So Mpethy asks me to do another COTW. Since I like talking poker and also I figure there is a non-zero chance that someday I will need a lawyer contact in Vegas I agree. The subject is “The Turn”, sure no problem I think “blah blah blah value, blah blah blah plan, blah blah blah ranges…..” I can do that.
Except I can’t.
The problem is that the turn is the hardest street to play, by far. Pre-flop and flop are pretty easy small ball shenanigans that really if you put any work into at all you can’t really do very wrong. The river well that closes the action so you are looking at one perhaps two decision points, again hard to **** it up (and in case you do **** it up I kindly wrote you all a guide on how not to earlier in COTW).
The thing is you can’t “Play the turn” on it’s own, more so than any other street it’s intertwined with it’s neighboring streets with such delicacy that if I tried to write a comprehensive post on “The Turn” I’d actually end up with an entire e-book.
So what I’m going to do is give you some pocket book advice that hopefully you can take straight to the table.
(1) Get your HUD straight
If you don’t have these stats in your HUD or quickly accessible in a pop-up that you can read in 2 seconds then add them now
- Turn Cbet%
- Turn FCbet%
- Turn CR%
- Bet vs missed flop Cbet%
I will explain later.
(2) What’s the plan?
Like I said above, you don’t play the turn you play a hand that you have planned. So your turn action is decided on the flop!!!!!
Examples:
- I’m going to vbet any card but a scare card, then probably thin vbet the river.
- I’m barreling any card, if I get scary board by the river and he checks he gets the third
- I’m vbetting if I get there, taking a free one if I don’t and not bluffing this guy on any river.
- I’m checking back to induce/maximize river value
I think that this is the biggest problem that a lot of uNL players have, it takes time and practice to get thinking three streets ahead.
Of course there are a bajillion flop/turn lines you can take but here's one a lot of you need to cut down on
- Whoohoo 2 cards and a flop C-Bet time, Ruh roh didn't think Id see a turn might as well c/f.
Of course there are times you simply do need to take this line but I love playing against people who use it as a default.
(3) Hand Reading
Turn and river hand reading is 100x more complex than pre-flop or flop hand reading so the players who know opponents ranges will simply have an unassailable advantage.
Recently I have been using a new technique to get a grip on hand ranges;
- Open HEM/PT3 and filter for
> Single Raised Pots
> Final pot >180bb (shorter stacks are easy to play anyway)
> You are OOP (because this is tougher)
> You cbet and are called HU
> You saw a showdown
Then add these filters in turn:
> You got called
> You got raised
For both “Got Called” and “Got Raised” Manually or in excel note the
> Player Type
> Flop SPR
> Board / Board Type
> Positions
> Villains hand
Your hand or who won is not relevant, now look at the info you have on what player types are doing on the turn with what holdings.
You may want to get more specific with the filters once you see patterns emerge.
I won’t pre-empt results, if anyone wants to know what I have found then post yours here or PM me and I will tell you if they correspond to what I have found
In other words…. Do some work you lazy bums.
*Don't forget that you will need to do this analysis as you move up and/or games change over time.
(4) Baluga Theorem
Is it true? You tell me, back to HEM/PT3 you go.
LOL coaching is easy.
(5) Ok I have done all that hard work, throw me a bone with something insightful.
Like so much of poker this is actually very simple when you think about it, but I tell you what I think the big problem you all have is –
(1) You are afraid of getting bluffed
(2) You are afraid of getting stacked by a better hand even when you are way ahead of a range
These fears stem from a lack of confidence in hand reading and sometimes a lack of confidence in your long term win rate.
So how do we get over these fears? Get better at hand reading, back to HEM you go.
(6) Playing as the aggressor
Now that you know roughly what you are up against it’s time to play perfectly (well perfectly against their ranges anyhow).
What should I consider when deciding to barrel as a bluff?
