Tl,dr warning. If you’re too lazy to read the whole thing at-least skim over the bolded lines and read the parts that apply to you. Please note I’m just getting the subject started for debate, if you have something to add, or you disagree then please post it.
What is fishy thinking, and why do they think this way?
Humans are lazy by nature. They also have a thing called an “ego” that causes them to alter their logic to something that does not make sense. People refuse to admit that they are outmatched/outclassed or just out of their league. This is why the game is not going to die, people do not want to admit that they are a bad player, or humble themselves and ask someone for help.
Feel player vs Math player…
The endless debate… are you a “feel” player or are you a “math” player. The feel players feel that math is over rated and idiotic and the game is all about experience in being able to put players on hands and reading tells and body language to know when they are “weak” or “strong”.
Math players feel that every situation should be calculated via numbers, what are the odds I’m being laid, what are my % to win the hand etc. “Is this +ev”.
The logic here is flawed on both sides. Why would you be one and not the other? Why would you choose to ignore the math that goes behind it? Why would you choose to ignore variables that would alter your equation? Doing the math is only good if you’re doing it right and have the right numbers. You can alter variables all day long to make a bad decision look good. Here’s a couple common misconceptions one from each argument.
- "There are times when the numbers just go out the window"
No really there isn’t. There are times when you can use your “feel” to alter numbers and remove hands from their range, even if you have a tell on someone that is 100% accurate, you can seldom put them on 1 hand, usually you can only put them on a “range” of hands. The more accurate you define the range the more accurate your numbers are.
- "I’m Getting 3-1 so I have to call".
I see this all the time, even from players who don’t know the math. “I can call because I have pot odds”, fish love this concept because they love to see flops so anything that allows them to call a bet or chase a draw they can site “pot odds” or “implied odds” regardless if the math is right or not. There are also times when you are getting a great price, but in reality you are not getting the correct odds to call. It’s important to think about the type of hands they could be betting for “value” and what type of hands they could show up with this point in the hand and are now bluffing. Could they have missed a draw, would they turn a lower pair into a bluff? Do they overplay their hands, will they bet top pair on a 3 flush/ 4 straight board on the river?
“His strategy is just the wrong way to play”
This seems to come up a lot IMO with players that feel their play style is far superior that of everyone else. He plays looser than me he’s a maniac, he’s tighter than me so he’s a nit. The beauty of poker is there are multiple styles that can win, before you completely write off a guys strategy stop and think about how you would exploit such a player. Not only does this help you develop and find additional tools to add to your toolbox from an unlikely source, but it helps you understand the mindset of people that are going to be sitting at your table and you have a faster way to exploit their thought process.
“He’s a winning player he must be right.”
This is dangerous. You should never just take some take someone’s strategy advices and run with it, stop and think about WHY they feel this is the best play/horrible play. 2+2 is a great example of this, there are a lot of winning players that will post helpful advice, however this advice may not apply directly to your game, the player may have looked at the hand and made a mistake based on misreading of the hand (after all he doesn’t have any money on the table here, doesn’t have any feel of the villains and FWIW you may not have provided all of the relevant information for the hand and his advice might have been skewed based on what you provided).
This is also not factoring in players that perhaps while they have a winning style, have major fundamental gaps in their knowledge of the game. What works for some may not work for others.
"I’m so good I don’t need to work at my game."
This should go without saying, but the game of poker changes over time. You either need to adapt or you will get passed by. If players such as Phil Ivey learn something new every time they play, what makes you better than him?
"I’m just on a downswing everything will bounce back on its own"
While it is true that variance is part of the game but your being naïve if you think you’re still playing your best poker when your graph shoots down. Look through your hands, did you really lose the minimum on your downswing? Did you tilt off a buyin or two? Did you perhaps get frustrated because you were losing and make several mistakes that cost you 20bb here and 10bb there. It all adds up and most of us don’t play our best game when we are losing. The cards don’t have “memory”, but if you find yourself in what you feel is a “downswing” it may be affecting you mentally, cut back on the amount of time at the tables and focus more on finding out if you have any additional leaks that are costing you money. Did you get the max value from your good hands? Did you lose the minimum on your bad hands? Were your bluffs in good ‘profitable’ spots? Don’t be lazy and make excuses, check your ego at the door and do your homework. Chances are you can find some leaks in your game that have been there all along but are just now resenting themselves more frequently, so when the cards start falling your way again you can take more advantage as you aren’t losing money in that spot any more.
More info on this:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...nswing-238832/
"Books are worthless."
This one makes me laugh all the time. Do you really think you are going to reach your max potential by ONLY playing the game and figuring it out for yourself? This is why there will always be a gap between the good players and the fish. The fish always will think they have an edge but never do the work, Good players KNOW they have an edge because they research, read, analyze their play and work to get better. Fish think it’s all about “tells and bluffing” good players know how complex the game really is and strive to keep getting better.
