Quote:
Originally Posted by theben
This is a very neat post! Thanks for taking the time to analyze and summarize the data. The only one thing I'd to clarify is that after a min raise, the min-raiser does not actually go to SD 99% of the time. Although SD will clearly happen a lot based on the data, remember that
-You can 3B or fire later and force a non-SD against the min raiser. This will not credit the "SD" counts but will add a tally on the MR incident count
-The 47% non-SD measure does not say who folded following the MR
-The 99% of MR going to SD and its 1% not to SD is generated by multiway pots
Great observation! I actually thought of that on the way to local casino last night, wondering if anyone else would catch it. I updated the program this morning to account for that. Results show that ~14% of the time the flop or turn min-raiser will fold before showdown, so the showdown number is 86% instead of 99% (so not NO fold equity, but maybe little instead).
Also, someone had wondered what percentage of time the min-raiser will bet on next street. I updated the program, 75% of the time the flop min-raiser will bet, raise, or call on later streets.
Hopefully I can edit the original post to put in these updates. Thanks for interest!