I. Introduction
When examining our range postflop, we can categorize our hand based on strength. Our strongest holdings, value hands, are easy to play. Do anything you can to win the most money and never fold. Our worst hands are equally easy. Fold most of the time, occasionally bluff. As we move into the middle of our range, things start to become a little more difficult. These are the threads we’re used to seeing in strategy threads: should I fold my TPTK, can I call his turn bet, or should I bet/fold or check/call this river?
We can think of the middle of our range then as
Showdown Value Hands (SDV). With this range of holdings, there is a decent enough chance that our hand will be best when turned face up, yet we will be end up value towning ourselves by betting or raising. Our goal then is to get to showdown as cheap as possible and try to win with the best hand. In this COTW we will examine some examples of SDV hands, followed by some caveats and warnings.
II. Examples
A. Standard SDV hand
Villain is a 19/0 over 26 hands. Hero steals Q9o to play a pot IP vs a fish.
SB ($100.50)
BB ($91.65)
UTG ($98.50)
MP1 ($107.70)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($114.65)
Hero (Button) ($101)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9
, Q
4 folds,
Hero bets $3,
1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) J
, A
, 3
(2 players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) 9
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($14.50) 3
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $14.50
| Rake: $0.70
Results:
Hero had 9
, Q
(two pair, nines and threes).
BB had Q
, K
(one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $13.80
After we open, the board is very dry and scary so we make a standard continuation bet, and get flatted by the villain. We turn a pair, which gives us a small amount of SDV since we now beat smaller pocket pairs, and hands like KT or KQ that our loose passive villain flatted on the flop. Clearly value betting our pair of nines at this point would be suicide- our opponent calls his aces and good jacks and folds everything worse. Instead, we check back our pair and flip the best hand face up at showdown.
B. Hero has a strong hand
Sometimes we make a hand that looks deceptively strong. In these spots, our instinct is to bet because of our OMG strong hand. Yet in reality, our villain has very little worse that can call.
This hand was the very first hand of my session, so no HUD yet. I did not have the villain marked (I mark all regs and fish I see) which does tell me a small amount, but I’m still mostly in the dark.
UTG ($102.45)
Button ($51.80)
SB ($111.40)
Hero (BB) ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K
, 3
2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks
Flop: ($2) 7
, K
, K
(2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2
Turn: ($6) 4
(2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6
River: ($18) 6
(2 players)
SB bets $18, Hero calls $18
Total pot: $54
| Rake: $2
Results:
SB had Q
, Q
(two pair, Kings and Queens).
Hero had K
, 3
(three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $52
In this hand, hero flops trip kings blind versus blind, which may as well be the nuts. Yet we are faced with three pot sized bets from our villain after he limps pre. Villains bets are so polarizing in this spot. He either has the case king, or he has a complete spaz. Any king other than K2 is better than our hand, so we just have to call down with our super strong hand. If we raise, villain just folds his bluffs and calls with his better kings. It’s very possible that this hand plays differently vs. a villain we have reads or stats on, but I think against an unknown calling down here is OK.
C. Ace high as SDV
Sometimes hands as weak as ace or king high can have showdown value. It’s important get a good idea of villains range, to determine if getting to showdown or trying to bluff is better.
The villain in the following hand is a 15/11 reg. He 3 bets his big blind versus steal 6% of the time.
MP3 ($63.55)
CO ($103.50)
Hero (Button) ($102.70)
SB ($72.30)
BB ($121.25)
UTG ($114.55)
UTG+1 ($110.45)
MP1 ($106)
MP2 ($98.90)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K
, A
6 folds,
Hero bets $3,
1 fold,
BB raises to $11, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($22.50) 8
, 4
, J
(2 players)
BB bets $14.50, Hero calls $14.50
Turn: ($51.50) 4
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($51.50) 2
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $51.50
| Rake: $2.55
Results:
Hero had K
, A
(one pair, fours).
BB had 7
, 6
(one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $48.95
Villains range for 3bing is something like medium and high pocket pairs, AJ+, and some smaller Ax and Kx bluffs. His cbet on the flop is standard, so we call to take away the pot on later streets. When villain checks the turn to us though, I had to catch myself just in time from bluffing him out of the pot. His turn check means he either has a thinner value hand, or has air he is planning on check folding. We beat a significant portion of his range by checking and can never get value from betting. Checking back the turn and river lets us win by beating the Ax and Kx in his range, and avoids us value towning ourselves vs his stronger holdings.
III. Warnings
It is important to realize that not every middle of the road hand equals showdown value. Sometimes our hand appears to have SDV yet in reality beats little to no part of our opponents range. Other times, the opposite is true. We miss thin value when we have a holding that beats enough of our opponents range.
A. Assuming You Have SDV
Villain is a 16/11 crushing reg.
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) -
UTG ($171.35)
UTG+1 ($40.85)
MP1 ($229.95)
Hero (MP2) ($102.70)
CO ($106.70)
Button ($143.50)
SB ($147.85)
BB ($178)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2
, 2
2 folds,
MP1 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50,
4 folds
Flop: ($8.50) 10
, 9
, 8
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($8.50) 9
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($8.50) K
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $8.50
| Rake: $0.40
Results:
MP1 had 6
, 6
(two pair, nines and sixes).
Hero had 2
, 2
(two pair, nines and twos).
Outcome: MP1 won $8.10
We flat pre to set mine and play a pot in position. When our opponent checks to us, he almost never has a piece of that board, so we can put him on something like 22-66, and AK. Any other part of his preflop range has a pair or draw that would continuation bet. We continue to check back our small PP with SDV to avoid value towning ourselves on this wet board. Yet by the river, we beat none of the range that we previously defined. Our hand looks like it has SDV, being a pair on a hand that has checked through three streets, but beats nothing in our opponents range. At this point, bluffing the river is foolish, because it won’t get any respect. Yet if we had realized our hand strength earlier in the hand we could have planned better.
B. Missing Thin Value
If there is one fallacy with SDV worth remembering, it is to ALWAYS remember to look for thin value. We don’t want to get into bad habits of checking back the best hand and constantly lose value that could be helping our WR.
Our villain is an agro reg at FR, who usually runs around 20/18. We are playing 3H with a fish for about 100 hands now, and he has been running somewhere around 30/25 with a ridiculous 30% 3b.
SB ($104.50)
BB ($65.65)
Hero (Button) ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J
, K
Hero bets $3,
SB raises to $11,
1 fold, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($23) A
, K
, 7
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($23) 5
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($23) 10
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $23
| Rake: $1
Results:
Hero had J
, K
(one pair, Kings).
SB had 8
, 8
(one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won $22
I think defending with KJo in position vs my opponents wide three betting range is going to be fine in this spot. His range is going to be something like Ax, Kx, all PPs, any two broadways, etc. We flop second pair, and our opponent never bets on such an obvious board for him to bet on. In my opinion, he is thinking the same thing as me- SDV. By the time it gets to the river, I think it is clear that we have the best hand. We should be looking to bet and collect some value from the hands that can call (Kx). Instead we foolishly check back the best hand and miss value. FWIW, looking at this hand now, it doesn’t even seem to thin on the river. Pretty fat imo.
tl;dr Cliff Notes
-Showdown value is the part of our range that is likely the best hand yet can’t get value
-Check or call with hands that have a good chance of being the best at showdown
-Don’t bet or raise when only better can call and worse will fold.
-Sometimes ace high has showdown value. Other times pairs or better won’t.
-Avoiding missing value bets with hands just because they have SDV
Feel free to post examples and discuss those posted.
Two Plus Two
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