Villain is 16/13. Fv3b is 59 and I toyed with the idea of 3 betting pre but thought flatting was slightly better.

Aggression % - 42/33/23
Cebt %'s - 68/61/38

W$SD 57%

He is a significant winner (at least in my sample) being up 9 BI in 3k hands, but is a career 25NL'er.

I nearly folded turn but given his high turn cbet I felt I had to call. Fold there?

OTR, we obviously improve but his sizing looks like fat value and its not like I cant ever have the BD flush myself here. I feel like KQ (for him) is probably the bottom of his value betting range, especially because AK probably works better as a chk/call given the draws missed. Then I figured that someone with those Afrq% and W$SD% stats isnt the kind of guy to be running big bluffs.

Seriously folded river :O?

Good fold, imo. I'd be interested to know your sample of his river AFq % tho.

As an aside, I agree hero has BD flush here some small % but, fwiw, I think villain has it much more often.

I can see the argument for folding but I think it's bad.

3-betting pre is fine if his fold to 3b is < 55 and doesn't 4-bet the majority of the time he continues.

lolwat, you have top 2 and the only things that beat you are sets or backdoor flush. you only need 29.5% equity here.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

19 trials (Exhaustive)

board: K563Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KdQd	42.11%	6	4
KQ,QQ+,55,66,AsJs	57.89%	9	4

And that's a pretty tight range

As an aside, would it be a good spot for villain to barrel with Asx? River seems like it could be a good spot, but I'm unsure about the Turn.

If he has AsJs then he certainly has AsKs, AsQs as well.

That said, the reason I have enough equity in your example is because you have included AA, but I don't think he uses that sizing with AA?

This guy also easily has a lot of Kx of spades hands.

Sure, although AsQs is going to be pretty hard (Qs on the river) ;-)

Why wouldn't he use this sizing with AA? This is exactly how I would play AA

Yes, forgot about those:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

23 trials (Exhaustive)

board: K563Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KdQd	34.78%	6	4
KQ,QQ+,55,66,AsJs,AsKs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s	65.22%	13	4

Still a call and I haven't included 1 bluff in his range

Spot where I don't mind explo folding even though it "should be a call". He shows up with sets and bdf too often enough to make this call profitable IME. We do beat one value combo indeed, AA. But other than that, we're bluffcatching.

What are you hoping to get paid by on this river? AK, which would probably 3 bet pre anyways?

id 3bet preflop. as played river is meh, like 2+8 said its most likely breakeven, id call but is cause im a station and cant fold 2 pairs

people I play against don't fold Kx here so AA is a clear valuebet.
I think is is true for most microstakes players, no?

majority of regs @ 25nl would fold KJ/KT here 100% on the river. AA would be a very thin value bet here, hero plays sets this way too.

Excellent fold sir !

Its a very hard fold however I think there is a good chance he checks a king at least once and more than likely cbets his BD flushes, straights & sets.

You're only beating a bluff but its such a hard fold.

Think folding is ok with flopped K not being a spade.

Honestly it's crazy to think you're getting 3 streets of value from ''most microstakes players'' with AK/AA on this runout with literally the nutworst river in the deck. Granted it's not a surprise someone who thinks along the lines of ''lolwat top 2'' thinks like this.

I mean we're near the top of our range assuming we raise turn some % of the time with sets, and therefore I really don't want to fold but at the same time it's nitring, he's not capped and has every combo that beats us including a ton of Axss, Kxss and 78s. Which makes me want to fold, as gross as it sounds.

You can't really say this without explaining yourself.

Also OP, you have 3k hands, surely you can provide us with a read of some kind.

Not saying I think like that, I'm saying some % of people who play microstakes think like that.

you are assuming everybody plays perfect which (especially at these stakes) never happens.

In order to make this call he doesn't even need bluffs in his range (see stove above) just a couple of combo's of overestimated valuebets (AA) in a CO v BTN situation

if it's this close I'm definitely calling

I don't think you even know what perfectly played looks like and it's definitely not what I am assuming. Honestly not sure how that is your conclusion after what I replied.

I am however assuming a reg who is a winning reg according to hero realizes this is the nut worst river in the deck for his AA/AK. Assuming he's just going to valuebet AA on this river when hardly anything worse calls(I'd say never, but cant really say never in poker)+ the fact that we do have a couple of backdoor flushes + sets, is just crazy.

When AA valuebets the river it's hoping to get called by AK which is obv discounted both due to 3b pre + villain having AA or KJ/KT and those hands may fold turn(look at hero's OP) and definitely fold river to 3 barrels.

So yeah, as gross as it sounds and without any reads I think this is a fold on that specific river.

we can only declare a winner to this argument in 1 way. Ill get the ruler.

Fold on river - you are at the bottom of the range a decent winning player (as you describe villain) will bet 3 streets with

If you had 555 id suspect you wouldn't post this....

The only hands villain conceivably has here that you beat/split with are AA and KQ - anything else you'd expect to play this way you are behind.

Edit: I also haven't seen 1 equity post yet with 87s in i don't think.....

Miffed no decent reg @ 25nl is betting AA on the river. Not even Hurtnycde would value bet AA and according to him hes the GOAT.

would you still call with 555 or just hate life and fold?