"These players will call all of my bets I can’t win here I’m going to move up where they respect my raises."
People joke about this on the forums all the time, but there are a lot of people that truly believe that the higher stakes are easier than the smaller stakes because “people know how to fold”. I personally love this thought process, because it makes us money! Only in poker does someone feel because they can’t beat the worst players in the game, they should risk MORE to play with BETTER players.
"If I give out my Super Secret poker knowledge I won’t be able to win at the tables anymore, the players will just be too good!"
First off, you’re giving yourself far too much credit if you think you know something about Texas Hold’em that no one else knows at this stage. Second for every 1000 players out there, let’s say 100 find their way to your post, out of those 100 chances are only 1 are going to properly be able to properly implement said advice into their game. The other 99 may improve their game via the advice, but people are lazy by nature and will likely half-ass their efforts and just use their new found strategy as an excuse for their bad play. Think about Super System, when that came out the information was revolutionary, many players ran with it and the game overall improved. Several other great players improved their game via that book and later wrote more detailed and advanced concepts based on some of the foundation that was laid out in Super System. Think about all the players that took that advice the wrong way and turned into a spew monkey. With their new found “poker wisdom” they felt more comfortable taking their action to games that were higher stakes.
With that said it can be beneficial to you to help others improve their game. How? You ask. When you help others with their game it forces you to think about things in a much deeper capacity then you thought about it previously. It’s more important to know now WHY you are doing something, not just that “I just do it because that’s how I’ve always done it”. Einstein said it best when he said, “You don’t truly know something until you can teach it to your grandmother” (I’m paraphrasing because I can’t find the exact quote, but you get the point). It’s true you may make more regs in the future and “make the game tougher” but there will never be an end to the supply of fish.
"I’m so much better than everyone at the table that I can get away with X"
In some ways this is correct. If you have a major skill advantage in a game you can open up a bit and play more marginal hands. The catch 22 here is YOU ARE PLAYING MORE MARGINAL HANDS. Obvious right? The point I’m making is when you are overly confident in your play you have a tendency to overlook some spots/edges or make wrong decisions. With that said combining that with opening your range to put yourself in more marginal situations where you have a risk of spewing off a ton of chips is a bad combination. Also it’s easy to start making excuses for your lazy play because the “other players are terrible”.
"He’s winning he must be good I should stay away, He’s losing he must be bad I bet I can pick on him."
Fish think like this all the time at the table. If a guy is winning, regardless of how, even if he is a horrible player and just caught a good run of cards fish tend to stay out of their way a bit more. When a player is losing they tend to give them more action figuring them to be “bad players” or naturally “unlucky”. This is why when you are playing and your winning fish start folding a bit more frequently to your cbets and double barrels. Fish do adjust their game slightly, they just don’t have good logic behind it. The problem with this line of thinking should be obvious, a good player can have a bad run of cards and be losing and a bad player can have a good run of cards and be winning, adjustments to your game should be made by player tendencies not by whether they are winning or losing.
X brings me luck.
The belief of luck is what keeps bad players sitting down with players better than them. Believing that something will make you less likely to win (will actually make you less likely to win as your confidence will be down), however believing you will win becomes of some mystical item will cause you to make illogical decisions. It can be very difficult to not develop bad habits when playing a game where luck is involved. There are times you will make the wrong decision and make money, and times when you will make the right decision and lose money. If you start doing things based on “luck” rather than what you know is mathematically right you will continue to make decisions that will cost you money.
"I’m going to show this great bluff/laydown I made so the table knows how smart I am."
Poker is a game of incomplete information and playing against tendencies of other people. Any information you give away for free gives the opportunity for someone to make the correct play against you in the future. Anytime you show a hand that doesn’t go to showdown you need to consider all of the ramifications. Some players will be extremely observant and remember every action/bet size that you made as well as any potential tells that they suspect. Why give away information for free? You should always be aware what information you are giving up, how it will be interpreted, and most importantly why you are doing it.
"I’m going to raise here to see where I’m at."
Theory of Poker suggests that you make a mistake every time you play a hand differently than you would if you could see the other person’s cards. So with that in mind, you should always bet with the intention that: 1. Worse hands will call (for value), 2. Better hands will fold (bluff), 3. To charge drawing hands to draw. What good does it do for you to make a bet that does not achieve any of this but rather “if he calls me I know I am beat”? If you could see his cards would you raise him if he can only call you with a hand better than yours?
More info:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...ns-bet-645508/
"If I bet big I will scare them away, I need to bet big so he will fold."
Aside from the obvious making it easy to read you by bet sizing. You’re missing out on a lot of value with your big hands, especially against players that are passive, and your bluffs have to work a higher % of the time to be profitable long term. NL Theory and Practice explains this concept better
More info on bet sizing:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...-value-325157/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...t-6max-782706/
Two Plus Two
Re: COTW: Pitfalls of Common Thinking (thinking like a fish)
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