Equity – think of equity as a “discount” on a bluff, even A2 with a single over card can snatch a 60bb pot away from a passive QQ or combo draw. 22 is less a less likely candidate.
Opponent – Pop up that Fold to Turn Cbet%, don’t make me explain that part. Obviously tight players with a high FTCB% are ideal candidates but don’t rule out barreling a loose passive who calls a lot pre and on the flop. It sounds silly to bluff players who like to call but if they are peeling with Ace high and 22 u/i then ½ pot should work the required 33% of the time so long as you get the right turn card. If that sounds silly check out EP3 of "Razors Edge" over a DeucesCracked, math doesn't lie.
Turn Card – Against semi-thinking opponents rep scare cards with turn barrels, tight players especially whimper facing heat. Some thinking opponents may be aware of this so don’t be afraid to fire the “ya rly” river bet after barreling the scare turn.
What should I consider when deciding to barrel for value?
If you think you have the best hand the default is to bet, you pretty much can’t go far wrong. You should consider that sometimes checking will have a higher expectation, some possibilities include
- If you figure that the villain is a floater go for the c/c or c/r. Note well though, unless you are 100% rock solid in this read don’t waste value going for pre-emptive countermeasures against a problem that usually doesn’t even exist
- If you have a lock hand against a maniac player with <PSB left, like AK on 723K is fine to check (or gay bet) OOP to give them the rope and you can fire the river if they don’t bite. If the opponent is possibly on a draw *do not* take this line as they can play near perfect against you, just jam.
- As a value check. If we cbet QQ on K72, turn is a 2 we check back the turn repping air and bet any river and get called by any pair. I don’t know why but people can’t fold these spots vs me.
"I’m pretty sure I’m ahead but I’m afraid of a turn CR can I check for pot control?"
I can't put it any better than AlexB182 so I won't try.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...inally-361988/
(7) Playing the defense.
The majority of your opponents have major turn leaks, even if they seem “solid” or even aggressive almost no-one puts in any real effort into balancing their turn lines so you want to exploit this.
Step 1 – Get a handle on their range, especially if it’s an EP range that’s wide (its up for debate but I think anything above 7-8% in EP is exploitable).
Step 2 – Check their flop Cbet%, the higher this is then the more likely you will be to get to the turn with the intention of making a move
Step 3 – Check their Turn Cbet%, if it’s low (<30%) then credit should be given to a turn barrel, however if this player checks its your signal to take it away (watch out for players who like to CR turns, you might want to peel a free one or consider a delayed float).
Raising a turn double barrel signals massive strength, if you get called you are probably up against an over pair at the least. The river action is down to you, my guess is that with 100bb stacks trying to get people off overpairs won't work.
However if you think you can or want to try I genuinely don't discourage the occasional attempt. Just be sure to have the following
- A big enough stack that you can pot or overbet the river
- A villain with a wide enough range on the turn
- A thinking but tight villain (not just tight)
- A range of hands that matches or balances your bluff.
- Super scary board that smacks your range but not theirs
- Good tilt control when they snap it off
(8) Size matters
A common problem is that people just look at the pot and go with what feels right. This can lead to lost value, most of your money will be made valuetowning bad players so aim for stacks in if possible. However if you mess up your turn bet size you will often be faced with the option of either over betting the river (which is OK if all else fails) or the sickening prospect of seeing 30bb left in a fishes stack when he has a hand that clearly you could have stacked.
So as a very rough guide to bet sizing here is my technique to set up a PSB on the river.
Bet size = (Remaining Effective Stacks – Existing Pot)/3
Example:
Pot is 30bb, villain has 90bb behind and we cover.
A 20bb bet leaves the villain with 70bb and a 70bb river pot.
Of course this is only a rule of thumb, once you find this figure you can make some adjustments or of the stacks too deep simply consider just going for as much value as you can.
This technique can also show you when its possible to put people (usually stations) on the installment plan with a small turn bet size that they “have to call” only to find themselves crying “pot odds” again on the river.
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