goes in Preflop?
Don't hold your breath I'll look into it
If you do end up doing it then it would have to be for effective stacks of 90bb+
If its a whole new program then dont worry - its not important, just curiosity.
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Old 02-16-2008, 09:19 PM   #16
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

ss i assume the overcards.com script is ahk?

edit: just realized I hijacked the thread, forgive me ill pm
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Old 02-16-2008, 09:40 PM   #17
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

One interesting thing to look at is to do this analysis for each street. Maybe turn minraises are big hands more often than flop minraises, etc.
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Old 02-16-2008, 11:15 PM   #18
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Thank you for this, very good information.
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Old 02-16-2008, 11:22 PM   #19
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCW12 View Post
One interesting thing to look at is to do this analysis for each street. Maybe turn minraises are big hands more often than flop minraises, etc.
Given the SPR on the turn that would make a turn min raise almost 99,9999999999% a STRONG hand.
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Old 02-17-2008, 02:27 AM   #20
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

This is a very neat post! Thanks for taking the time to analyze and summarize the data. The only one thing I'd to clarify is that after a min raise, the min-raiser does not actually go to SD 99% of the time. Although SD will clearly happen a lot based on the data, remember that

-You can 3B or fire later and force a non-SD against the min raiser. This will not credit the "SD" counts but will add a tally on the MR incident count
-The 47% non-SD measure does not say who folded following the MR
-The 99% of MR going to SD and its 1% not to SD is generated by multiway pots
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Old 02-17-2008, 10:54 AM   #21
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Nice post !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sounded Simple View Post
I dont know whats going to be in pokertraker 3 but stuff like this should.
No it shouldn┤t.
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Old 02-17-2008, 02:12 PM   #22
ddagt
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Originally Posted by theben View Post
This is a very neat post! Thanks for taking the time to analyze and summarize the data. The only one thing I'd to clarify is that after a min raise, the min-raiser does not actually go to SD 99% of the time. Although SD will clearly happen a lot based on the data, remember that

-You can 3B or fire later and force a non-SD against the min raiser. This will not credit the "SD" counts but will add a tally on the MR incident count
-The 47% non-SD measure does not say who folded following the MR
-The 99% of MR going to SD and its 1% not to SD is generated by multiway pots
Great observation! I actually thought of that on the way to local casino last night, wondering if anyone else would catch it. I updated the program this morning to account for that. Results show that ~14% of the time the flop or turn min-raiser will fold before showdown, so the showdown number is 86% instead of 99% (so not NO fold equity, but maybe little instead).

Also, someone had wondered what percentage of time the min-raiser will bet on next street. I updated the program, 75% of the time the flop min-raiser will bet, raise, or call on later streets.

Hopefully I can edit the original post to put in these updates. Thanks for interest!
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Old 02-17-2008, 02:53 PM   #23
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBad View Post
No it shouldn┤t.
why not?
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Old 02-17-2008, 04:43 PM   #24
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Thx for your great post ddagt

Anyone expecting players applying minraise bluffs following this post?.
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Old 02-17-2008, 06:02 PM   #25
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Re: Minraise data analysis - micro stakes (long)

Great post! Thank you for sharing this with us.
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